A-League Grand Final Preview and Tips

A-League - Football - Australia

Unfortunately the longshot didn’t get in for us last week. Thought Central Coast was a nice price at $5.25 but Western Sydney proved they were the deserved favourite with a strong 2-0 win.

Hersi opened the scoring for the home side at the half hour mark and then they continued to dominate for the majority of the match. In the last 10 minutes of regular time La Rocca put a nail in Central Coast’s coffin and the game finished on 2-0.

The silver lining from the match was that the game stayed unders with just the 2 goals being scored, so anyone that followed that lead, good work on getting something out of the match.

Then on Sunday afternoon we headed to Brisbane to see the best team in the league host Melbourne Victory. The game could of gone either way at half time, it was 0-0, with Melbourne Victory have the more dominate possession, but Brisbane getting away with the better chances at scoring.

Ironically Berisha (who will play for Melbourne Victory next season) was the one to break the deadlock just before the hour was up. Then came the controversy, in the last 10 minutes Thompson had what looked to the naked eye a goal but it was disallowed, as it was said to have not been 100% over the line. And only a minute or so later Milligan was taken down by a fairly heavy tackle in the box, there were lots on penalty cries but to no avail, it was not meant to be Melbourne Victory’s night. In saying that, Brisbane was a short priced favourite and definitely deserve their place in the Grand Final.

Now Brisbane host Western Sydney in the last match of the season on Sunday afternoon. This should be a great match, I think most would say these are the 2 best teams this season. While you’d think this big match up might be a close one, I think the premiers should be able to take care of Western Sydney without too much trouble.

I’ll have a small Grand Final and season review next week but thanks for all the readers throughout the season, hope you enjoyed the read and most importantly found plenty of winners. If there’s anything that you think would be a good addition for the future let me know.

Best of luck with any bets you have on the Grand Final.

It’s been a fun season.


Best Value: Brisbane at $2.25 with Ladbrokes.

Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers 

Sunday 4 May 4:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium

It’s finally here, the last game of the 2013/14 A League season and we rightfully see the teams that finished 1 and 2 on the ladder face-off. While in other soccer leagues around the world the premiership is the main aim, in Australia we still strive for that one match to decide the overall champion, and this is that match.

Brisbane have been clearly the best team all season and they deserve to have this Grand Final played at their home ground, Suncorp Stadium. They have won 60% of all their games this season and a staggering 73% of their games played at Suncorp, which is a crazy figure and will take them very close to getting over the line in this match. Western Sydney has a pretty good away win record of 35%, but when you compare it to Brisbane’s home record it pales in comparison.

Recent form is pretty even with both teams are coming off nice wins last week in their Semi Finals, both were fairly short favourites, so that’s not too much of a shock, but it’s what you want to see at this time of the year.

For a Grand Final this is looking like a pretty one-sided match, but one thing that brings Western Sydney right back into this match is their head to head record against Brisbane. In Western Sydney’s 2 years in the A League they have come up against Brisbane 7 times, the first 4 times they took all 3 points out of the matches. The latest 3 matches though were 2x Draws and a Brisbane win, so Western Sydney hasn’t been completely dominant, especially over the last few matches.

I was a little surprised when I brought up the markets and seen some rather varying prices. For instance, Brisbane vary from $1.91 up to $2.25, so whomever you are backing, you need to make sure you take the top price. Those prices will no doubt tighten closer to match day though. I think the biggest factor of this game is where it’s being played, being at Suncorp gives such a big advantage to Brisbane, and I don’t think the market is taking it into account as much as it should.

My ratings have Brisbane at $1.83 (market best $2.25), the Draw at $4.05 (market best $3.40) and Western Sydney at $4.84 (market best $3.75), so off those numbers my selection is clear. Brisbane look to not only be value, but great value at that with the $2.25 on offer at Ladbrokes. This is the best value any team has been in quite some time. I know I say this from time to time, but there is no way Brisbane can start at $2.25, that has to shorten and I think it will shorten substantially, probably to around the $2.00 mark (still value in my opinion).

I’ve had a look at the over/under market but it looks to be pretty much split straight down the middle for this match, so will have to leave that alone. I’ll also note a couple of other markets since it’s the last game of the season, while I can’t really quantify how good of value they are, they do interest me a little.

Firstly, I like Brisbane in the H2H market, so I’m also keen on them in the overall winner market at $1.60+, if you want a slightly safer option. I also think they can score early, so if you want a bit bigger price perhaps Brisbane/Brisbane in the HT/FT market might interest you. And finally, the correct score market, which is always so hard, if I had to have a stab it would be Brisbane 2-0 at around the $9.00 mark.

Hopefully Brisbane can win the Grand Final, and in turn leave us with a win in the Grand Final too.

H2H Record:
Brisbane                                1
Draw                                       2
Western Sydney                   4

Rated Prices:
Brisbane                                $1.83
Draw                                       $4.05
Western Sydney                   $4.84

Brisbane                                 $2.25 Ladbrokes
Draw                                        $3.40 Most Bookmakers
Western Sydney                    $3.75 Sportsbet

Best Value: Brisbane at $2.25 with Ladbrokes.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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