A-League Round 17 2016/17 Preview

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.25
I’m really keen on the value here, I couldn’t split Newcastle and Melbourne City, and so the fact that I can get $3.25 about a team in the Draw No Bet market looks great. Melbourne City aren’t the best road team, so Newcastle really should get every chance here, let’s hope they take advantage of it.

Next Best Value
Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.30
I think Brisbane should be well into odds-on against Western Sydney, they’re a superior side, and at home, so I’d be shocked if they didn’t win. $2.30 is very generous and I can’t see that still being around at kickoff time on Saturday.

Best Value: 
1st:    Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.25
2nd:    Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.30
3rd:    Adelaide/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
4th:    Perth – Head to Head – $2.23

         
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

Thursday 26 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium

It’s Australia Day on Thursday, which means it’s time for another Big Blue. To make things more interesting, Melbourne Victory and Sydney are clearly the top two teams at the moment, so it should be some match. Melbourne Victory had a quick backup last week, which meant lots of travel, and in the end I think it might of hurt them. They played Perth away, and things were looking good when they opened up the scoring. With about fifteen minutes left they were still holding onto that 1-0 lead, but things changed in those last fifteen minutes. Perth managed to knock two goals in, leaving Melbourne Victory to fly back home with their tail between their legs, and no points to speak of. Sydney had little trouble dispensing of Adelaide when they hosted them last Friday. They were never put under any real pressure and came away with a comfortable 2-0 win. The home ground advantage really should be enough for Melbourne Victory to get back on their winning way, but Sydney are still yet to lose a game this season, so maybe they can show why they are at the top of the table. I’m more than happy with the $2.43 that is currently available for Melbourne Victory. Being a little wary of Sydney’s form this year, the other option is in the Over/Under market, $1.73 for over 2.5 goals seems quite generous.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne Victory    3
Sydney            1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.15
Sydney            $3.76
Draw            $3.73

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $2.43 Unibet
Sydney            $2.90 Bet365, TopBetta
Draw            $3.50 Sportsbet, William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.57
Sydney            $2.75

Market Price:    
Melbourne Victory    $1.77 Unibet
Sydney            $2.15 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.84
Over            $1.54

Market Price:    
Under            $2.18 Sportsbet
Over            $1.73 Bet365

Value:         Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.43
                   Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $1.77
                  Melbourne Victory/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73

    
Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City

Friday 27 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Coffs International Stadium

We’ve got what looks to be a real tight game on Friday night as Newcastle and Melbourne City face off at the Coffs International Stadium. Newcastle had the tough task of facing Western Sydney away on Sunday and they never really got into the match. Western Sydney dominated from the get-go, and Newcastle ended up succumbing to a 2-0 loss. Melbourne City landed the three points last week, but it wasn’t as easy as they thought it would be. They were an unbackable favourite as they were hosting Central Coast, and on paper they looked a formality. Melbourne City got on the board early, but Central Coast fought back with a goal of their own shortly after. Cahill was the savior for the home side though as his second goal for the match was enough to get them over the line. To be honest, I couldn’t split the two teams, I rated them exactly the same, and am really not sure which way this one will go. Newcastle at $3.25 in the Draw No Bet market definitely looks the best play here; I couldn’t split the sides, so getting that price, in that market looks great.

Last 5 games:    
Newcastle        2
Melbourne City    3
Draw            0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $2.74
Melbourne City    $2.74
Draw            $3.69

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $4.20 Bet365, Unibet
Melbourne City    $1.85 TopBetta
Draw            $3.80 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Newcastle        $2.00
Melbourne City    $2.00

Market Price:    
Newcastle        $3.25 Bet365
Melbourne City    $1.36 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.79
Over            $1.56

Market Price:    
Under            $2.50 William Hill
Over            $1.57 Bet365

Value:         Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $3.25
                   Newcastle – Head to Head – $4.20

    
Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory

Saturday 28 January, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Perth gets an easier task against this week against Central Coast after a good win against Melbourne Victory on Saturday. Central Coast put in a tough performance last week when on the road to Melbourne City. They were a huge underdog, and no one really gave them much of a chance. Unfortunately they lost again, but losing 2-1 to Melbourne City away is a good effort in my books. I do keep on making excuses for them though, this is becoming a common occurrence, and they need to start getting at least a point out of these types of fixtures. Perth’s win against Melbourne Victory last week really showed that they could be a contender going into finals. They were 1-0 down as the game was nearing the end, but two quick goals landed them the win. They need to keep their form strong for the remainder of the season though, because getting home finals will be the key to their success. Off last weeks win I think Perth will be far too good for Central Coast. I’m keen on the price that Perth has gone up too; anything better than even money looks a solid price for them.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast        2
Perth            2
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $4.53
Perth            $1.88
Draw            $4.04

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $3.30 Bet365
Perth            $2.23 Unibet
Draw            $3.60 Everywhere

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast        $3.41
Perth            $1.42

Market Price:    
Central Coast        $2.38 Bet365
Perth            $1.63 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.17
Over            $1.46

Market Price:    
Under            $2.43 Unibet
Over            $1.56 Sportsbet, Unibet

Value:         Perth – Head to Head – $2.23
                   Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.63

    
Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney

Saturday 28 January, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

On Saturday night we have Brisbane hosting Western Sydney at Westpac Stadium. Brisbane had to travel to New Zealand last Saturday as they were facing Wellington who was on the quick backup. I thought it was going to be a pretty tight match, and it definitely played out that way. While Brisbane had a good percentage of the possession, for the majority of the game the scores sat at 0-0. It wasn’t until the last five minutes when Maclaren found the back of the net for Brisbane that broke the deadlock. That win moved them to fourth on the ladder, now they’ll have their eyes on a top three spot. Western Sydney had an easier task as they were hosting Newcastle, a team that doesn’t travel well. Unsurprisingly they came away with a comfortable enough 2-0 victory. They’re still just outside the top six, but a win this week could change all that. Brisbane shouldn’t have any difficulties taking care of Western Sydney here. I’ve liked their recent form, and up at Westpac they’re always extremely competitive. Their price is great too, $2.30 about a team of their class, at home, is good value in my books. Don’t mind the look of Over 2.5 Goals either if you want to attack the match from a different angle.

Last 5 games:    
Brisbane        1
Western Sydney    2
Draw            2

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.62
Western Sydney    $6.16
Draw            $4.50

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $2.30 TopBetta
Western Sydney    $3.20 TopBetta
Draw            $3.55 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane        $1.26
Western Sydney    $4.79

Market Price:    
Brisbane        $1.63 Sportsbet
Western Sydney    $2.28 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.74
Over            $1.58

Market Price:    
Under            $2.10 Sportsbet
Over            $1.80 Everywhere

Value:         Brisbane – Head to Head – $2.30
                   Brisbane – Draw No Bet – $1.63
                   Brisbane/Western Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals

Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix

Sunday 29 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

The round finishes up on Sunday at Hindmarsh Stadium with Adelaide and Wellington going head to head. Adelaide faced off against Sydney, in Sydney, last week, so it was always going to be a big ask for them to come away with anything. Unfortunately they just weren’t up to it and Sydney won the match 2-0. Adelaide never really got into the match either, which isn’t that much or a surprise. Wellington played Brisbane last week, backing-up after playing Melbourne Victory only a few days before. They put up a good fight too, keeping the scores even for nearly the whole match, but Brisbane scored in the last five minutes, to leave Wellington empty handed. This looks like it could go either way, but I have to give the edge to Adelaide, although their ability to win this season, or lack there of is worrying. The best bet in this looks to be the Over 2.5 Goals option, defenses of these sides can be pretty average at times, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see quite a few goals.

Last 5 games:    
Adelaide        3
Wellington        1
Draw            1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $2.38
Wellington        $3.18
Draw            $3.75

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $2.10 Everywhere
Wellington        $3.50 Bet365
Draw            $3.65 Unibet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Adelaide        $1.75
Wellington        $2.34

Market Price:    
Adelaide        $1.54 Unibet
Wellington        $2.50 Bet365

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $3.62
Over            $1.38

Market Price:    
Under            $2.23 Unibet
Over            $1.70 Bet365

Value:         Adelaide/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
                   Wellington – Head to Head – $3.50

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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