A-League Round 20 2017

A-League - Football - Australia

Best Value

Perth – Head to Head – $2.60

I’m really keen on Perth this week. Their performance last week was outstanding, and while it will be hard to replicate that, they only need to play to a fraction of the ability they showed there to get another win on the board. I rated them odds-on Head to Head, so getting $2.60 looks huge in my books.

Next Best Value

Perth/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.61

Next best of the round comes from the same match. Perth scored five goals themselves last week, all they need to do is score three this week to get this bet over the line, and I think they’ll do just that.

Best Value:

1st:       Perth – Head to Head – $2.60

2nd:       Perth/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.61

3rd:       Adelaide/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67

4th:       Western Sydney/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85     

             

Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets

Friday 17 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium

The A-League gets under way on Friday night with what looks a tight one between Adelaide and Newcastle. I’m going to make this pretty short about Adelaide to spare their fans, they were absolutely destroyed last week by Perth. While they did manage to hold onto a decent chunk of the possession, they couldn’t find the goals, whereas Perth found the back of the net an embarrassing five times. Adelaide’s season is well and truly done, and their -22 goal difference shows just how poor a season they’ve had. Newcastle shouldn’t be too upset with their 0-0 draw on Monday night, it was against Melbourne Victory so they were always going to have their work cut out for them. They dominated the shots on goal, but couldn’t convert, but it was a strong performance none-the-less, and they should take a bit of confidence out of it going forward. Really tight one this, I’m giving the slight edge to Adelaide, and that’s purely because of the home ground advantage. The only play that is enticing me in this fixture is the $1.67 for Over 2.5 Goals, I’m pretty confident we’ll see 3+ goals in this one.

Last 5 games: 
Adelaide                      1

Newcastle                   1

Draw                            3

Head to Head

Rated Price:    
Adelaide                      $2.58

Newcastle                   $2.98

Draw                            $3.60

Market Price:  
Adelaide                      $2.38 Bet365, Palmerbet

Newcastle                   $3.20 Sportsbet

Draw                            $3.60 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:    
Adelaide                      $1.87

Newcastle                   $2.15

Market Price:  
Adelaide                      $1.73 Bet365, Sportsbet

Newcastle                   $2.12 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $3.26

Over                            $1.44

Market Price:  
Under                          $2.30 William Hill

Over                            $1.67 Bet365

Value:              Adelaide/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.67

    

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City

Saturday 18 February, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

The tough games keep coming for Wellington, last week it was Sydney, and this round they’re up against Melbourne City. Wellington had to play Sydney away last week, so as you could imagine they were a huge priced underdog. The market was pretty spot on as well, they never really looked like winning and struggled to match the class of Sydney. They ended up going down 3-1, which is pretty accurate for how the match played out. Melbourne City had a rather depleted line-up when they faced Brisbane last Saturday. Things were looking very shaky at one stage as they were sitting 2-0 down with just over thirty minutes on the clock. They regrouped though, and two quick goals later they were right back in it. From that point on neither team could break the deadlock, leaving the teams to share the points on this occasion. Another tight game, but I think Wellington should be able to get it done. I think the price Wellington is good enough too, in my opinion they should be favourite, and the market has it the other way around.

Last 5 games: 
Wellington                  1

Melbourne City           4

Draw                            0

Head to Head

Rated Price:    
Wellington                  $2.57

Melbourne City           $3.00

Draw                            $3.60

Market Price:  
Wellington                  $2.85 Unibet

Melbourne City           $2.40 Bet365, Sportsbet

Draw                            $3.60 Everywhere

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:    
Wellington                  $1.86

Melbourne City           $2.17

Market Price:  
Wellington                  $2.12 Unibet

Melbourne City           $1.75 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:    
Under                          $2.65

Over                            $1.61

Market Price:  
Under                          $2.32 Unibet

Over                            $1.62 Bet365, Palmerbet

Value:              Wellington – Draw No Bet – $2.12

                        Wellington – Head to Head – $2.85

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC

Saturday 18 February, 7:50pm (AEDT) – ANZ Stadium

It’s been a dry spell for Western Sydney in the Sydney Derby of late, they haven’t won any of the last nine fixtures, but they’ll be hoping to turn that stat around this Saturday. Western Sydney, where do you start, I thought Adelaide losing 5-0 at home to Perth was bad, I don’t think Western Sydney’s effort of losing 2-0 at home to Central Coast is any better. Prior to this match they were coming of a solid win, so I think it surprised many when they couldn’t get the better of Central Coast. They seemed to control a lot of the play, but just couldn’t put it all together in the final third. Sydney did what they do better than any other team and won last week. They were at home to Wellington so the three points looked a formality before they even stepped on the pitch. It didn’t take them long to flex their muscles either as Grant opened the scoring only three minutes after kickoff. They ended up winning 3-1, and are now eleven points clear at the top of the table, in my opinion enough to take out the Premiership. Sydney should have no issues continuing their winning form, and their recent dominance in the Sydney Derby. Market looks bang on with the Head to Head prices, so going to go with the Over 2.5 Goals option again, Sydney have been covering that themselves most games anyway.

Last 5 games: 
Western Sydney          0

Sydney                         3

Draw                            2

Head to Head

Rated Price:    
Western Sydney          $4.50

Sydney                         $1.91

Draw                            $3.95

Market Price:  
Western Sydney          $3.60 Everywhere

Sydney                         $2.05 Sportsbet

Draw                            $3.60 William Hill

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:    
Western Sydney          $3.36

Sydney                         $1.42

Market Price:  
Western Sydney          $2.65 Unibet

Sydney                         $1.50 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:  
Under                          $2.65

Over                            $1.61

Market Price:  
Under                          $2.05 William Hill

Over                            $1.85 Unibet

Value:              Western Sydney/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.85

       

Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar

Saturday 18 February, 10:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

Perth will be hoping they can keep the momentum going this week when they face Brisbane after last weeks demolition job of Adelaide. Perth really did rip Adelaide apart, something that is rarely seen by an away side. La Rocca conceded an early and Perth took that advantage and ran. Throughout the game they fired off nineteen shots, and four of them bulged the net, giving Perth a brilliant 5-0 win. It’s hard to see them play that good again, but I’m sure they’ll be full of confidence and ready to serve it right up this week. Brisbane were away to Melbourne City last week, and while usually this would be a pretty difficult fixture, Melbourne City were without most of their starting eleven. Brisbane couldn’t take advantage of this though, only managing a draw. They got off to a great start with Maclaren banging in two goals, but lapses in defense allowed Melbourne City back into the match. A draw is better than a loss, but they’ll know that was an opportunity missed. I can’t not tip Perth after that win last week, anything close to that gets them all three points again. Think the $2.60 is a luxury too, I have them odds-on.

Last 5 games: 
Perth                            2

Brisbane                      3

Draw                            0

Head to Head

Rated Price:    
Perth                            $1.91

Brisbane                      $4.33

Draw                            $4.07

Market Price:  
Perth                            $2.60 Unibet

Brisbane                      $2.70 William Hill

Draw                            $3.50 Everywhere

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:    
Perth                            $1.44

Brisbane                      $3.27

Market Price:  
Perth                            $1.90 William Hill

Brisbane                      $1.92 Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:    
Under                          $4.72

Over                            $1.27

Market Price:  
Under                          $2.38 Unibet

Over                            $1.61 Sportsbet, Palmerbet

Value:              Perth – Head to Head – $2.60

                        Perth – Draw No Bet – $1.90

                        Perth/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.61

 

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 19 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Last game of Round 20 is Central Coast and Melbourne Victory who go head to head at Bluetongue Stadium. Central Coast continued their excellent form with an unexpected 2-0 away win against Western Sydney. They went into the game as a massive underdog, but they didn’t look at the bookie markets, they just went out there and played football. We’re now through nineteen games this season and Central Coast has only won four, but three of those have come in their last three matches, it really is an astonishing form turnaround. Melbourne Victory would of been hoping to get three points last week when they headed up to Newcastle to match Sydney efforts, but it wasn’t to be. It was a hard fought ninety minutes, and by the time the final whistle came, no team had managed to break the deadlock, so they had to share the points. This now means Melbourne Victory are eleven points from Sydney at the top of the table, and the Premiership is now just about out of reach for them. Melbourne Victory should be able to put an end to Central Coast’s winning streak, and they really need to if they want to keep in touch of Sydney. Melbourne Victory would have to be well off their game if they were to drop any points here, granted Central Coast has been good, but this is the next level. Market is spot on here, so think I’ll be sitting out, hopefully you’ve already got a wallet-full after the first four games.

Last 5 games: 
Central Coast              0

Melbourne Victory      1

Draw                            4

Head to Head

Rated Price:    
Central Coast              $6.79

Melbourne Victory      $1.60

Draw                            $4.41

Market Price:  
Central Coast              $6.00 Bet365

Melbourne Victory      $1.60 William Hill

Draw                            $4.40 Unibet

Draw No Bet

Rated Price:
Central Coast              $5.25

Melbourne Victory      $1.24

Market Price:  
Central Coast              $4.40 Unibet

Melbourne Victory      $1.22 Sportsbet, William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rated Price:   
Under                          $2.57

Over                            $1.64

Market Price:  
Under                          $2.75 Unibet

Over                            $1.48 Bet365

Value:              No value

Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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