A-League Round 25

A-League - Football - Australia

YEAH, last week was about as good as it gets. Both selections landed, including Central Coast at a massive $4.33, also the suggested overs in the Adelaide/Sydney game was never in doubt with 4 goals being scored. It was a good weekend.

Adelaide were rated an odds-on chance against Sydney and they didn’t let their supporters down, getting it done easily winning 3-1. This result was a good one for us with the overs landing easily.

While the Newcastle/Wellington went to plan with Newcastle winning (had them rated an even money shot), I didn’t expect it to be a 5-0 belting that’s for sure. Although this game probably has little to do with the finals fixture, it was interesting to see Newcastle be so dominate.

Then it was time for the first of the games that actually had some good value in it. Brisbane hosted Melbourne Victory and the very lucrative price of $1.70 was offered about them. While it did take them till injury time to break the dead lock, they did, and in turn landed the first selection of the weekend.

On Sunday we had the other value game, which had our best value of the round in Central Coast heading to Victoria to face off with Melbourne Heart with the whopping price of $4.33 (I got tweets from a few readers saying that got even better than that) available. Central Coast managed to come away with a 2-1 victory, which I must say I was very happy with, it finished off a great weekend.

Final game for the round was Western Sydney hosting Perth, they won 3-0 and never looked in doubt, I had them rated $1.54 so I didn’t expect any less.

Off to Round 25, I think there is value in 4 out of the 5 games this week, so let’s hope we keep winning rolling and continue this good form, 5 out of the last 6 weeks have been winning ones, lets make it 6 out of 7.

Best of luck.

@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: Wellington at $3.10 with Sportingbet.

Second Best Value: Central Coast at $2.88 with Betstar. 

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Heart

Friday 28 March 7:00pm (local) – Suncorp Stadium

We kick off Round 25 with the top of the table Brisbane, hosting the ninth placed Melbourne Heart, as you can probably guess I can only see this game going one way. First thing of the bat I noticed is that when Brisbane hosted Melbourne Victory last week (third on the ladder) they were $1.70, and that was value, and this week they are $1.67, shouldn’t that be a lot lower? Brisbane are building a crazy good home record this season, winning 75% of their matches, that’s as good as it gets. Melbourne Heart on the road are sitting at 9%, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to realize how much of a lock Brisbane look to be in this one. I have the home team down at $1.51, I don’t get them much shorter than that and as I mentioned earlier, $1.67 is available. That’s great value, I don’t know what Betstar are thinking putting up that price.

Last 5 games:
Brisbane                                     2
Draw                                            0
Melbourne Heart                       3

Rated Prices:
Brisbane                                      $1.51
Draw                                            $4.83
Melbourne Heart                       $7.66

Market:
Brisbane                                     $1.67 Betstar
Draw                                            $3.85 Sportingbet, TAB
Melbourne Heart                       $6.00 Sportingbet, TAB

Best Value: Brisbane at $1.67 with Betstar.

Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 29 March 5:30pm (local) – Bluetongue Stadium

Now this is an interesting match, the fourth placed Central Coast play host to the second on the ladder Western Sydney. I like the look of this match, Central Coast got the chocolates as an underdog last week against Melbourne Heart, and I think they might be able to do it again. I’m pretty surprised most bookmakers have Western Sydney as favourite actually, Central Coast is as low at $2.50 in some markets, but most have them as the underdog. Central Coast win over half of their games at Bluetongue Stadium and that’s good enough to me to suggest they’ll give Western Sydney a real go for their money. I’ve surprisingly had them all the way down at $2.13, so that makes the $2.88 on offer at Betstar a luxurious price. I actually have them as the second best value of the round. As a possible side bet, in the 6 times these teams have played each other there has never been more than 2 goals scored, no reason to think that won’t continue, so unders looks pretty enticing too.

Last 5 games:
Central Coast                         2
Draw                                        1
Western Sydney                    2

Rated Prices:
Central Coast                         $2.13
Draw                                        $3.78
Western Sydney                    $3.77

Market:
Central Coast                         $2.88 Betstar
Draw                                        $3.30 Sportsbet, Sportingbet, TAB
Western Sydney                    $2.70 Sportingbet

Best Value: Central Coast at $2.88 with Betstar.

  

Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC

Saturday 29 March 7:45pm (local) – AAMI Park

Saturday night we have one of the big rivalries, both in A League and by their citizens in general, Melbourne Vs Sydney. Sydney have now actually dropped out of a finals position (by goal difference) so they will be desperate to get something out of this game, but this game is just as important to Melbourne Victory. They are now sitting in third position, the last of the home final spots, but they are equal in both points and goal difference with Central Coast, so they can’t afford to drop points while at home. They have one of the better home records in the league and that should take them a long way to getting all 3 points against their big rivals. What will be in the back of both teams heads is that the last time they met Sydney dropped a 5-0 hammering on them, this will give Sydney confidence, but will also leave the home team wanting revenge. The market is a little all over the place with this match, while Melbourne Victory is as much as $2.00 at some places, they are also as low as $1.83 at others. Unfortunately my rating is right in the middle of those at $1.96, which means this is a sit back and watch game for me. This game could have a fair influence on the make up of the finals so it will be one to watch.

Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory                2
Draw                                       1
Sydney                                   2

Rated Prices:
Melbourne Victory               $1.96
Draw                                      $4.11
Sydney                                  $4.07

Market:
Melbourne Victory              $2.00 TAB
Draw                                     $3.60 Betstar, TAB
Sydney                                 $4.15 Sportingbet

Best Value: Nothing. 

Wellington v Adelaide FC

Sunday 30 March 3:00pm (local) – Westpac Stadium

For the first of our 2 Sunday games we have to head across the Tasman to see Wellington hosting Adelaide. Wellington are coming off an embarrassing 5-0 loss to Newcastle and I’m sure will be looking to redeem themselves back in front of their home crowd. Adelaide have been getting better and better as the season has progressed and that was highlighted by their 3-1 win over Sydney last week. But on the downside their away record has been very average all year, only winning 2 games. Both teams are in “touch and go” spots for making the finals and they’ll be playing there hardest to the final whistle, which should make for a decent spectacle to the neutral bystander. The prices that are floating around have surprised me, I firstly would of thought Wellington would come up as favourite, not sure how they aren’t, anyway. Also, they are as low as $2.50 with some bookies, while you can get $3.10 with Sportingbet, which I know is where I’ll be heading. I think it is great value for a home team that is desperate for all 3 points, I actually have it as the best value of the round. Another little point of note is that the last 6 times these teams have faced off the game has gone overs, so expect the same to happen again, plenty of goals hopefully.

Last 5 games:
Wellington                           1
Draw                                     1
Adelaide                               3

Rated Prices:
Wellington                            $2.09
Draw                                      $3.81
Adelaide                               $3.85

Market:
Wellington                            $3.10 Sportingbet
Draw                                      $3.50 TAB
Adelaide                                $2.50 TAB

Best Value: Wellington at $3.10 with Sportingbet.

Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 30 March 4:00pm (local) – NIB Stadium

We finish Sunday off as far away from the previous game as possible as Newcastle head over to Perth as they try and lock in their finals position. It’s hard to know what to make of this game, while Newcastle will be trying their hardest to get something out of this game, I’m not so sure the same can be said for Perth, with their season now all but over. If they are giving 100% I definitely think they can give this a real shake. Perth have a little bit of an edge over Newcastle in recent times, the last time Newcastle actually managed to beat them was way back in November in 2011 and I’m sure both teams will know that. Newcastle couldn’t of been more impressive last week when they tore apart Wellington, giving them a 5-0 hiding. Perth on the other hand was the recipient of somewhat of a hiding, losing 3-0 to Western Sydney, but most expected that kind of result. This is another match where the prices are a little all over the place, Sportingbet have once again gone up top price at $3.00, but others have them as low as $2.50. I actually have them a tiny bit lower again at $2.39, so the $3.00 that is available is very generous in my eyes. Pretty keen with this match too, so hopefully we round out the weekend with a couple of $3.00 winners on a Sunday.

Last 5 games:
Perth                                  4
Draw                                  1
Newcastle                         0

Rated Prices:
Perth                                  $2.39
Draw                                  $3.85
Newcastle                         $3.10

Market:
Perth                                  $3.00 Sportingbet
Draw                                  $3.45 TAB
Newcastle                         $2.55 TAB

Best Value: Perth at $3.00 with Sportingbet.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

AL

I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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