It’s that time of the year again, AFL and NRL have wrapped up so it’s time to turn our focus to the round ball version of football, A-League is back! It’s great to be back writing weekly previews for TheProfits, it’s my fifth season and I think I’m really starting to get the hang of it.
Once again, I’ll be focusing on Head to Head, Over/Under 2.5 Goals and the Draw No Bet markets as these are the biggest, and most popular markets. There’s always a variety of bookmakers offering them, as well as you can be sure to get a bet on, which isn’t always the case with some of the more unusual bet types.
Each week I’ll provide a preview of each game and which way I see the result going. I’ll then add in the best odds available for each team and the betting options I’m looking at, followed by my rated prices, then highlight where I think the best value in the match is.
Previous years I’ve done a quick write-up on suggested futures plays, but I’m not going to lie, looking back on those tips over the past couple of years, they’ve stunk worse than I do after a three-day bender. So, I’ll leave that out this year and just head straight into Round 1, hopefully it won’t take long for us to sort out which teams have progressed through the off-season, and which ones are still hungover from their “Mad Mondays”.
Best Value
Central Coast/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73
All the value looks to be in the Over/Under market in the opening round of A-League competition, and the game at Bluetongue Stadium is no different. Both these sides are renowned for letting plenty of goals through, so the $1.70 for Over 2.5 Goals looks more than enough for me to have an interest here.
Next Best Value
Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
The match over in New Zealand on Sunday arvo looks a cracking one that I couldn’t split either way, so I’ve gone looking at the total goals market to find an edge. Once again the Over 2.5 Goals looks really enticing at $1.90, I had it marked a lot shorter in a match which should have quite a few goals put away.
Best Value:
1st: Central Coast/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73
2nd: Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
3rd: Melbourne Victory/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar
Friday 6 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The 2017/18 A-League gets under way on Friday night at AAMI Park in a fantastic looking match between Melbourne City and Brisbane. Both of these sides had really strong seasons last year making it to the finals, but neither could go all of the way. They’ve both made some new additions to their respective sides looking for that edge that can bump them up to the top echelon this year. At first I thought this would be a hard match to split the teams, but Melbourne City always save their best football for at home, so I think they’ll be able to nab the chocolates in this one. I’ve rated the home side $1.99, but the best price around is $2.05 which isn’t enough of an edge for my liking. If they drift out a bit further I’d be interested, but at the current prices I have to sit out.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 1
Brisbane 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.99
Brisbane $4.08
Draw $3.96
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.05 William Hill, Unibet
Brisbane $3.40 Everywhere
Draw $3.75 Bet365, Sportsbet, TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.49
Brisbane $3.05
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.52 Palmerbet
Brisbane $2.74 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.35 Unibet
Over $1.62 Palmerbet
Value: No value
Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 7 October, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
We head to the Central Coast on Sunday afternoon as the Newcastle Jets take on the Mariners. These were two of the most underwhelming teams from last season, but after a few seasons at the bottom of the table I’m thinking Central Coast might be able to improve on that this year. I still don’t expect them to be a realistic finals chance, but hope they’re at least fighting for a finals spot at the pointy end of the season. At home to Newcastle Round 1 gives Central Coast every possible chance to kick the season off with a flying start and I think that they could win this one 2-1 or 3-1. At $2.45 they are still a little short for me head to head, so I’m more inclined to go with the $1.70 for Over 2.5 Goals to be scored.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 1
Newcastle 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.35
Newcastle $3.21
Draw $3.80
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.45 Unibet
Newcastle $2.88 Bet365
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $1.73
Newcastle $2.36
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.79 Unibet
Newcastle $2.04 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.15
Over $1.46
Market Price:
Under $2.12 Unibet
Over $1.73 Bet365
Value: Central Coast/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Saturday 7 October, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium
The obvious highlight of the opening round of fixtures was reserved for Saturday night at Etihad Stadium. It’s the Grand Final rematch from last season between Melbourne Victory and Sydney. As we all know Sydney won that match, but they had to go all the way to penalties to win the trophy. In saying that they probably under performed as they had one of the most impressive A-League seasons I’ve seen. Going forward I’m going to be on Sydney’s side, but as this game is at home I think Melbourne Victory get a chance to exact some revenge on their notorious foe. The $2.80 that’s around is almost a good enough price too, but again the Over 2.5 goals market is were I want my money invested, with Melbourne Victory home games averaging well over 3 goals a game.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 1
Sydney 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.58
Sydney $2.91
Draw $3.71
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.80 Bet365
Sydney $2.60 Unibet
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.89
Sydney $2.13
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.00 William Hill, Bet365
Sydney $1.88 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.94
Over $1.52
Market Price:
Under $2.23 Sportsbet
Over $1.70 Palmerbet
Value: Melbourne Victory/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United
Sunday 8 October, 3:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
For what will probably be a couple of the lower ranked teams this season, this looks like a cracker of a match that could go either way. After lackluster seasons from both Wellington and Adelaide they’ll be looking to kickoff season 2017/18 with three points. To be honest this was the toughest match for me all weekend, and I couldn’t split them. I chalked them up $2.73 the pair and don’t think either really deserves to be favourite over the other. It wasn’t a surprise to see the odds of the two sides only $0.40 apart, even though I was hoping for a bit more variance to give us an edge. Another game, another time I think the Over 2.5 Goals has been underestimated. At $1.90 I’m more than happy to play here.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 0
Adelaide 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.73
Adelaide $2.73
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Wellington $2.50 TopBetta
Adelaide $2.90 William Hill
Draw $3.60 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.00
Adelaide $2.00
Market Price:
Wellington $1.76 Palmerbet, Unibet
Adelaide $2.10 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.45
Over $1.69
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.90 William Hill
Value: Wellington/Adelaide – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.90
Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory
Sunday 8 October, 6:0pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium
The final game of Round 1 is at Spotless Stadium as Western Sydney host Perth. This is another interesting game with two teams that have the squads to play deep into finals this year. History shows that these are even fixtures too with three of the last five games ending in a draw, the other two games split one a piece. I have no doubt Western Sydney should be favourite, but the market has them a lot shorter than I think they should be. Perth at $3.60 really interests me, but it’s not quite enough value for me, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drift a little further, and then I’d jump on. They’re a strong side that I expect to go far this year.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Perth 1
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.32
Perth $3.36
Draw $3.69
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.10 TopBetta
Perth $3.60 Bet365
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.69
Perth $2.45
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.50 William Hill
Perth $2.63 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.57
Over $1.64
Market Price:
Under $2.12 Unibet
Over $1.77 Sportsbet
