The tips went well last week with 8 from 9 with only the Cats letting us down in the final game. As per the right up, we did give the Roos a good chance and had them at the Line. With 6/9 on the $1.92 lines, there was a nice profit to be made if you went with those also.
As always, we love to hear your feedback and thoughts so @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
St Kilda Saints ($1.42) vs Fremantle Dockers ($2.95) – Friday 7:50pm AEST – 20/04/2012
Recent clashes: Saints have won 8 of the last 9 games with a 41 point win in ROund 20 last year to the Saints
AFL Tipping: 81% Saints 19% Fremantle
Game preview: A big test for Fremantle. They dominated Brisbane at home last week yet only managed a 29 point win. The skills in that game were disappointing and if they bring it into this game they will lose. St Kilda on the other hand were silky smooth and beat a Bulldogs team who were woeful in front of goal. Hayden Ballantyne is a welcome sight back into the Fremantle side this week. Both these teams are very close in skills but the match being at ES should mean that St Kilda have the advantage.
St Kilda by 23 points
Line: St Kilda -17.5
Carlton Blues ($1.10) vs Essendon Bombers ($7.00) – Saturday 1:45pm AEST – 21/04/2012
Recent clashes: Essendon have won 6 of the last 9 but Carlton won last year in round 18 by 74!
AFL Tipping: 93% Carlton 7% Essendon
Game preview: The Bombers lose Carlisle to soreness and drop Dyson and Reimers while Lonergan and Hooker come back in. Dempsey is questionable this week after last weeks injury also. Carlton drop Armfield and McLean gets a call up. Essendon will need to get a VERY good start to have a chance in this match. It’s not often that you get three games into a season and a team on maximum points is a $7 underdog, but to be fair, it is a deserved price. Carlton will be too good here and will beat them in the long run. It may be close at stages.
Carlton by 42 points
Line: Carlton -40.5
Collingwood Magpies ($1.22) vs Port Adelaide Power ($4.30) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 21/04/2012
Recent clashes: Pies have won 5 of the last 6 with a Round 20 138 point win keeping Port to just 21 points!
AFL Tipping: Collingwood 95% Port Adelaide 5%
Game preview: This is an interesting game now with Thomas, Shaw, Reid and Ball all out with injuries and Wood dropped. In comes Johnson who doesn’t play well underdone and 4 other youngsters get another go. Port Adelaide welcome back Butcher and Renouf with Pfeiffer starting in his first game. Before the late outs for Pies, this looked like it would be a close game and the Pies should kick away in the final QTR. Now, you just can’t be so sure. This will be a VERY close game and Butcher will have a field day with 0 defenders on him and Shultz! Pendas will bounce back and have a big game this week you have to feel.
Pies by 10 points
Line: Port Adelaide +36.5 (Now into +28.5)
Adelaide Crows ($1.01) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants ($26.00) – Saturday 4:10pm ACST – 21/04/2012
Recent clashes: First match
AFL Tipping: 99% Adelaide 1% GWS
Game preview: Adelaide have been hugely overrated this year and they were shown up last week by the Hawks. Johncock, Otten, Lynch and Kerridge all out with McKernan, Jaensch and Wright in for Adelaide while Edwards and McDonald come in for GWS with Greene and Cameron rested. They will win this game and they will win it well. That being said, we are not sure they will get close to the line!
Adelaide by 60 points
Line: GWS +90.5
West Coast Eagles ($1.75) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($2.10) – Saturday 5:40pm AWST – 21/04/2012
Recent clashes: Hawks have won 5 of the last 7 but Eagles won 2 of last 3 at home. Hawks won only H&A match last year in Tasmania by 7 points.
AFL Tipping: 67% West Coast 33% Hawthorn
Game preview: Probably the match of the round. We will be looking forward to this all weekend. The Hawks lose Breust due to the concussion last week with Hill coming in for a game. Eagles drop Stevens, Brown and lose Dalziell to knee injury while Glass, Priddis and Rosa all come back in. This game will be won and lost in the midfield for the Hawks as we feel the Eagles have the height in the forward line to score some very easy goals. The Eagles will dominate the ruck in this game. We have the feeling that the Hawks will need to start very well and be ahead at half time to be in this match as West Coast usually start very well and hold out. This will be a close one.
West Coast by 12 points
Line: West Coast -4.5 (Prefer Eagles 1-39 at $2.55)
Brisbane Lions($1.35) vs Gold Coast Suns ($3.20) – Saturday 7:40pm AEST – 21/04/2012
Recent clashes: 1 win each with Brisbane beating the suns by 62 in the previous clash in round 21
AFL Tipping: 75% Brisbane to 25% Gold Coast
Game preview: Gold Coast looked really good last week against the Bombers while the Lions were pathetic against Fremantle with under 20 inside 50s. Leuenberger is a massive out for the Lions but Black, Hudson and Cornelius are good ins. Campbell Brown is a good in for this game with Maverick Weller and deserved out. This one will go down to the wire and we think the Suns have a really good shot at winning this. Gold Coast won’t get many better chances to get a win on the board this year and they already have a win over the Lions from last year.
Gold Coast by 2 points
Line: Gold Coast +20.5
Geelong Cats ($1.18) vs Richmond Tigers ($4.90) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST – 22/04/2012
Recent clashes: Cats have won the last 7 games against Tigers including a 62 point win in round 18 last year.
AFL Tipping: 96% Geelong 4% Richmond
Game preview: Geelong were poor last week. Listen to this list. The cats are missing Menzel, Varcoe, Vardy, Wojcinski, Mackie, Kelly and Scarlett in this game. That is a big injury/suspension list. The Tigers on the other hand have a close to full-strength team. The Cats were absolutely killed by the Tigers in preseason. We attended the game and the Cats had a good team in similar to the strength of this one. Don’t discount the Tigers here, they have a really good shot. The big thing working against them is the Tigers past efforts and dominance at home.
Geelong by 7 points
Line: Tigers +32.5
Sydney Swans ($1.80) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($2.00) – Sunday 3:15pm AEST – 22/04/2012
Recent clashes: Swans have won 5 of the last 6 JUST getting over the line by 1 point in their last meeting round 10 last year.
AFL Tipping: 79% Sydney 21% North Melbourne
Game preview: North Melbourne were impressive last week. We went to the game and even though the cats were woeful, the Roos were working well with their structure. The big disappointment was McIntosch in front of goal for them if we were to bring anything away from the game. Their backline were beaten fairly easy by Hawkins and Pods also in marking contests, but every team this year has been. Adam Goodes is a BIG out for the Swans this week. Both teams have near full-strength squads. We are going for the underdog here in the Roos. They should adjust very well to the wet conditions up in Sydney.
North Melbourne by 15 points
Line: North Melbourne +2.5
Melbourne Demons ($3.05) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.38) – Sunday 4:40pm AEST – 22/04/2012
Recent clashes: Bulldogs have won 6 of last 7 games including round 15 thumping at ES by 64 points.
AFL Tipping: 87% Western Bulldogs 13% Melbourne
Game preview: Both teams have some interesting changes. Lake is suspended and Smith has been rested this week while Veszpremi, Sherman, Wallis, Dickson and Austin come in for the Dogs. Grimes has been suspended for the Dees and Martin dropped while Moloney, Petterd, Macdonald, Couch and Fitzpartrick are back in for the demons. The Demons have been absolutely WOEFUL this year but sadly, the doggies have not been much better. The only positive is that the dogs hung into the game against the Crows in Adelaide where as the Dees were beaten by over 40 by the lions in round 1. The Bulldogs need a win and will find it here.
Western Bulldogs by 20 points
Line: Western Bulldogs -19.5
Port Adelaide +36.5 (Into +28.5) at $1.92
West Coast Eagles 1-39 at $2.55
Richmond Tigers +32.5 at $1.92
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet