2011 AFL Finals – Week 1

AFL 2017

Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.

Games
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks – Friday 7:45pm AEST
Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles – Saturday 2:20pm AEST
St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans – Saturday 7:20pm AEST
Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers – Sunday 2:40pm AEST

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Geelong Cats ($1.68) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($2.19)
Recent clashes: Geelong won both the games this year by 19 and 5 points.

Stats
Hawthorn averages 18 more kicks per game
Geelong averages 10 more handballs per game
Hawthorn averages 9 more marks per game
Geelong averages 2 more scoring shots per game
Geelong averages 2 more tackles per game
Hawthorn averages 1 more hitouts per game
Geelong averages 22.80 disposals per goal
Hawthorn averages 25.36 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Geelong: IN: Lonergan, Stokes – OUT: Byrnes, Milburn – (Noteable) Joel Corey & Cameron Mooney not included in squad
Hawthorn: IN: Bailey, Birchall, Franklin, Hodge, Lewis, Sewell, Rioli, Burgoyne – OUT: Ellis, Ladson, Johnson, Lisle, Savage, Stratton, Cheney, Bruce

The Verdict
Cats have had the wood over the Hawks since that Grand Final loss in 2008 and have been the better side all year. The Cats will be too good and win again in a fairly close game.
Geelong by 18 points

Betting Options
First goal scorer: Brad Ottens at $41 and Lance Franklin at $8 (Please note with Centrebet, if your player doesn’t kick the first goal of the match, but kicks the first goal of the 2nd, 3rd or 4th QTR, they will refund your bet)
Most Disposals: Kelly at $7.50 (GROUP1) (On Centrebet, if he scores over 30 disposals, and loses, you get a refund!)
3 Units Geelong 1-39 at $2.19
0.5 Unit Hawthorn 1-24 at $3.85

*Please note: Geelong has not lost by over 24 points all year – the Hawthorn 1-24 is a saver bet*

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Collingwood Magpies ($1.19) vs West Coast Eagles ($4.75)
Recent clashes: Collingwood won the clash eariler this year at the MCG by 52 points

Stats
Collingwood averages 28 more kicks per game
Collingwood averages 5 more handballs per game
Collingwood averages 5 more marks per game
Collingwood averages 3 more scoring shots per game
Both teams average 70 tackles per game
West Coast averages 17 more hitsouts per game
Collingwood averages 22.47 disposals per goal
West Coast averages 24.55 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Collingwood: IN: Davis, Maxwell, Shaw – OUT: Wood, Sinclair, Fasolo
West Coast Eagles: IN: Kerr, Schofield – OUT: Smith, McGinnity

The Verdict
You have to question the fitness of Maxwell and Shaw slotting back into the team. You also have to question Collingwood playing one ruckman. They are going to get killed in the ruck. The stats and ground tell us that the Pies will win, but we think it will be closer than the ‘experts’ suggest.
Collingwood by 12 points

Betting Options
First goal scorer: Travis Cloke at $8, Luke Ball at $41 and Ben Johnston at $41 (Please note with Centrebet, if your player doesn’t kick the first goal of the match,  but kicks the first goal of the 2nd, 3rd or 4th QTR, they will refund your bet)
Most Disposals: Swan at $2.10 (GROUP1) (On Centrebet, if he scores over 30 disposals, and loses, you get a refund!)
2 units Collingwood 1-39 at $2.17

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St Kilda Saints ($1.37) vs Sydney Swans ($3.10)
Recent clashes: The Swans beat St Kilda 83 to 68 in Round 22 at ANZ Stadium (Swans kicked 10 goals 23!!!). Saints went into the game without a few key players due to gastro

Stats
St Kilda averages 4 more kicks per game
St Kilda averages 26 more handballs per game
St Kilda averages 21 more marks per game
Sydney averages 2 more scoring shots per game
Sydney averages 9 more tackles per game
Sydney averages 7 more hitouts per game
Sydney averages 27.94 disposals per goal
St Kilda averages 29.41 disposals per goal

Team Changes
St Kilda: IN: Armitage – OUT: Gardiner
Sydney: IN: Roberts-Thomson, Reid – OUT: Malceski, Jetta

The Verdict
Both teams have been in good form of late but it has to be said that St Kilda are travelling the better. With the game being played in Melbourne at Ethiad, we have to give the nod to St Kilda in this game. The stats suggest they will also be too good. The only chance Sydney have is by kicking straight throughout the game. Something they have struggled to do all year.
St Kilda by 26 points

Betting Options
First   goal scorer: Nick Riewoldt at $9 (Please note with Centrebet, if your player doesn’t kick the first goal of the match,  but kicks the first goal of the 2nd, 3rd or 4th QTR,  they will refund your bet)
2 Units St Kilda 1-39 at $2.21
*Disposals unavailable until Saturday*

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Carlton Blues ($1.36) vs Essendon Bombers ($3.15)
Recent clashes: The first meeting eariler in the year was a draw. Carlton beat Essendon in Round 18 by 74 points.

Stats
Carlton averages 17 more kicks per game
Both teams average 154 handballs per game
Carlton averages 13 more marks per game
Carlton averages 2 more scoring shots per game
Both teams average 71 tackles per game
Both teams average 42 hitouts per game
Essendon averages 24.23 disposals per goal
Carlton averages 25.86 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Carlton: IN: Bower, Carrazzo, Thronton, Jamison, Ellart – OUT: Russell, Kreuzer
Essendon: IN: Byson, Fletcher, Hocking, Lonergan, Bellchambers – OUT: Welsh, Hooker

The Verdict
On stats, this game is closer than you would expect. While the Blues have a few people on the long-term injury list and are lacking a forwardline with Kreuzer ruled out, we still feel the small kids can get Carlton over the line against what will be a determined Essendon team.
Carlton by 16 points

Betting Options
2 Units Carlton 1-39 at $2.22
*First Goal Scorer and most Disposals unavailable until Saturday*

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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