2011 AFL Round 12 Game Preview

Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.

Team with the BYE
Port Adelaide Power

St Kilda Saints ($1.53) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.52) – Friday 7:40pm AEST
Ladder position: St Kilda 11th Western Bulldogs 13th
Saints have won the last 3 meetings

What the stats say
Saints are taking 83 marks a game compared to Doggies 77.
Saints are averaging 23 scoring shots to Doggies 23.
Both teams are averaging around 68 tackles a game and 36 hitouts a game.
Saints are averaging a goal every 31 disposals compared Doggies 28.
Boyd gets the most disposals of any player in the game averaging 30.9 and Griffen is 15th in the league with 26.2
Saints only have two in the top 50 with Dal Santo getting 25.2 and Montagna getting 25.1.. who as we know is not playing.
Daniel Giansiracusa (WB) and Sam Fisher (ST Kilda) are 26th and 28th in league for Marks with 6.4 and 6.5 per game. No other players are in the top 50 which is concerning for both teams.
Bulldogs have three players in the top 25 of Inside 50s with Griffen(1st), Boyd(6th) and Cooney (23rd) all in the team with only Alistair Smith from St Kilda making the top 25(17th) and NOT playing.
Take a guess who is the Saints next best for Inside 50’s. Yep, Montagna with 4.2 per game in 42nd.

Key game changes
Montagna is a big out for the Saints who already miss their best player in Hayes, out for the year.
Bulldogs welcome back in Cooney, Stack and Liberatore to name a few good men while losing Hargrave (big loss), Lake (small loss), Hill (small loss) and a few others.

Who will win?
St Kilda have proven nothing to us this year. They have only beaten two teams with huge injuries in Melbourne and Fremantle and one (only just) without a team – Brisbane.
Bulldogs have also only beaten some pretty poor teams in Brisbane, Richmond and Gold Coast.
St Kilda are lacking in the midfield department and we are tipping a close game.
LATE TIP CHANGE TO St Kilda by 9 points

Betting Option
Bulldogs +43.5 at $1.21

Adelaide Crows ($2.35) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.60) – Saturday 2:10PM ACST (2:40AEST)
Ladder position: Adelaide 14th West Coast Eagles 6th
Crows have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

What the stats say
Eagles are averaging 4 more handballs and 10 more kicks a game.
Both teams are averaging a decent 90 marks a game.
Crows average a poor 61 tackles while Eagles average 60.
Crows have been wasteful with disposals needing 30 per goal compared to West Coasts 26.
Finally, Eagles have been killing it in the ruck averaging 51 hitouts compared to Adelaides high 44.

Key game changes
No big changes for Adelaide while Ebert, Kerr and Butler come back into the Eagles squad.

Who will win?
Adelaide have lost their last three games by 47, 40 and 43. We see this trend continuing with West Coast getting up.
West Coast by 28 points

Betting options
West Coast +21.5 at $1.23

Gold Coast Suns ($3.45) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.31) – Saturday 7:10PM AEST
Ladder position: Gold Coast 17th North Melbourne 12th

What the stats say
Both teams are averaging around 158 handballs a game while Roos are averaging 20 more kicks.
Gold Coast are only managing 69 marks per game compared to Roos 81.
Both teams have a low tackle count with Gold Coast averaging 63 and Kangaroos 66.
The Hitouts are in Roos favor also with Roos averaging 39 compared to 31 for Gold Coast.
Gold Coast are letting themselves down in the goal scoring department averaging 33 disposals per goal compared to Kangaroos 27.

Key changes
Two big game changers this week for Kangaroos are Firrito and Bastinac coming back into the team.
No big changes for Gold Coast.

Who will win?

This will be a hard fought battle but Kangaroos will be too strong for 4 QTR’s and get up.
North Melbourne by 35 points

Betting options
Kangaroos +2.5 at $1.27

Geelong Cats ($1.46) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($2.73) – Saturday 7:10PM AEST
Ladder position: Geelong 1st Hawthorn 3rd
Geelong have won the last 6 meetings

What the stats say
Hawks go by foot 10 times more per game than Cats while Cats go by hand 10 times more per game.
Both teams take alot of marks with Cats averaging 105 and Hawks 110 (boosted by that 170 mark game).
Both teams don’t rely heavily on a large number of tackles only laying 63 and 65 on average.
Both teams average around 37 hitouts per match and 27 disposals per goal.

Key changes
Chapman and Milburn would instantly slot back into the top 16 of any AFL team and are very handy ins for Geelong. Hawks have named Franklin and Savage in the team.
There is a 70% chance Franklin will be pulled out of the squad before the game.. this is probably just mind games being played by the Hawks as his injury generally requires at least two weeks off.

Who will win

Cats will be too strong for the Hawks. They were the better team eariler in the year and will continue that form.
Cats by 30

Betting option
Geelong +12.5 at $1.25

 

Carlton Blues ($1.06) vs Brisbane Lions ($9.35) – Sunday 1:10PM AEST
Ladder position: Carlton 4th Brisbane 15th
Carlton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

What the stats say
Carlton are averaging 35 more Kicks than Brisbane and 8 more Handballs per game than Brisbane.
Carlton are averaging 20 more marks per game and 6 more tackles.
Lions are leading hitouts by 1 over Carlton.
Carlton are averaging 27 disposals per goal compared to Brisbanes 30 per goal

Key changes
Waite and O’hAilpin are both out.. two big forwards. Luckily, in come Kreuzer and Warnock with Henderson, Bower and Houlihan also in.
Brisbane lose their best player down back in Merrett. Back into the team comes Maguire, Rockliff and Drummond with Golby and Harwood also named.
Both teams have big outs but also big ins.

Who will win
Every stat and even the odds of this game points to a huge win to the Blues. Lions gain quite a bit of experience and hunger in the midfield but they will still not be strong enough to cope with the Carlton team who are playing very well.
Carlton by 47

Betting options
Carlton -22.5 at $1.24

 

Sydney Swans ($1.26) vs Richmond Tigers ($3.90) – Sunday 2:10PM AEST
Ladder position: Sydney 5th Richmond 10th
Sydney have won 8 of the last 9

 

What the stats say
Both teams average around 203 Kicks per game while Tigers average 24 more handballs a game.
Tigers average 6 more marks while Tigers average 3 more hitouts.
Swans are one of the hardest hitting teams in the league averaging 82 tackles a game compared to tigers 66.
Tigers are very efficient with the ball averaging 24 disposals per goal compared to swans 28.

Key changes
Kieren Jack is a HUGE in for the Swans with Moore and Johnston also being handy.
Edwards, Hislop, AStbury and Webberley are also handy ins for Richmond.

Who will win
This will be a closer game than many think. Sydney were brilliant around the ball last week and with the inclusion of Kieran Jack, will only improve. Richmond have been good as of late but their loss to Port and the Curse of the Bye will be too much for them.
Swans by 17

Betting option
Richmond +48.5 at $1.24

 

Fremantle Dockers ($1.76) vs Essendon Bombers ($2.07) – Sunday 2:40PM AWST (4:40AEST)
Ladder position: Fremantle 8th Essendon 7th
Fremantle have won 3 of the last 5

 

What the stats say
Bombers are averaging 25 more kicks per game. Freo are averaging 12 more Handballs.
Essendon are averaging 5 more Marks per game. Freo are averaging 5 more tackles per game.
As expected, Freo are averaging 5 more Hitouts per game, but have no Sandi for this game.
Essendon are very efficient with the goal averaging 23 Disposals per Goal compared to Dockers 27.

Key changes

Jobe Watson, Michael Hurley and Andrew Welsh are very key ins for the Bombers. Our tip relys on Hurley and Watson lining up.
Barlow is a major in for Freo but seeing vision of him on the weekend, he will only play half a game.

Who will win
A very close game. Freo were ok last week against Hawks but rolled over and died on the field. Dons were missing the brilliance of Hurley and Watson and will be 100X better than last week for it. Watson will walk away with 3 brownlow points and Dons will win the game.
Essendon by 12

 

Betting option
Essendon +33.5 at $1.24

 

 

 

 

Melbourne Demons ($5.50) vs Collingwood Mapgies ($1.15) – Monday 2:10pm AEST
Ladder position: Melbourne 9th Collingwood 2nd
The last two games were a Draw and Collingwood by 1 point

What the stats say
Pies go by foot 30 times more per game than Demons.. while Demons go by hand 10 times more per game.
Both teams average around 95 marks per game and Pies average 5 more tackles.
Melbourne are leading the hitouts with 42 compared to Pies 32 per game.
Pies have one of the best Disposals Per Goal counts with 22 per goal compared to Demons 28.

Key changes
Petterd, Bate and Bartram back in for Melbourne.
Big outs for Pies are Beams, Swan and Thomas.
Handy ins with Buckley, Blair, Dick, Rounds, Young and Fasolo being named.

Who will win
This game will be closer than expect. You cannot go agains tthe Pies here but it would be great to see Melbourne get up. They will be in this game all the way.
Collingwood by 20

Betting option
Melbourne +58.5 at $1.24

Betting options in order of preference

Bulldogs +43.5 at $1.21
Geelong +12.5 at $1.25 (If Franklin plays this goes down 1 position)
Essendon +33.5 at $1.24 (If Watson or Hurley pulls out, goes down 1 position)
West Coast +21.5 at $1.23
Carlton -22.5 at $1.24
Richmond +48.5 at $1.24
Kangaroos +2.5 at $1.27
Melbourne +58.5 at $1.24

Please note
All Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and   supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet.  Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay   significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only   give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not   recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet   listed above. Bet at your own risk.

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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