AFL Round 15 2012 Season – Game Preview

Welcome to The Profits round 15 analysis with Drew and Euan. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!

You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php

Collingwood Magpies ($1.22) vs Carlton Blues ($4.25) – MCG, Friday July 6, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 18.14 (122) d Collingwood 9.8 (62), round three, 2012, at the MCG
Game preview: When these two teams met earlier there was a lot of hype about how good the Blues were this year. Since then Collingwood have lost just one game and Carlton have won just once in the past 6 weeks which is not surprising when you see an injury list with 11 names including their No.1 forward and midfielder! Games between these two teams are filled with emotion and the Blues will lift for sure but whether they can overcome a Magpie team that has strung together 10 consecutive wins is a good question. Expect a reversal of the result from the first game.
Magpies by 35 points
Line: Magpies -29.5

North Melbourne Kangaroos ($2.70) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.46) – Blundstone Arena, Saturday July 7, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: West Coast 17.18 (115) d North Melbourne 15.5 (95), round six, 2012 at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: North seems to be on a roll at the moment having dispatched the Crows and the Saints over the past couple of weeks and they could continue their winning streak against the Eagles if they play well. West Coast lost to Collingwood and Brisbane but was back to devastating form last week against the Gold Coast. North were flattered the last time these two met with the Eagles having 35 shots on goal to the Roos 20. The Eagles might have just a bit more talent in more positions than North but will have to play their best to win. Close one.
Eagles by 5 points
Line: Kangaroos +15.5

Melbourne Demons ($5.30) vs Richmond Tigers ($1.16) – MCG, Saturday July 7, 2.15pm
Recent clashes: Richmond 20.13 (133) d Melbourne 11.8 (74), round three, 2011, at the MCG
Game preview: The Demons have been consistent all season – consistently bad. The Tigers have a huge opportunity to win an important game in the context of their chance to finish in the top 8. They let one slip against the Crows last week after leading early but you can be sure they won’t allow that to happen again. The only concern for the Tigers is seven changes with Jackson and Martin suspended, Connors delisted and Grimes & King out with injuries. Tigers should still be able to dominate a Melbourne team who won the inside 50s last week vs Brisbane yet lost by 60 points. Melbourne remains a council labourer’s dream – work in progress.
Tigers by 56 points
Line: Tigers -33.5

Sydney Swans ($1.17) vs Brisbane Lions ($5.00) – SCG, Saturday, July 7, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: Sydney Swans 18.11 (119) d Brisbane Lions 9.13 (67), round 24, 2011 at the SCG
Game preview: Tip against the Swans at your own peril this year but Voss has brought his young Brisbane team on rather nicely as the season has progressed and they are playing well enough to present Sydney with a danger game. The Swans are looking at a top 4 finish but need to win against lower teams like this. Brisbane will want to keep alive their slim chance of making the finals so it will be a tough, close encounter.
Swans by 38
Line: Swans – 33.5

Essendon Bombers ($1.38) vs St Kilda ($3.05) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday July 7, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Essendon 21.10 (136) defeated St Kilda 12.12 (84), round 3, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: Injuries to Saints players just keep happening and they can ill afford to be down in manpower against a very good looking Essendon team who also wants a top 4 finish. The game is no gimme for the Bombers and they will have to maintain pressure on the Saints to post a win. St Kilda is still in the mix to play finals. It’s hard to tip against Essendon when they are playing teams below them.
Bombers by 26
Line: Bombers -19.5

Port Adelaide Power ($4.00) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.25) – AAMI Stadium, Saturday July 7, 7.10pm
Recent clashes: Adelaide 16.14 (110) defeated Port Adelaide 14.7 (91), round 5, 2012 at AAMI Stadium
Game preview: The SA derby – it’s always a tough encounter. The Power is playing well enough to trouble other teams but not quite well enough to win many games. They certainly have their work cut out for them here playing the Crows who also seek a top 4 finish. The loss of Walker through suspension will hurt Adelaide when they play the better teams but for this game he will be hardly missed. Why hasn’t Minson apologized to Pearce by the way?
Crows by 34
Line: Crows -26.5

Hawthorn Hawks ($1.01) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants ($17.00) – MCG, Sunday July 8, 1.10pm
Recent clashes: First Meeting
Game preview: The one saving grace for the Giants in this match is that Buddy will be out due to injury. However, that doesn’t mean a Giants’ win, it means a smaller winning margin for Hawthorn. Not a lot you can say about which team to tip and why because the game is a definite win for the Hawks. The margin? Extreme!
Hawks by 66
Line: Giants +92.5

Gold Coast Suns ($17.00) vs Geelong Cats ($1.01) – Metricon Stadium, Sunday July 8, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: Geelong 29.14 (188) d Gold Coast 6.2 (38), round 20, 2011 at Skilled Stadium.
Game preview: Another win for the Cats and another loss for the Suns who have recently been Blighted! You have to wonder about the confidence the management has in their coach when they appoint Malcolm Blight to oversee the coaching strategies!? But Bluey McKenna has been re-appointed so you can assume his position is safe. Geelong coach Scott had a dream season last year but faces the possibility that the Cats may not make the finals this year. Is the era over?
Cats by 71
Line: Cats -59.5

Fremantle Dockers ($1.22) vs Western Bulldogs ($4.25) – Patersons Stadium, Sunday July 8, 2.40pm
Recent clashes: Western Bulldogs 15.17 (107) d Fremantle 8.13 (61), round 24, 2011 at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: The Dockers retain a slim chance of making the finals as they make up a logjam of teams battling for 7th and 8th on the ladder. Winning this game against a Bulldogs side that is rebuilding, or at least needs to be rebuilding, will help their cause. Freo was not shamed last week but the Bulldogs were and it’s hard to see them winning in Perth, even against the Dockers.
Dockers by 41
Line: Dockers -30.5 

Betting
Kangaroos +24.5 at 1.57
Magpies -16.5 at 1.50
Crows -14.5 at 1.50
Tigers 40+ at 2.20
Giants +92.5 at 1.92 

Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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