Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 16 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season, but there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen week in week out in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. The trend has and continues to be that underdogs are covering lines more often than normal and that’s something to keep an eye on. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.
(4 units): Adelaide -24.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): Richmond 1-39 @ $2.10
(2 units): Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10
(1 unit): Geelong 1-39 @ $2.40
Adelaide ($1.32) VS Western Bulldogs ($3.40)
Friday 7 July – 7.50pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -24.5, Western Bulldogs +24.5
The Crows come in off a small win over the Blues after a very fast start and they just couldn’t go on with it. They broke even on Inside 50s and Marks inside 50, lost hitouts but won the clearances.
The Crows can put in an effort much better than last week and only straight kicking from the Blues saw the Crows fail to cover last week.
Lost 3 of the past 4 matches and the only win was 1 point over the Roos. The Dogs are in a form slump and have a lot of questions to answer today against the Crows.
The Doggies up until the final quarter were destroyed all over the park by the Eagles and while the KPIs suggest they were okay, they were smashed for marks inside 50 and clearances even when winning the hitouts and tackles.
The Dogs are down and out while the Crows are looking for a game where they can put a team like the Premiership holders away in a commanding fashion.
Adelaide by 45 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Adelaide -24.5 line @ $1.92
Hawthorn ($2.80) VS Greater Western Sydney Giants ($1.44)
Saturday 8 July – 1.45pm AEST – UTAS Stadium
Line: Hawthorn +15.5, GWS -15.5
The Hawks have won two in a row as underdogs and are looking to put another upset on the board with a solid display down in Tasmania where they have won previously this year.
On the KPI level last week, they had the right number of Inside 50s, shots on goal, hitouts, tackles, clearances and marks inside 50.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Giants haven’t been overly impressive in recent weeks with a loss to the Blues and draw to the injury stricken Cats last week with a win over the Lions in between. On the stats, the Cats had the better of the Giants with 6 less frees but 7 more inside 50s, 14 hitouts, 5 more clearances but the same low marks inside 50 count.
The Giants have a few players expected to return this week but their injury list remains one of the largest in the league.
The Hawks continue to surprise and have a bit of spark about them, but at the end of the day, they only beat the Pies last week and the win was overly convincing in the end against a team struggling to get close to a top 8 spot. The Giants stand at the top of the table because they have the best list and a game plan that works at any stadium. As long as they take the Hawks seriously, this should be a close, but hard fought win for the Giants.
Greater Western Sydney by 22 Points
Betting – Confidence 85%
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 @ $2.10
Collingwood ($2.00) VS Essendon ($1.81)
Saturday 8 July – 2.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Collingwood +2.5, Essendon -2.5
Lost three in a row at the MCG and just hasn’t been good enough. I thought they did everything they could last week and the Hawks simply got the better of them on the day. When Cox can kick three goals for you up forward and you still can’t win, something is wrong with your overall game plan or structure.
This Pies need their captain to stand up in this game.
The Bombers got the better of the Pies by 18 points in their last meeting and have been in some very good form since.
Looking at the Bombers last 5 games, it reads as 4 losses and 1 win. That being said, they have had close losses to the Tigers, Giants and Swans in that time while the close loss last week to the Lions was unfortunate.
Expect the Bombers to bounce back.
The Bombers are playing the better brand of football at the moment and i’m happy to forgive the poor effort last week against a bottom of the ladder team. It happens and teams do it. When that happens, they rebound the next week after the whipping they received from the coach. All they can do is put in the effort on the field.
Essendon by 15 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Essendon -2.5 line @ $1.92
Sydney ($1.14) VS Gold Coast ($5.80)
Saturday 8 July – 4.35pm AEST – SCG
Line: Sydney -38.5, Gold Coast +38.5
Won seven of their last eight matches with only a 6 point lose on the record. The Swans have failed to score more than 88 points in the past 5 weeks but have still won 4 of the last 5 matches.
Last week was a bit of a warning with 30 scoring shots to not score more than 85 points due to poor kicking. The Swans will need to be straight infront of goal this week to measure up. Around the grounds, they were A grade material.
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns looked to get the ideal matchup last week against the Roos and they proved they aren’t a bottom 4 team, but still have a lot to prove to be a top 8 team.
They face a tough Swans team away at the SCG and are giving them a huge start. The Suns best is good enough to measure up around the grounds against this Swans outfit, but I can’t see them getting a win on the board on current KPIs being met during the matches.
The Suns need a shoot-out style match and some very straight kicking to be a chance here and while I think they are a big chance at covering the line, I couldn’t touch them to win today.
Sydney Swans by 28 points
Betting – Confidence 65%
Gold Coast +38.5 Line
Brisbane ($4.75) vs Geelong ($1.19)
Saturday 8 July – 7.25pm AEST – Gabba
Line: Brisbane +34.5, Geelong -34.5
Three wins for the year over some of the most vulnerable teams in the Suns, Dockers and Bombers.
The Lions showed signs of a team that may come good in 2-3 years time last week, but I couldn’t consider them a chance against this Cats line-up that could end up on top by the end of the season.
The Cats continue to get the job done with a huge effort against the Giants last week at Spotless Stadium. They travel to the Gabba and while they haven’t been the best team on the road this year, they will remain some very handy additions to the squad and the team really has a feel of a team that is now competing for spots.
If the Cats can bring the same intensity as they have shown in recent weeks outside of the Eagles game, they will be hard to hold out.
I can’t see the Cats coming here and blowing the Lions out of the water and even if they do early, the Cats tend to take their feet off the throat of opponents late. This sets the match right up for a 1-39 win.
Geelong by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.40
St Kilda vs Richmond
Saturday 8 July – 7.25pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda +10.5, Richmond -10.5
St Kilda Saints
After some disappointing efforts with three 40 point losses in a row, the Saints have come out against some of the lesser teams in the league and got wins on the board. They weren’t overly impressive last week against the Dockers but got the job done in the end. To be fair, they had 9 more shots on goal from only 1 more inside 50 with 17 to 6 marks inside 50.
The Saints are good enough to be considered a fringe 8 team with little to no injuries like they have now.
The Tigers just keep doing Tiger things. Only the Crows have given the Tigers a beating this year and every other game has been a close loss or a valuable win.
The Tigers were big outsiders last week going over to Adelaide and got the chocolates against the Power.
Back at Etihad Stadium where they have performed well all year, the Tigers will be hard to beat.
The Tigers have failed to score more than 101 points in the past 10 matches with only one match over 88 points. With this in mind, we can expect another low scoring match against a Saints team that has averaged closer to 80 points the past 10 weeks.
The Saints need to get off to a good start to be a chance in this. I just can’t see them getting the better of the Tigers over the length of four quarters though.
Richmond by 27 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.10
North Melbourne ($1.63) vs Fremantle ($2.30)
Sunday 9 July – 1.10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: North Melbourne -10.5, Fremantle +10.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Roos have lost 4 in a row and have looked very average for most of the year outside of their win over the Crows which was more tactical than anything.
Beaten by the Tigers, Saints, Dogs and Suns in recent weeks, the Roos will need to turn things around to even take care of the Dockers this week. With Waite back into form, that gives them a fighting chance.
The Dockers best this year has been more than good enough to beat the fringe 8 teams but nothing better. They have lost 5 in a row and travel for the first time to Etihad Stadium where they haven’t exactly played well in the past for mine. A 32 disposal 6 goal effort from Michael Walters couldn’t get them over the line last week.
A win here wouldn’t be a total shock to anyone.
A game I’m happy to avoid betting in with a losing streak of 9 matches combined. The Roos have been playing well enough to play well against this Freo team that has some high-class players but has a poor bottom 8.
If the Dockers turn up, they will test the Roos.
North Melbourne by 11 points
Betting – Confidence 50%
North Melbourne -10.5 line
Carlton ($2.40) vs Melbourne ($1.58)
Sunday 9 July – 3.20pm AEST – MCG
Line: Carlton +8.5, Melbourne -8.5
The Blues continue to play well without getting big scores on the board. Their defensive structure is suitable for the style of AFL being played currently and they have a solid team overall, but they are just lacking up forward.
Coming off a respectable 12 point loss to the Crows last week, they meet a battered and bruised Demons team ripe for the picking.
The Demons had won 4 in a row going into last week down a number of key players and were clearly the lay of the weekend. They played accordingly on the weekend. Bugg will be out for 6 weeks and the injury list is significant with the midfield mattered and bruised.
The Demons have the team to get a win over the Blues, but they will need to be at the top of their game.
I have to side with this Carlton team that has been playing strong consistent football led by King Kruiser in the middle. Expect an epic battle against Gawn and for the Blues to win the midfield battle that will lead to the overall win.
Carlton by 12 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Carlton +8.5 @ $1.92
West Coast ($1.64) vs Port Adelaide ($2.30)
Sunday 9 July – 4.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast -8.5, Port Adelaide +8.5
West Coast Eagles
A huge injury list has the Eagles have won just 2 of the last 6. They travelled to Etihad Stadium last week and had the game won a long way out against the Bulldogs thanks to some nice efforts from lesser seasoned players as well as their veterans such as Gaff who has 42 disposals.
The Eagles could have some very positive additions to the team this week and are looking to make their way into the Top 4 as we head to the backend of the season.
Port Adelaide Power
Following the Power this year has been an emotional roller coaster with so many ups and downs. Their demolition of the Magpies two weeks ago was glorious but last week they went in as heavy favourites and couldn’t hold out the Tigers at home. They fly over the Domain Stadium to face a Eagles team that beat them by 10 points early in the year at home.
Frustrating team to judge and they will need to bring their A-game to match up with the Eagles at home.
Impossible to bet against the Eagles today based on the teams I’m expecting to see onboard. Can’t see a huge score from either team on the day.
West Coast by 15 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
West Coast 1-39 @ $2.20