2011 AFL Round 16 Game Preview

AFL 2017

Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.

Teams with the BYE
Adelaide Crows
Fremantle Dockers
Melbourne Demons

 

 

Friday 6:40pm WST (8:40pm EST) – West Coast Eagles ($2.07) vs Geelong Cats ($1.76)
Ladder position: West Coast Eagles 5th Geelong Cats 1st
Recent clashes: Geelong have won the last 6 games by over 20 points in each game.
Recent form West Coast Eagles: Win Vs Adelaide, Win vs Port Adelaide, Win vs Carlton, Bye
Recent form Geelong: Win vs Hawthorn, Win vs St Kilda, Win vs Adelaide, Loss to Essendon

What the stats say
Cats Average 10 more kicks and 10 more handballs and 10 more marks a match than West Coast.
The Cats average 4 less tackles a match than West Coast and 14 less Hitouts.
Both teams average around 25 disposals per goal.

Key game changes
McGinnity and Stevens in for West Coast with Butler and Lynch both out with Injury.
Corey, Varcoe and Hunt are all back in for Cats with Mackie and Brown out due to Injury.

Who will win?
West Coast have been strong when their team has no key players out of the team. Lynch and Butler will be missed this week. Cats welcome back some VERY key players into the mix after that poor performance against the Dons. Expect them to bounce back strong. Apart from the Eagles win over an injury stuck Carlton, their last 5 games have been un-impressive. Further more, they are coming off the BYE, with which less than 30% of teams have won after having the Bye.
This game should be very close. Expect the Cats to be disappointed with their efforts last week and to break the Eagles press with some very fast play.
Cats by 7 points

Saturday 2:10pm AEST – Hawthorn Hawks ($1.09) vs Brisbane Lions ($7.50)
Ladder position: Hawthorn Hawks 4th Brisbane Lions 15th
Recent clashes: Hawthorn have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
Recent form Hawthorn Hawks: Loss to Geelong by 5, Win against Gold Coast by 71, Win against Essendon by 81, Loss to Pies by 41
Recent form Brisbane Lions: Loss to Carlton by 61, Loss to Richmond by 31, Loss to Fremantle by 23, Win against Port by 11

What the stats say
Hawks are a disposal machine. Averaging 40 more kicks and 25 more handballs per match than Brisbane.
They are averaging 32 more marks than Brisbane also. Both teams average 66 tackles per match and Brisbane averages 5 more Hitouts per match than Hawks.
Hawthorn are running at 27 disposals per goal compared to Brisbanes 29

Key game changes
Bateman and Lisle are out injured for Hawks. Milne and Ellis are in.
Brisbane lose Daniel Rich to injury with Bewick and Golby being dropped. Banfield and Hawksley replace them in the lineup.

Who will win?
Hawthorn lead every major statistic going into this game. Many people would see an injured Hawthorn team as a good target to tip and bet against. Hawthorn are coming up against a very poorly manned Brisbane team missing key names like: Clark, Drummond, Merrett and Rich.
Hawthorn by 28 points

Saturday 7:10pm AEST – Gold Coast Suns ($5.30) vs Sydney Swans ($1.16)
Ladder position: Gold Coast Suns 17th Sydney Swans 7th
Recent clashes: None
Recent form Gold Coast Suns: Lost to North by 59, Lost by 71 to Hawks, Lost to Bulldogs by 22, Lost to Fremantle by 50
Recent form Sydney Swans: Beat Richmond by 10, Lost to Carlton by 34, Lost to Pies by 6, Lost to Adelaide by 7

What the stats say
Sydney out kick the Gold Coast by 17 a game while Gold Coast out handball the Swans by 20 a game.
Sydney take 2 more marks and make 20 more tackles a game while getting 10 more hitouts.
Both teams are very poor with Disposals per goal with Sydney taking 29 and Gold Coast 33.

Key game changes
Rischitelli and Bennell are handy ins for Gold Coast with Day out with injury and Jolly, Tape dropped.
Sydney have key ins this week with Jack, Malceski, Mumford, Spangher and Smith all back with 5 players dropped for last weeks bad game.

Who will win?
Sydney have been kicking horribly over the last couple of weeks. The ins for Sydney this week are all quality players and they were all missed in last weeks lose to Adelaide. That being said, They should dominate Gold Coast without putting up a sweat with a large victory on the cards.
Sydney by 65

Saturday 7:10pm AEST – Essendon Bombers ($1.50) vs Richmond Tigers ($2.60)
Ladder position: Essendon Bombers 8th Richmond Tigers 13th
Recent clashes: These two teams have shared the spoils recently with 2 wins each. Richmond got up over the Bombers in round 9 by 16 points.
Recent form Essendon Bombers: Lost to Fremantle by 34, Lost to North Melbourne by 21, Lost to Hawthorn by 65, Beat Geelong by 4.
Recent form Richmond Tigers: Lost to Sydney by 10, Beat Brisbane by 31, Lost to Melbourne by 27, Lost to Carlton by 103.

What the stats say
Bombers average 10 more kicks per match and both teams average 154 handballs per match.
Both teams average 81 Marks per match and Essendon average 3 more tackles.
Essendon average 6 more hitouts than Richmond.
Both teams have a great Disposals per Goal mark at 24 per goal.
Teams score an average of 112 points her game against Richmond. Essendon are the highest scoring team outside the top 4 averaging over 100 points per match.

Key game changes
Essendon’s Welsh was great last week until he got injured. He is replaced in the team by Dyson.
Conca and McGuane slot back in for Richmond with Farmer dropped and Browne injured.

Who will win?
If Essendon come out and player the accountable man on man football that they did last week against Geelong, they will stand a very good shot at winning this game. Richmond need to stand up and show their fans what they can expect in the next couple of years from this young group. Unfortunately for the Tigers fans, they will be seeing a loss and a poor performance for the coming few years from a team who have the potential but don’t have enough depth in their team to go deep into September.
Essendon by 24

Sunday 1:10pm AEST – Collingwood Magpies ($1.08) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($8.00)
Ladder position: Collingwood Magpies 2nd North Melbourne Kangaroos 10th
Recent clashes: Pies have won the last three games by 87 (Round 2), 66 and 52.
Recent form Collingwood Magpies:Beat Melbourne by 88, BYE, Beat Swans by 6, Beat Hawks by 41
Recent form North Melbourne Kangaroos: Beat Gold Coast by 59, Beat Essendon by 21, Beat Port Adelaide by 45, Lost to St Kilda by 9

What the stats say
Collingwood average 30 more kicks per game and Roos average 6 more Handballs.
Pies take 14 more marks and put on 4 more tackles per game.
Roos win 10 more hitouts a match than Pies (Note that Jolly is back in).
Pies average 22 disposals per goal compared to Roos 25.7

Key game changes
Dawes is a big out for the Pies with 3 new players named to potentially play and McCarthy also being named.
Roos have dropped Grima and McKinley while bringing 5 players into the mix.

Who will win?
The Roo’s have been playing a consistant game of football the last 4 weeks but they will be no match for the Magpies who are dominating almost any team they come up against. Expect the Roos to start strong but the Pies will get on top by half time to drill out a big win.
Collingwood by 53

Sunday 2:40pm CST (3:10pm AEST) – Port Adelaide Power ($3.90) vs St Kilda Saints ($1.26)
Ladder position: Port Adelaide 16th St Kilda Saints 12th
Recent clashes: St Kilda have won 3 of the last 4 games
Recent form Port Adelaide Power: BYE, Lost to West Coast by 22, Lost to North Melbourne by 45, Lost to Brisbane by 11
Recent form St Kilda Saints: Beat Bulldogs by 24, Lost to Cats by 28, BYE, Beat Kangaroos by 9

What the stats say
Both teams average 198 kicks per game. Saints average 20 more handballs a game.
Both teams take 85 marks per game and Saitns average 6 more tackles a game.
Saints average 7 more hitouts a game.
Saints average a goal every 31 disposals compared to Ports 28.5 disposals per goal.

Key game changes
Port lose Westhoff, Moore and Phillips to Injurys. To be fair, they all didn’t do alot last week. In comes, Salopek, Cornes, Pettigrew, Davenport, Banner and Hitchcok. All worthy of a game. Saitns have included Geary and McQualter and Siposs are in with no outs yet.

Who will win?
We have stuck out neck out on Port Adelaide the last two weeks in a row and been shot down for it. They just can’t play out a game at the moment. They led Kangaroos for about half the game two weeks ago and let Brisbane kick the last 6 goals last week to beat them by 11 points. That being said, the Saints couldn’t play out 4 QTR’s last week either scoring 0 points in the final QTR. On all the stats, these teams are quite evenly matched. We can’t see it blowing out over the 40 points mark but have to agree with Saints winning this game in a close one. Port can’t seem to win the close ones at all this year, even letting Gold Coast get up.
Saints by 12

Sunday 4:40pm AEST – Western Bulldogs ($3.60) vs Carlton Blues ($1.29)
Ladder position:Western Bulldogs 11th Carlton Blues 3rd
Recent clashes: Carlton have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
Recent form Western Bulldogs: Lost to St Kilda by 24, Beat Adelaide by 30, Beat Gold Coast by 22, Beat Melbourne by 64
Recent form Carlton Blues: Beat Brisbane by 61, Beat Sydney by 34, Lost to West Coast by 36, Beat Richmond by 103

What the stats say
Carlton average 27 more kicks per game while Bulldogs average 10 more handballs.
Carlton average 20 more Marks, 6 more tackles and 8 more hitouts than Bulldogs.
Blues average a goal every 25 disposals compared to Bulldogs 27.

Key game changes
Minson, Hill and Stack are all VERY handy ins for the Bulldogs with Barlow going out injured.
Bower, McLean, Duigan and Joseph are all into selection for Carlton with White out injured.

Who will win?
Having watched the Dogs v Demons game LIVE last week thanks to Swatta, I was not impressed one bit with the Bulldogs team. The Umpiring had much to be desired in that game and if the Demons kicked straight, it would have been a lot closer game. The Demons gave up in the final QTR and let it blow out. Carlton on the other hand were impressive against a Tigers team who is not near the standard of the Dogs. The Dogs should hang in there for a bit of the game but Carlton should kick ahead of the Dogs by the end for a comfortable victory.
Blues by 45

 

Betting Options in Order of Preference
Sydney $1.92 at -35.5
Carlton $1.92 at -23.5
Collingwood $1.27 at -21.5
Essendon $1.26 at +15.5

Please note
Majority of  Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and   supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet.  Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay   significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only   give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not   recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet   listed above. Bet at your own risk.

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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