AFL Round 18 – 2017

AFL 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 18 2017 Preview. We are getting to the business end of the season, but there are still a few surprises on the cards that continue to happen week in week out in what has been one of the hardest years ever to tip. The trend has and continues to be that underdogs are covering lines more often than normal and that’s something to keep an eye on. We can expect to see some quality football played this weekend. Hopefully, our tips help you have a perfect weekend. Good luck and happy tipping.

Best Bets

(4 units): Sydney -26.5 line @ $1.92
(4 units): Hawthorn H2H @ $1.93
(4 units): Port Adelaide -7.5 line @ $1.92

(2 units): Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10

(1 unit): West Coast 1-39 @ $2.30

Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results

Adelaide VS Geelong

Friday 21 July – 7.50pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -12.5, Geelong +12.5

Adelaide
The Crows have returned to form with three wins in a row, but they have played three teams that are either down and out or battling on with injuries. The Crows certainly have been getting the right amount of points on the board in recent weeks but this is the absolute testing material match.

Geelong
The Cats are one of the form teams in the league having won 3 of the last 4 with a draw against the Giants in between. Their very best is more than good enough to push Adelaide like to the brink and I actually think they have improved since the 22 point win at home against the Crows. The only massive negative would obviously be Dangerfield out.

Summary
The last meeting against the Cats saw a 22 point loss in a match where the Crows were never in the match from about 15 minutes into it. The Cats put 19 shots on goal to 10 through the first half against the Crows and that had the match won. Since then, I actually think the Cats are playing a better brand of football and they match up well against this Crows outfit. I’m expecting Dangerfield to line-up and for the Cats to be too strong again from early on.

Prediction
Geelong by 18 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Geelong 1-39 @ $3.20

Essendon VS North Melbourne

Saturday 22 July – 1.45pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Essendon -24.5, North Melbourne +24.5

Essendon
The Bombers continued their reign of domination with a huge win over the Saints in what was a top class effort. THey stay at Etihad Stadium where they have shot over 118 points 3 of the past 4 matches here.

The only query is the stats that point towards teams having 60+ point wins failing the very next game.. which the Bombers have done twice this year having won by 61 and 70 and losing the next week.

North Melbourne
The Roos have lost 6 in a row and were dominated from start to finish by the Power at Adelaide Oval last week. They looked real contenders mid-year having won 4 from 5 before having been fairly beaten in recent weeks. Hard to suggest for a win here against a Rampaging Bombers team.

Summary
Happy to side with the Bombers here. While I don’t think they will blow the Roos away, they should still win this match with comfort.

Prediction
Essendon by 28 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.25

Melbourne VS Port Adelaide

Saturday 22 July – 2.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Melbourne +7.5, Port Adelaide -7.5

Melbourne
The Demons have lost two of their last three with a less than desirable injury list preventing them at the big end. They face another tough task this week and travel back to the MCG after a tough loss on Saturday night at TIO Stadium. Based on all the KPIs, they will have to turn things around to match up wit the Power.

Port Adelaide
The Power have won two in a row in impressive fashion with wins over the Eagles and then the Roos. Their only match this year at the MCG was a fair 31 point win over the Magpies and we can expect them to play well against this Demons team.

Summary
Happy to take on the Demons once again this week with their large injury list against a Power team that is performing strongly at home and away. The Power has the ability to beat anyone on their day.

Prediction
Port Adelaide by 29 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Port Adelaide -7.5 line @ $1.92

Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast

Saturday 22 July – 4.35pm AEST – Cazaly’s Stadium
Line: Western Bulldogs -18.5, Gold Coast +18.5

Western Bulldogs
The Doggies got the win over the Blues last week but weren’t overly impressive against the Blues team that ended the match with 3 injuries. This Dogs team has failed to get more than 90 points on the board in all but 1 match in the past 11 matches which is a concern coming into this match. They will need to continue to restrict teams going forward.

Gold Coast Suns
The Suns found another winnable game last week but didn’t have the skills to finish the Pies off on the day at home. They go up to Cairns and play the Premiers. A tough ask on the past five matches form.

Summary
It’s hard to look past the Doggies on everything we have seen, but I can’t see the Doggies getting the job done by a big margin either.

Prediction
Western Bulldogs by 20 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10

Sydney vs St Kilda

Saturday 22 July – 7.25pm AEST – SCG
Line: Sydney -26.5, St Kilda +26.5

Sydney Swans
The Swans have won 6 in a row and look set for a premiership tilt. They did everything right last week against the Giants without being overly impressive having the whistle go their way at critical stages throughout the match.

They return to the SCG where they have won their last 3 matches and look well suited.

St Kilda Saints
The Saints put in their best performance of the year two back against the Tigers followed by probably their worst performance against the Bombers last week. They have had 8 days between matches but even so they are going to be put to a real test today against this Swans outfit that lives and breathes pressure.

Summary
The best teams have been able to keep the Swans to under 60 points this year with the Dogs, Crows and Bombers all in the past 8 weeks doing so while the Swans won by 50 points in Round 9 over the Saints keeping them to just 68 points. I can see a large Swans win here.

Prediction
Sydney by 45 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Sydney -26.5 line @ $1.92

Fremantle vs Hawthorn

Saturday 22 July – 7.40pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle -0.5, Hawthorn +0.5

Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers were disappointing once again last week in a very winnable game against the Eagles, they just failed to measure up on the day making it 6 losses from the past 7. They remain at home and face the in-form Hawks and will need to find a way to score more than 70 points this week.

Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks have found form in the second half of the year and come into this match having matched it with two of the best teams in the league in the Giants and Cats. The Dockers look a sub-standard team to take on today and the Hawks at their best should have more than enough quality to score over 85 points and win this.

Summary
Very keen on the Hawks getting the job done against this Freo team that fails to score large amounts of points while this Hawks team has the quality in the forward, mid and back to put the right kind of score onboard.

Prediction
Hawthorn by 24 points

Betting – Confidence 90%
Hawthorn H2H @ $1.93

Richmond vs Greater Western Sydney

Sunday 23 July – 1.10pm AEST – MCG
Line: Richmond +8.5, Greater Western Sydney -8.5

Richmond Tigers
The Tigers just had to be ignored for their effort two weeks back against the Saints and got revenge for that effort with a relatively easy win over the Lions. They come into this match against the Giants off a 3point loss early in the season and now come back to their home of the MCG where they have won all but 2 games which they lost by 9 and 2 points. Expect a close fought battle again from this Tigers outfit.

Greater Western Sydney Giants
I liked what I saw live last week from the Giants against the Swans. They didn’t have advantage for a lot of the match but they battled through and just didn’t have the calls go their way at the critical times to be in it at the end. This is the Giants first venture to the MCG this year which is a bit of a concern for a team that hasn’t won the past 3 matches but is clearly still good enough to beat any team on their day. Won’t be pushed over.

Summary
Happy to side with the Giants on recent efforts and form but not overly confident and expect a close finish.

Prediction
Giants by 8 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ $2.50

Collingwood vs West Coast

Sunday 23 July – 3.20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: Collingwood +6.5, West Coast -6.5

Collingwood Magpies
The Pies had lost 4 in a row before getting the better of the Suns late last week. Pendles is now expected out for the year with a hand issue which is a big loss and the midfield team will need to stand up and be counted to match this Eagles team today.

Most importantly, last week the Pies put 103 points on the board and that is what will be needed to beat this Eagles team.

West Coast Eagles
The Eagles haven’t been overly impressive on the road in recent months and this will be the testing material against a Magpies team that looks well matched up to them at Etihad Stadium.

The Eagles looked a lot more rounded last week with Kennedy back in the mix and expect them to put a reasonable score on board… but it’s been 11 rounds since they scored over 100 points.

Summary
I’m expecting with Pendles out of the team that the Pies will just be lacking the leadership and mature heads throughout the match against this quality West Coast midfield. Most importantly, this match being at Etihad, I think the ground suits Eagles just fine in comparison to the MCG.

Prediction
West Coast by 17 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
West Coast 1-39 @ $2.30

Brisbane vs Carlton

Sunday 23 July – 4.40pm AEST – Gabba
Line: Brisbane +10.5, Carlton -10.5

Brisbane Lions
The Lions have won twice in the past six weeks and haven’t looked too bad. They find themselves against a Blues team that are suffering a few injuries and are open for beating.

The real question is, just what Lions team will turn up and are they good enough to get the win over one of the worst teams in the league.

Carlton Blues
The Blues continue to play well but just keep getting beaten having lost their last 4 by 26 points or less. They just continue to keep teams under 90 points but can’t score high scores themselves. The Blues injury list of 13 players is certainly a concern with many tests this week.

Summary
The Lions have the fresher team and are ready to fire back at home. Happy to take them with the Plus.

Prediction
Brisbane by 10 points

Betting – Confidence 70%
Brisbane +10.5 line @ $1.92

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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