The first week of the AFL season throw up a few surprises. Hawthorn had a loss to Adelaide, Essendon throw up their challenge to the AFL flag this year and Bulldogs were very, very disappointing.
We are happy to forgive the Dogs for one poor game and even look the other way for the Hawks without Hodge.
A number of key injuries to a few teams has them looking worse for wear, especially Brisbane, who will be lucky to win 6 games this year from this point onwards.
In the first round we went 4/4 on our bets with Carlton +14.5, Saints +23.5, Magpies head-to-head and Hawthorn + 28.5
We have taken a look at each of the games for this weekend and given our statistical and honest opinions on who will win and why.
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
Saints won 8 of last 8 games against Richmond
Last meeting Saints won 115 to 94.
Saints were disappointing last week. Richmond were even more disappointing against a Carlton who couldn’t kick a goal. Saints will win this by 40.
Collingwood Magpies vs North Melobourne Kangaroos
Pies won 5 of last 7 games against North Melbourne
Pies won last meeting 157 to 91
North coming back from a Sunday afternoon game in 35’c heat. 6 day turn around with flight back – they will be suffering. Went in with no ruck last week and Goldstein will not be 100%. Pies will domiante and win by 50.
Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
Port Adelaide won 7 of last 8 meetings against West Coast
Last meeting Port won by 1
Last 5 games played in Adelaide, Port has won all 5.
West Coast coming off a close at home win in 35’c heat last week. A couple of injuries and 6 day turn around, Port Adelaide should be too good (looked good against Collingwood).
Port by 8.
Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast Suns
Carlton are a top 6 team this year and should make light work of Gold Coast in their first game. It should be close up until 3qtr time.
Carlton by 23
Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers
Geelong won 4 of last 5 games in Freomantle and 7 of last 8 games against Fremantle.
The last game they played (round 3 last year) was the only time Freo has won. Freo go into this game with a few injuries while Geelong will have a near full team.
Geelong by 12
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions
Bulldogs won 6 of last 8 games against Brisbane
Won last meeting 121 to 56
Brisbane lost two important players (brown being one). Bulldogs were woeful but will make up for it with a big win by 45 points.
Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers
Last 6 games is split 3//3.
Last game was won by Sydney 89 to 80.
Will be close, Dons shown better form by dominating against dogs. Sydney still missing some important players and won’t have the run to shut down the speed of Essendon.
Essendon by 23
Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons
Hawthorn have won 6 of last 7 games against Melbourne
The return of Hodge will have a big impact on this game
Hawks won last game round 20 – 99 to 78.
Hawks by 15
Our betting options
Essendon +28.5 – $1.25
St Kilda +1.5 – $1.25
Collingwod Head-to-Head – $1.11
Western Bulldogs Head-to-Head – $1.11
Geelong +31.5 – $1.25