2011 AFL Round 21 Game Preview

Last week
We recorded 6/8 tips with Brisbane and Sydney both losing in games under a goal. Our Punters enjoyed a 4.4unit win on all of our suggested options and our best bets EASILY won.

Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.

Teams with the BYE
North Melbourne Kangaroos

 

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St Kilda Saints ($6.05) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.13) – Friday 7:40pm AEST – 12/08/2011
Ladder position: 6th vs 1st
Recent clashes: The last two clashes between these teams were in the Grand Final. Before that, Pies won the previous game in 2011 by 57 points

Stats
Collingwood averages 15 more disposals per game
St Kilda averages 2 more marks per game
Collingwood averages almost 6 more goals per game
Collingwood averages 9 more scoring shots per game
Collingwood averages 2 more tackles per game
St Kilda averages 3 more hitouts per game
Collingwood averages 21.34 disposals per goal
St Kilda averages 29.94 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Saints: Gamble dropped and Dawson in
Pies: Woods and Buckley dropped with O’Brien and Wellingham back

The Verdict
Collingwood are scoring an average of 123 points per game compared to St Kilda’s 85. Collingwood are conceeding 66 points per game on average. These stats alone tell us that St Kilda have little to no hope to beat the Pies as long as they actually turn up. The above statistics back all of this information up and with O’Brien and Wellingham coming back in.
Collingwood by 37 points

Betting Options
5 units on Collingwood -11.5 at $1.24

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Hawthorn Hawks ($1.01) vs Port Adelaide Power ($16.65) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 13/08/2011
Ladder position: 3rd vs 17th
Recent clashes: Hawks won the last two games by 11 and 32

Stats
Hawthorn averages 60 more disposals per game
Hawthorn averages 22 more marks per game
Hawthorn averages 8 more scoring shots per game
Hawthorn averages 4 more tackles per game
Hawthorn averages 10 more hitouts per game
Hawthorn averages 26.30 disposals per goal
Port Adelaide averages 30.20 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Hawks: Ladson and Osborne out *Sore* and Cheney dropped. Bateman, Bruice and Schoenmakers in
Power: Cornes (retired) with Hartlett and Pittard injured. Ebert, Pettigrew, Davenport, Stewart and O’Shea Dropped. Carlile, Chaplin, Surjan, Thomas, Rodan, Schulz, Butcher and Jonas in

The Verdict
The stats say it all. Hawthorn go into this game at the lowest of odds for reasons. This is not a matter of who will win, it is the matter of how much the Hawks will win by.
Hawthorn by 60+

Betting Options
2.5 units on Hawthorn -50.5 at $1.25

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Fremantle Dockers ($3.10) vs Carlton Blues ($1.37) – Saturday 1:10pm AWST (3:10pm AEST) – 13/08/2011
Ladder position: 9th vs 4th
Recent clashes: Fremantle have won 3 of the last 4 meetings by 7, 9 and 6. Carlton won by only 15 points

Stats
Carlton averages 27 more disposals per game
Carlton averages 17 more marks per game
Carlton averages 4 more scoring shots per game
Fremantle averages 2 more tackles per game
Carlton averages 2 more hitouts per game
Carlton averages 24.86 disposals per goal
Fremantle averages 28.57 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Dockers: Bradley injured, Robertson dropped and McPhee suspended. Crowley, Sandilands and Faulks back in
Blues: Houlihan and Mclean dropped. In comes Carrazzo and Armfield

The Verdict
With the announcement of Sandilands back into the squad Fremantle have drifted in slightly. Of the team changes, we still believe Carrazzo will have more impact on this game compared to Fremantle losing McPhee and Bradley with Sandilands back in. Fremantle got pantsed last week by St Kilda in the final QTR. They have been giving that effort all year… just falling over in the final QTR. Fremantle have only beaten one top 8 team in the last 8 games with a 11 point win over Sydney. Carlton will be too strong against Fremantle and prevail in the end.
Carlton by 28 points

Betting Options
4 units on Carlton +10.5 at $1.24
1 unit on Carlton -11.5 at $1.68

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Western Bulldogs ($2.06) vs Essendon Dockers ($1.77) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 13/08/2011
Ladder position: 12th vs 8th
Recent clashes: Essendon have won 2 of the last 3 games including a first round belting by 55 points

Stats
Essendon averages 8 more disposals per game
Essendon averages 9 more marks per game
Essendon averages 2 more scoring shots per game
Both teams average 69 tackles per game
Essendon averages 6 more hitouts per game
Essendon averages 24.86 disposals per goal
Bulldogs average 26.28 disposals per game.

Team Changes
Bulldogs: Williams and Sherman out injured and Mulligan, Hooper and Barlow dropped. In comes Higgins, Morris, Howard, Markovic and Djerrkura.
Bombers: Ross dropped and Pears in

The Verdict
The stats say it all. Essendon rate better than the Bulldogs all over the ground. The Bulldogs lose a few handy players while Bombers only out is being replaced. Western Bulldogs are coming off the BYE also and teams coming off the BYE have a poor winning report. Essendon were lucky to win last week but to be fair, it was against another top 8 side. Essendon HAVE to win this game to make the finals while the Doggies can only make it on paper.. realistically they have no shot.
Essendon by 18 points

Betting Options
4 units on Essendon +23.5 at $1.26
1 unit on Essendon -4.5 at $1.92

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Brisbane Lions ($1.37) vs Gold Coast Suns ($3.10) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 13/08/2011
Ladder position: 15th vs 16th
Recent clashes: Gold Coast won the first meeting by 8 points

Stats
Brisbane averages 2 more disposals per game
Brisbane averages 10 more marks per game
Brisbane averages 1 more scoring shot per game
Brisbane averages 6 more tackles per game
Brisbane averages 11 more hitouts per game
Brisbane averages 29.06 disposals per goal
Gold Coast averages 35.82 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Lions: Patfull injured with Dyson and Buchanan dropped. Drummond, Maguire and Golby all back in.
Suns: Brown, Harris, Taylor out injured. Thompson out Ill and Jolly dropped. In comes Ablett, Daye, Dixon, Shaw and Prestia

The Verdict
Drummond and Maguire are very handy in’s for Brisbane and Patfull is also a bad loss. That being said, the Suns lost quite a few handy players last week due to injury. Ablett may not even line up from what we are hearing as well. Brisbane go into this game favourites for good reasons. If you remember back a couple of rounds, Brisbane were leading Geelong at 3QTR time and fell over in the final QTR (which also happened last week). Brisbane are playing better than the Suns at this time of the year and they will be too strong in the end. They are value at this price.
Brisbane by 26 points

Betting Options
4 units on Brisbane +10.5 at $1.24
1 unit on Brisbane -11.5 at $1.68

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Melbourne Demons ($4.30) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.22) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST – 14/08/2011
Ladder position: 11th vs 5th
Recent clashes: West Coast have won the last two games by 54 and 29 points

Stats
West Coast averages 6 more disposals per game
West Coast averages 6 more disposals per game
West Coast averages 3 more scoring shots per game
Both teams average 69 tackles per game
West Coast averages 8 more hitouts per game
West Coast averages 26.01 disposals per goal
Melbourne averages 27.95 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Demons:Strauss and Gysberts out Injured with Bate dropped. In comes Jamar, Sylvia, Morton, Blease, McDonald, Nicholson
Eagles: Glass and Rosa out injured. In comes Kennedy, Mackenzie, Hams, Sheppard and Dalziell

The Verdict
Melbourne have lost the last 11 games in a row at Ethiad. Melbourne have lost their last 3 games by 54, 186 and 76 against Top 5 teams, which Eagles are apart of. Eagles won the last meeting by 54 points. Eagles lose some very handy players including Glass who has been their best in the defense. We cannot see where Melbourne will get their goals to win this game and it is never good for a squad when they try and introduce 6 players back into the team. Eagles will be too strong and Melbourne will be left leaving Ethiad with no finals berth.
West Coast by 47 points

Betting Options
4 units on West Coast -2.5 at $1.24
1 unit on
West Coast -28.5 at $1.92

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Richmond Tigers ($3.55) vs Sydney Swans ($1.30) – Sunday 2:10pm AEST – 14/08/2011
Ladder position: 14th vs 7th
Recent clashes: Sydney won 3 of the last 4 games including a 10 point win this year (Sydney kicked 9 goals 21 points!!! And still won!)

Stats
Richmond averages 18 more disposals per game
Richmond averages 12 more marks per game
Sydney averages 1 more scoring shot per game
Sydney averages 17 more tackles per game
Sydney averages 8 more hitouts per game
Richmond averages 26.70 disposals per goal
Sydney averages 27.87 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Tigers: Conca injured. In comes White, Post, Webberley and Batchelor
Swans: Malceski dropped with Bevan, McVeigh, Meredith and Seaby in

The Verdict
Richmond have been quite poor as of late and have not been able to even beat the Suns. With that in mind, they have no shot at beating Sydney this week who were unlucky to lose to the Bombers on the weekend. We expect Sydney to not kick 9 goals 21 again, instead kicking 15 goals 15 points.
Sydney by 34

Betting Options
4 units on Sydney Head-to-Head at $1.30
1 unit on Sydney -17.5 at $1.74

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Adelaide Crows ($10.25) vs Geelong Cats ($1.05) – Sunday 4:10pm ACST (4:40pm AEST) – 14/08/2011
Ladder position: 13th vs 2nd
Recent clashes: Geelong won the last two games by 43 and 52.

Stats
Geelong averages 41 more disposals per game
Geelong averages 9 more marks per game
Geelong averages 9 more scoring shots per game
Geelong averages 6 more tackles per game
Adelaide averages 6 more hitouts per game
Geelong averages 22.75 disposals per goal
Adelaide averages 31.77 disposals per goal

Team Changes
Crows: No outs. In comes Mckernan, Thompson and Tambling
Cats: Hawkins, Scarlett and Milburn out injured. In comes Byrnes, Enright, Ottens, Motlop, Menzel and Vardy

The Verdict
Some fairly big outs for the Cats. Lucky for them, they have one of the highest depth in lists in the league. Once again, Geelong will win this and it’s only by how much, especially when you consider it is Jimmy Bartel’s 200th game! We don’t think it will be a massive blowout like the last two weeks games but Geelong will win easily.
Geelong by 45

Betting Options
5 units on Geelong -26.5 at $1.27

Best Bets of the Round
In order of preference
Carlton +10.5 at $1.24
West Coast -2.5 at $1.24
Sydney Head-to-Head at $1.30
Geelong -26.5 at $1.27
Essendon +23.5 at $1.26

Please note
Majority of  Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line     and   supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on     Centrebet.  Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet     pay   significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins.  Sportsbet   only   give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal   kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not     recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet     listed above. Bet at your own risk.

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

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