AFL Round 8 – 2017

Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 8 2017 Preview. The results last week weren’t pretty for many tipsters with 3-4 tips the average for the round and we didn’t fare very well betting wise either when all was said and done with just the Fremantle bet getting up for the weekend. We learn a lot from last week and move on with a very confident bet on the cards and several smaller bets we want to be involved with. Good luck and happy tipping.

Best Bets

(5 units): North Melbourne -2.5 Line @ $1.92
(2 units): Western Bulldogs +11.5 Line @ $1.92
(2 units): Geelong -21.5 Line @ $1.92
(1 units): St Kilda 1-39 Margin @ $2.25
(1 units): Melbourne +37.5 Line @ $1.92
(1 unit): Port Adelaide 1-39 Margin @ $2.10

Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results

West Coast ($1.56) VS Western Bulldogs ($2.45)

Friday 12 May – 8.10pm AEST – Domain Stadium
Line: West Coast -11.5, Western Bulldogs +11.5

West Coast Eagles
The Eagles have been a bit of a surprise packet after the shocking loss to the Hawks at the MCG. They seem to play almost every field apart from the MCG very well and that will be where we take them on this year. The win over the Dockers was positive two weeks back and then the win over the Power was also unexpected. Back at home, they will put in a very positive effort once again having scored 91 or more points in all three games there this year.

Now we have to ask, were the Eagles lucky against the Power? What do the KPIs say? The Power had an amazing 68 to just 39 inside 50s against the Eagles and 27 to 22 scoring shots. The Power won the hitouts 48 to 30. Marks 118 to 97 and disposals 421 to 350. They even won the Marks Inside 50, 12 to 7 and clearances 44 to 35. West Coast won the game on the rebound with a massive 48 rebound 50s to just 23 from the Power.

Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have won 3 of their last 4 matches heading into this match with close wins over the Tigers and Roos and a 2 point loss to the Giants. They have been nothing but consistent after their loss to the Dockers over in Perth.

The Bulldogs were the better team against the Tigers on the weekend and the KPIs don’t lie. They had 62 to 47 inside 50s and 25 shots to 20. The Bulldogs won the tackles and disposals on the night as well as the free kicks which certainly counts. They lost the Hitouts but that’s not a huge surprise this year. Most importantly, they had 13 to 11 marks inside 50 and 40 to 32 clearances. A stronger start would have seen an easier win.

Summary
Both teams come into this match riding strong recent performances with wins on the boards.

The Eagles were lucky to get away with the win last week against the Power for mine and they were dominated all over the park apart from inside 50… and even then the Power threw away their chances.

The Dogs come into this with very consistent form lines and there is no doubt that they will measure up against this Eagles team. It will be an interesting contest all over the park.

Predicted Result
Western Bulldogs by 18 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Western Bulldogs +11.5 line @ $1.92

Hawthorn ($1.11) VS Brisbane ($6.75)

Saturday 13 May – 1.45pm AEST – UTAS Stadium
Line: Hawthorn -41.5, Brisbane +41.5

Hawthorn
The Hawks got their season back on track with a strong win over the Eagles three weeks back before a devastating loss to the Saints. Last week they bounced back with an overall strong effort against the Demons. While having 6 less Inside 50s they had 3 more shots on goal. Hawks owned the midfield with 61 to 24 hitouts. The Hawks continue to measure up with Marks inside 50 and clearance counts.

The Hawks would be ripe for the picking against a much harder team this week, but they come up against the worst in the league.

Brisbane
Lost 6 in a row heading into this and should have lost 7 in a row if it wasn’t for a dreadful display from the Suns in Round 1.

Beaten by 54 points last week by the Swans who hadn’t won a game up until that point and came into that match off a 83 point loss to the Power.

They really aren’t good enough to measure up against any sides this year and they continue to allow far too many Inside 50s and shots on goal when the ball gets inside 50 with the Swans having an amazing 35 shots from 54 inside 50s. Sydney had a huge 21 marks inside 50. If the Lions hadn’t shot straight early, the Swans could have been up by 70 at half-time.

Summary
This is a Hawks team that will struggle to get close to the 8 this year, but they come up against the worst team in the league in the Lions and this home ground match looks well suited to the Hawks.

Predicted Result
Hawthorn by 55 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Shaun Burgoyne Over 25 Disposals @ $2.63

St Kilda ($1.26) VS Carlton ($3.90)

Saturday 13 May – 2.10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda -27.5, Carlton +27.5

St Kilda Saints
The Saints come into this match with some impressive form with 4 wins from the past 5 matches including wins over the Magpies and Giants. Their loss to the Cats was a bit of a blip on the radar, but the Saints are match-fit and have only one injury of concern and have players competing for spots in the team.

The performance against the Giants was one of maturity with 57 to 46 inside 50s, 28 to 25 scoring shots, 22 to 10 frees (always helps at home), 87 to 78 tackles, 874 to 74 marks, 10 to 11 marks inside 50 and most importantly 49 to 38 clearances. This is a team on the up and I’m expecting them to go deep into the finals off what I’ve seen so far this season if they can keep a healthy list.

Carlton Blues
The Blues win over the Magpies and Swans came at no great shock, but they were both hard to tip. The Blues beat a Magpies team that had played 3 games in a short duration with minimal list changes throughout the period and it showed in the game on the weekend.

Let’s not take too much away from the Blues. It was a solid performance from the first siren and they got the job done with 5 less inside 50s (3 more scoring shots), 5 more hitouts, 5 more tackles, 25 more marks and 14 more disposals. They lost the Clearances by 6 but had 3 more marks inside 50.

Summary
The Saints team is on the up and i’m expecting a top showing today against a Blues team that has had a bit of luck in who they have played of late and the circumstances they have come up against. By no means do I expect a blowout, but i’m expecting the Saints will not have much trouble taking care of this Blues team in the end.

Predicted Result
St Kilda by 31 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.25

Greater Western Sydney ($1.23) VS Collingwood ($4.20)

Saturday 13 May – 4.35pm AEST – Spotless Stadium
Line: Greater Western Sydney -30.5, Collingwood +30.5

Greater Western Sydney Giants
This Giants team suffered another loss for the year due to an inexperienced team that just couldn’t see out the game against the Saints down a man last week. Whitfield and Reid are expected to return this week while Davis may also come back into the team with one or two others.

The KPIs against the Saints really told the tail. They were hitting the targets early but failed in the second half of the match down a man when the Saints adjusted and went smaller up front. This is something the Pies could exploit on the weekend.

Collingwood Magpies
The Pies haven’t been blown out of the water in any games this year with all but one game finishing under 24.5 points, win or loss with the game against the Cats blowing out to a 29 point win.

The Stats tell the tail. The Pies were good enough to measure up but they were beaten fairly in a rough game. The pies are expected to recover and improve this week and bring their A game against the Giants.. but if Pendles doesn’t line up, it’s a big out.

Summary
I think the Pies forward line matches up very well against this Giants team that can be exploited by a small forward team that gets the ball to the ground and scores on the run. This will take them a long way into the match and I think the Line is simply wrong. I’ve put the Pies on the do not touch list and i’m going to have to stick to that this week.

The Giants 1-39 and Pies +29.5 line both appeal.

Predicted Result
Greater Western Sydney by 5 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Collingwood +30.5 Line @ $1.92

Essendon ($3.20) VS Geelong ($1.35)

Saturday 13 May – 7.25pm AEST – MCG
Line: Essendon +21.5, Geelong -21.5

Essendon Bombers
The Bombers have lost 4 of the last 5 with a win over the Magpies on ANZAC Day the only positive. They have been fairly taken care of the past two weeks by the Demons and Dockers. They only have a 6 day break heading into this match against the Cats and won’t get the desired recovery time after a trip to the West.

Looking over the Stats from last week, the Bombers were fairly beaten in the end, even if they stayed in the match for 3 solid quarters. They lost the inside 50s 41 to 56, scoring shots 24 to 31, Hitouts 18 to 59, clearances 41 to 28 and Marks inside 50 23 to 12. They just give up too much ball deep inside the 50 and they will need to reserve this stat against a Cats team looking for a reversal in form.

Geelong Cats
The Cats come into this off two disappointing team loses against the Magpies and Suns. They were fairly beaten by the Pies two weeks back at the MCG before being absolutely destroyed by the Suns on the weekend. This is a Cats side with a lot of questions to answer today against a bombers team that is coming off a trip west.

The KPIs are damning on the Cats with 81 marks to 107, 378 disposals to 445, 34 hitouts to 53, 24 shots on goal to 34, 48 inside 50s to 71, 10 marks inside 50 to 15 and 36 clearances to 40. The cats will need to significantly improve on the past few weeks performances. The injury list isn’t big which is a worry for the team.

Summary
The Cats havn’t been playing well as of late and are certainly a risk, but the Bombers haven’t been impressing either and they come into this off another short turn around with a trip back from the West. This looks the ideal game for the Cats team to make a statement against a Essendon side that has failed to kick more than 88 points in 4 of it’s last 5 matches.

Predicted Result
Geelong by 42 points

Betting – Confidence 85%
Geelong -21.5 Line @ $1.92

Adelaide ($1.13) VS Melbourne ($6.05)

Saturday 13 May – 7.40pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Line: Adelaide -37.5, Melbourne +37.5

Adelaide
Hadn’t been troubled this season by any team and then got blown out by the Roos down in Tasmania by 59 points. It was a straggering result showing that the Crows are human.

The Roos won the match all over the ground with wins in the Marks Inside 50, Clearances, Inside 50s, Scoring Shots, Hitouts, Tackles and Marks numbers.

Back at home, the Crows will be looking to bounce back against a vulnerable Demons team.

Melbourne
The Demons started the year well with full strength team, but now deeper into the season they are 10 injuries deep including their rucks.

The Demons have lost 4 of their last 5 with only a win over the Bombers in that time. They put up a solid fight against the Hawks on the weekend but fell short.

The Demons effort against the Hawks was fine.. they had their chances with 54 inside 50s to 48 but only had 21 shots on goal to 24. The Hawks dominated the hitouts in the game… but Melbourne won the clearances and had more marks inside 50.

Summary
The Demons are no push-overs and we can expect a solid performance to be put up here against a Crows team coming off a huge loss. The Demons largest loss all year was 29 points and that was a game ravaged by injuries, expect them to make more a game of it than that.

Predicted Result
Adelaide by 23 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
Melbourne +37.5 line @ $1.92

Richmond ($1.40) VS Fremantle ($2.95)

Sunday 14 May – 1.10pm AEST – MCG
Richmond -18.5, Fremantle +18.5

Richmond
Won 5 in a row and then has faced stiff competition in the Crows and Bulldogs and lost two in a row.

The Tigers were ultra competitive against the Bulldogs going down by under a goal on the night. There are matches where you say a team should have beaten the other, but the Bulldogs were certainly the better team on the night with 62 to 47 Inside 50s and 25 to 20 Scoring Shots. The Doggies won the clearances, Marks Inside 50 and Tackles also. This is a Tigers team that shot straighter than they have for most of the year and it kept them in with a fighters chance.

They step one a leg and take on a Freo team that has been putting in some strong yet inconsistent performances and this is the Tigers time to shine.

Fremantle
The Dockers had a shaky start to the year and continued that two weeks back against the Eagles at home when they were blown out in the first quarter and broke even for the rest of the game. They bounced back last week with a 37 point victory over the bombers at home and now travel to fight the Tigers at the MCG. The Dockers beat the Demons here back in Round 4 and won’t be a push-over.

The Dockers performance against the Bombers was commanding with 23 to 12 Marks inside 50, 41 to 28 clearances, 56 to 41 inside 50s and 31 to 24 shots on goal. This is a step up again, but you just get a feeling that the Dockers team is starting to gel correctly. They will need to over-come a recent trend to start slowly in matches.

Summary
This is one of the most interesting matches of the round. The Dockers come into this match with some solid form and are proven this year at the MCG, but will need to start fast unlike in recent weeks to keep up with this Tigers outfit. The Tigers have a few injury concerns so the final teams will be important to their chances.

Predicted Result
Richmond by 5 points

Betting – Confidence 75%
Richmond Quarter Time Line -4.5 @ $1.91

Gold Coast ($3.05) VS Port Adelaide ($1.39)

Sunday 14 May – 3.20pm AEST – Jiangwan Stadium
Gold Coast +19.5, Port Adelaide -19.5

Gold Coast
Won 3 of the last 5 including wins over the Cats and Hawks. No disgrace in their loses to the Crows and Kangaroos.

Last week was a huge step forward for the Gold Coast after dominating the Cats all over the mark. The Suns had a massive 71 to 48 inside 50s on the night with 15 marks inside 50, winning the clearances.

This is a team playing as a team and the game plan is starting to come together. They are now playing attacking football which is making up for their short-comings in the back-line and it’s making all the difference. They will have to step up against this Power side.

Port Adelaide
The Power have looked one of the top teams of the season, but they have failed on three occasions against the hardest to beat teams along the way. They lost to the Crows and Giants in Rounds 3 and 4 and went down last week to the Eagles at home.

The KPIs from the game against the Eagles really have to disappoint any Power fan or anyone that was on them last week.

The Power had an amazing 68 to 39 Inside 50s on the night, won the Hitouts 48 to 30, won clearances 44 to 35 and had 12 to 7 marks inside 50, but they shoot poorly infront of goal and cost themselves the match.

Summary
The negativity from the Suns coach in the lead up to this match has been disappointing to say the least and it will be interesting to see how the Suns react with such negativity around them. The Power are clearly still the team to beat on what is expected to be a lovely day for football in China.

Predicted Result
Port Adelaide by 24 points

Betting – Confidence 80%
Port Adelaide 1-39 margin @ $2.10

North Melbourne ($1.78) VS Sydney ($2.05)

Sunday 14 May – 4.40pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne -2.5, Sydney +2.5

North Melbourne
The Roos came out firing last week against the Crows and put 60 points on the Crows and that was the difference at the end of the match. Waite returned with 6 goals but is out suspended this week. They have won two in a row heading into this and have gone very close in previous matches against the Cats, Dogs and Dockers. This is a team that could really be 5-2 at this stage in the season and they really are being under-estimated by many as a genuine finals contender.

Last week was a mature performance with the whole team contributing to the win.

The KPIs speak highly of the performance with an amazing 79 Inside 50s to 46, 45 hitouts to 38, 90 tackles to 50, 77 marks to 69 and 47 clearances to 34. This is a team that is on the up and not to be dismissed.

Sydney
The Swans bounced back with a win, finally, against a down and out Brisbane team. I wasn’t convinced one bit by the performance on the weekend where Franklin kicked 8 goals against a Lions defence that has been at best a shambles all year.

This is a team that lost 6 games in a row to start the year and a win over clearly the worst team in the league doesn’t change my thoughts on them. They have to travel to Etihad Stadium and back that performance up this week.

Summary
I think the bookies have this one wrong. If we were to take the performances of both these teams and excluded the previous weeks performances, I would be more than happy to suggest the Roos would win this convincingly, and if we include last week’s performances, it only enhances my thoughts.

Predicted Result
Kangaroos by 34 points

Betting – Confidence 95%
North Melbourne -2.5 Line @ $1.92

Author

mm

Rover

Covering all things Australian Rules Football for The Profits. I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.

1 comment

  1. Been enjoying your thoughts and congrats on your bets also. I like a good punt on the AFL and thought you may have been in trouble last week on a few. This week I cringed a little when i saw North as your main go. I backed them for a fair bit last week on the Waite factor and Adelaide due for an away loss to a team outside the 8. Im old enough to see that happen often to an undefeated team…just gotta pick when…not scientific, but odds were big.
    Waite is the KEY to this team and although I highly appreciate your stats etc….2/17 wins without Waite in the team weighs heavily for me.
    All the best though…gutsy for going up early too. Congrats again.

    Alan.

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