MLB Mid-Week 5 Preview & Bets

There are a few nice games this week so time for a quick mid week preview. Let’s hope we can find some value and some winners.

Wednesday 30th

Best Bet
Angels -1.5

Next Best
Rockies to win

Multi
Angels, Red Sox, Rockies all to win at around $5.30 worth a little play.

Cleveland Indians vs Anaheim Angels (12pm AEST)

Indians ($2.13) – Kluber
Angels ($1.75) – Weaver
Over/Unders  – Over 7.5 ($1.83) Under 7.5 ($2.02)

Prediction

Angels. Weaver has bounced back to his usual solid self in his last 2 starts giving up a combined 2 runs on 10 hits in a total of 12 innings. A career 3.26 ERA, his current season ERA is on track to be his worst since 2008. He is too good a pitcher to leave it at that mark. Kluber is good, but not going to set the MLB on fire, he is so inconsistent you just don’t know what your going to get with him on the mound. Put that in with the fact that the Indians are hitting below average i have to side with the Angels with their Ace on the mound. Angels Bats are pretty hot led by Trout (Batting .320) and the back to his best slugging of Pujols. Only fear for the Angels is a weak bullpen, but I will take that on with the value to be had on the minus line.

Suggested Bet –  Angels -1.5

Oakland A’s vs Texas Rangers (12pm AEST)

A’s ($1.94) – Kazmir
Rangers ($1.90) – Perez
Over/Unders  – Over 8.0 ($1.92) Under 8.0 ($1.92)

Prediction

Rangers. Predicting Rangers here. Just. However I would not be taking either team straight out on this game with this pitching matchup. Both pitchers are pitching at the top of their game. Kazmir 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA. Perez 4-0 with an even better 1.42 ERA. Perez has pitched 26 consecutive scoreless innings and shutout the A’s only last week. Both teams have plenty of power at the plate but all the games between the teams this season have been pretty close encounters with no team blowing the other one away. Yes, all good streaks and pitching performances must come to an end but I see this as another tight battle between 2 very in form pitchers. Avoiding a head to head bet on this.

Suggested Bet –  Under 8.0 Runs

Other Suggested Bets

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox (Live ESPN 9am AEST)

Both teams need a win, both teams are struggling. Think Boston will take it and generally when they win they win well. Boston -1.5 at $2.18 is a decent price to play with.

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (11.30am AEST)

2 teams that bleed runs, one of them can actually score runs though. Going to be a slug fest just like Tuesdays game. Line set at 9.5 may be a bit steep so taking Rockies on value $1.92.

Thursday 1st

Best Bet
Giants -1.5

Multi
Giants, Cards, Marlins all to win should be a nice price

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants (12pm AEST)

Padres – Erlin
Giants – Hudson

Prediction

Giants.  Hudson is having a great start to the season in each of his 5 starts having lasted at least 7 innings with an ERA of 2.19 and a 3-1 record. Erlin has had a tough time of it so far  1-3 with a sluggish ERA of 6.35. Granted his team are not known for putting up runs but you won’t win many games with that sort of pitching. His numbers will surely improve however this game may not be one of those that helps him achieve that. San Fran can score runs, at home this is even more prominent. If Hudson stays to form and Giants bats produce a solid outing they should be way too strong here.

Suggested Bet –  Giants -1.5

Atlanta Braves  vs Miami Marlins (9am AEST)

Braves – Harang
Marlins – Eovaldi

Prediction

Marlins.  I’m doing it, im taking on one of the most in form pitches going around at the moment. I think Harangs run may come to an end here.  He has been a great story this season, his ERA of 0.85 is the best by any starter in the NL. However form is temporary in this case as his numbers against these Marlins hitters is just a woeful .387, and away from home the last 3 seasons he has not performed that well. Braves have not got the most potent offense and rely on their pitching to get the job done for them. Eovaldi is a solid pitcher, his last outing giving up only 1 earned run in 6 innings. Solid at home the Marlins can take this and I think the price that we should see set will be great value. I predict a close game but all about value here.

Suggested Bet –  Marlins

Other Suggested Bets

Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals  (3.30am AEST)

Brewers are red hot on the road and the Cards are not taking advantage of their chances to plate runners. Last year their RISP (Runners In Scoring Position) was amazing, this year not so. They will get back to form and they have enough quality pitching to do so. Garza has probably been the Brewers worst pitcher (not saying much really) and he comes up against a solid Shelby Miller. Cards will be favourite to take this so will push for the value on the Cardinals -1.5 play.

Future Markets

During the week it came out that Bryce Harper will be out of the Nationals line up till July. It’s a huge loss for them and drops their projected win total by enough games to give Atlanta the edge. The Braves are currently at $2.20 to win the NL East. This price will come in. A play of Braves and Tigers to win their divisions at around $3 is now a great long term play. I will have a write up of the NL divisions soon and see if we can find any other value.

As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

T-Ball

Hitting balls all over the place

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