As the season keeps on chugging along we have hit a great patch games this week. Some very crucial match ups that could leave teams well and truly behind the pack or well ahead. Boston managed to snap their 10 game losing streak on Tuesday thanks to a 3 run Ortiz moon shot. Their series against Atlanta is vital. They need to climb back into the AL East race. The 4 game split home and away series is just as important for the Braves. A few wins could allow them to sneak further away from the Nats and Marlins as they are playing each other at the same time. While the Nats can’t get it together Braves need to capitalise. Another similar series is the Yankees and Cardinals going at it for only the 3rd time in regular season play in the history of the 2 clubs. Like the Red Sox the Yanks need to make up ground and like the Braves the Cards need to cement their position atop their respective division. In non Interleague play we see the Tigers and A’s go head to head. Oakland spanked Detroit on Tuesday and the Tigers have now cooled off after their hot start. Huge Series again as A’s need to keep winning to keep the Angels off their heels and Tigers need to snap out of this slump. Reds and Dodgers, not a half bad series either. This is why I love baseball. Yes they play a lot of games, but each game and series counts. This week they have served up a real treat.
Giants -1.5 $2.23
Over 6.5 Reds/Dodgers $2.02
White Sox -1.5, into Blue Jays $4.25
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays (9am AEST)
Rays ($1.97) – Cobb
Blue Jays ($1.87) – Buehrle
Over/Under – Under 8.5 ($1.83) Over 8.5 ($2.02)
Blue Jays. We are staying on the Buehrle bandwagon here in a very tough match up. Currently at an AL leading 8-1 and 2nd in AL with an ERA of 2.16, Buehrle is having a career best season. It does help when he has a potent offense behind him, that batting lineup is scary. They can put up runs very quickly. However this matchup won’t be easy. Cobb has not allowed a run in his last 3 starts. That is over 20 scoreless innings. Rays bats just have not been good enough this year though. They have started to improve but they have a way to go till they reach the standards they would expect. Something has to give in this series. Are Blue Jays able to extend the lead on the AL East, can the Rays make up ground before it’s too late. One thing for sure is I think Cobb’s scoreless streak comes to an end. The Under 8.5 market looks enticing, however I think Buehrle gets it done again and we continue our love affair with the Blue Jays. They have been good to us so far this year and Im taking them on the Head to Head in this one.
Blue Jays to win, however Under 8.5 also a great play.
Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves (Live ESPN 9am AEST)
Red Sox ($1.90) – Lester
Braves ($1.94) – Harang
Over/Under – Under 7.0 ($2.02) Over 7.0 ($1.83)
Braves. Harang started the season in amazing fashion but has since regressed, still putting up solid performances though not getting the results. Now 4-4 with an ERA of 3.32. His record against AL teams is not the best, in 56 starts he has an ERA of 4.56. Lester has not been himself this year, 4-6 on the season he has been getting into trouble early in games. If he can get through those early innings he tends to do well. Very tough match up this one. After blowing a 5 run lead on Tuesday, Atlants will be looking for revenge. The price on them is great considering the pitching duel is pretty even and they are at home. On value only I would play the Braves to win. Would not begrudge anyone who took Boston though.
Braves to win.
Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A’s (12pm AEST)
Tigers ($2.00) – Scherzer
A’s ($1.85) – Gray
Over/Under – Under 6.5 ($2.07) Over 6.5 ($1.79)
A’s. Tigers Ace Scherzer is coming off his worst start to the season allowing 12 hits and 7 runs in 7 innings. His record is at 6-1 with an solid ERA of 2.59. Breaking 100 pitches every start so far you know he will go deep into a game. His career record against the A’s is not the best as he has not pitched past the 6th inning in his last 3 starts against them, with a career ERA versus them at 4.20. Tigers bats have been flat in this latest slump. Getting shutout for only the 2nd time this season. They are too good to allow that happen often. Coming up against Gray their job won’t be easy. He leads the AL with an ERA of 1.99, his record sits at 5-1. He has not pitched a bad game all season. If the Oakland batting line up can get a few runs off Scherzer I’m thinking Gray should be able to do enough to get the W. It will be a close game and both the Head to Head and Over/Under markets are a coin toss. Just think A’s nab it though. The Over 6.5 runs is tempting but in the combined amount of games both pitchers have played that Over 6.5 would of landed only 8 out of 20 starts.
A’s to win
Cincinnati Reds vs LA Dodgers (Live ESPN 12pm AEST)
Reds ($2.41) – Simon
Dodgers ($1.60) – Greinke
Over/Under – Under 6.5 ($1.83) Over 6.5 ($2.02)
Dodgers. Greinke has been money for the Dodgers this season going 7-1 with an ERA of 2.01. He set a MLB record last start going 22 straight outings in which he gave up 2 earned runs or less. Impressive stuff. He usually gets decent run support from his offense with Puig and Gonzalez doing the damage. Reds pitcher Simon has just as good a record going 6-2 with an ERA of 2.31. The former relief pitcher does however have an ERA of 3.86 in relief duty against the Dodgers. Small sample size and all but still worth taking into account. Reds offense has been way off however they do have a few big hitters. Their lack of offense is the reason they have more losses then wins. The price on the Dodgers is way too low for me to be taking. As good as Greinke is, $1.60 in a pretty even pitching duel is not for me. The Over 6.5 runs however is a great price at $2.02. Dodgers going over that in 7 of Greinkes 10 starts, and in 12 of their last 14 games (time of writing)
Over 6.5 runs
Other Suggested Bets
Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox (10am AEST)
Chris Sale was impressive on his return from the DL in a win over the Yankees. Arguably one of the best pitchers in the game he has been a strike out machine. Lights out Cleveland here as he continues his impressive season. For the value, taking White Sox -1.5 ($2.27)
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants (12pm AEST)
Can Cubs take 2 games in a row from the NL Leading Giants. Well. No. Hudson is in tremendous form and the Giants can spank any bad pitching. Arrieta is a solid pitcher but Giants win this and im taking the line. Giants -1.5 ($2.23)
Blue Jays from $7.0 into $3.10 to win AL East, likely to get even shorter in next few weeks. This team is for real.
Hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting, hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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