Welcome back to a quick preview of a few MLB games to start the post Easter working week. It’s still be an up and down start to 2017 for us, however we have been a little unlucky in a few games. Considering how it’s been I’ll take the 2 unit loss on the season so far. Long way to go and plenty of bigger more confident plays to come. I’ve also had my eye on some player performance and daily specials provided by Crownbet over the last week and I’m finally happy to pull the trigger on one of them.
Best Bet – o7.5 Pirates/Cards $1.70 (1u)
Next Best – o8.5 Indians/Twins $1.92 (0.5u)
Other Bets – Salazar 7 or Less Strikeout $1.90 (0.5u)
Double – Yankees/Braves $2.75 (0.25u)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals (9.00am AEST Live ESPN 2)
Pirates ($2.05) – Nova (1-1, 2.25 ERA)
Cardinals ($1.80) – Lynn (11-8, 3.32 ERA)
It’s been a sluggish start for both these teams, with the Cardinals going a poor 3-9 and the Pirates 6-6 after a surprising sweep of the Cubs at Wrigley. Lance Lynn on a comeback from injury has not looked his old 2015 self where he posted a 3.04 ERA. Granted its early days yet but his first two starts did not look that good. Pitching only 5 innings in both and giving up a combined 6 earned runs and 3 home runs. The Pirates generally hit Lynn, a 4.25 ERA and .305 BAA over the last few seasons. Speaking of which, the Pirates looked locked in against the Cubbies scoring 18 runs over the 3 game series. They will throw Ivan Nova up on the mound who has given up only 3 runs in his opening two starts. He has had a bit of rejuvenation to his career since joining the Pirates in 2016 posting a solid 3.06 ERA and 1.1 WHIP. While solid I feel like Nova struggles to pitch deep into games and with a shaky pen the Bucs will likely give up a few runs at some stage. Add that in with Lynn’s comeback and iffy past against Pittsburgh, I’m thinking the overs on the 7.5 Run line to be the play. On a ML bet I would take Pittsburgh just as they are in better form. That’s really saying something about how poor the Cards have been though.
Over 7.5 runs $1.70
Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins (10.10am AEST)
Indians ($1.67) – Salazar (0-1, 4.63 ERA)
Twins ($2.25) – Gibson (0-1, 8.00 ERA)
There has been hype around Danny Salazar for years and while he has the stuff he is definitely known to be one of the more inconsistent pitchers around. Giving up 6 earned runs in his two opening starts over 11 innings he hasn’t been that bad. The Indians themselves are in a similar vein starting the season 5-7. The Twins have managed to impress early as they did last season. Kurt Gibson will take the mound for the home team, while an okay pitcher he just is not the same calibre as Salazar. His splits against the Indians over the past few seasons don’t make for good reading either 6.58 ERA and .315 BAA. Target field likes runs and Gibson has never been his best at home. Danny Salazar also isnt his best at Target Field with a 4.21 ERA over his last 5 starts there. Another market that has caught my eye for this game is the player performance markets with Salazar 7 or less strikeouts. He has racked up 19 over his first 2 games which does not make my choice look good. However over his 25 starts in 2016 he recorded over 7 only 10 times. Ideally we want runs early here and I’m liking it too happen.
Over 8.5 runs $1.92
Dannay Salazar 7 or less strikeouts $1.90
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.