Welcome back to a small little preview of couple of selected MLB games. It was nice to get another winning day under the belt after a tiny break. There really is some lovely series to bet into this week so I just have to take advantage of the prices on offer. I have found what looks to be one of my most confident plays of the season here, anything can go wrong but all the stats seem to line up with a nice price attached. Lets get to it.
Best Bet – Rockies -1.5 $2.17 (2u)
Next Best – Red Sox $2.08 (0.5u)
Other Bet – Dbacks $3.70 (0.25u)
Double – Astros/Brewers $2.77 (0.5u)
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds (10.10am AEST)
Rockies ($1.65) – Freeland (8-6, 3.84 ERA)
Reds ($2.28) – Bailey (0-2, 27.00 ERA)
Now don’t get me wrong, Homer bailey is not a good pitcher but neither is he deserving of a 27.00 ERA, he has had some bad starts since his return that’s about it. Although I just dont’t think he can ever return to his old self. In his 2 starts he has thrown a combine 4.2 innings giving up 14 runs. He is getting into trouble early and the Rockies here are the one team you do not want to be off your game against. Coors field being the one place you don’t want to be. Kyle Freeland on the other hand starting for the Rockies has a pretty solid Coors ERA of 3.21 over 7 starts, with a high groundball rate working in his favour. The Reds do have power in Cozart and Votto, however they have cooled off lately and the Rockies can just consistently be in the runs with that lineup featuring Blackmon, Arenado, Reynolds and Desmond. After a little slump a few weeks back they will want to get the amongst the wins again, against the lowly Reds who’s pitching has been then achillies heel of the 2017 season. I’m a little shocked at the price as I rate the Rox around the $1.50 mark here, maybe the Coors field factor changes that, however if Freeland sticks to his solid home stuff they have a great chance of covering a Run Line yet alone just the Money Line. I expect Colorado to score 7-8 runs so I’m taking the RL here. Think the ML price is very generous as well if you want to take the safer option.
Suggested Bet – Rockies -1.5 $2.17
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox (10.00am AEST)
Rangers ($1.78) – Darvish (6-6, 3.11 ERA)
Red Sox ($2.08) – Price (3-2, 4.61 ERA)
Boston had slowly made ground up on their division leading and rival Yankees and now find themselves atop after a 5 game winning streak. They are hitting their strides at the right time. Key to that may be hitting but if you look closely they have had some nice pitching performances over the last week. They will put David Price on the mound here and his last 4 starts have been edging in the right direction. While is road ERA of 5.32 is not something you usually want to have confidence in, his improvements of late can offset that. I like him to keep the Sox train rolling to some degree. Not saying he doesn’t give up runs but he is one of the better Boston arms at the moment. For the Rangers it will be Yu Darvish, who’s last home start was no ideal. I remember cause I bet on him. A 3.81 home era over 9 starts is good, although the fact he has shown better numbers on the road is a little doubt. Think the books have him valued to high here, and with the Sox bats at the moment being far superior to the inconsistent Rangers, I have to take the lovely price on David Price.
Suggested Bet – Red Sox $2.08
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Now, yes I know its Kershaw but how can you justify a play on him at $1.29. Even the best pitchers, which he is, arguably best of all time. Their teams will lose. The Dodgers are on a tear, though they meet a pretty solid team here against the Dbacks. Not saying they win, but at $3.70 I will have the tiniest of plays on them. Hopefully a few early hits and chase Clayton out of the game. You never know.
All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.
Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.