MLB Week 2 Preview

So after a fun opening week of Baseball and what was a great day on the couch on Opening Day we move into week 2 of the 2014 MLB season. We started well on opening day with Best Bet, Next Best and Multi all landing but missed the following days on some close calls and also on some blow outs. That’s Baseball and if you bet on Baseball you are going to have a lot of close calls.

Baseball is a huge numbers game, it’s all statistics and averages. It’s going to take at least a month of play before we get a good idea of where teams are heading, what players are improving and what players are in a radical decline *cough* CC Sabathia *cough*. This does not mean we cannot find value. In fact there is tonnes of value. Did anyone grab the Dodgers at $1.90 on Thursday when they cruised the win. Who had a play on the over 6.5 runs between Angels and Seattle on opening day. Also top work to those who nabbed Astros to beat Yankees in the opener of that series. I know I didn’t.

WHAT DID WE LEARN –  WEEK 1

  • Marlins Pitcher Jose Fernandez is a beast.  If the Marlins offense can be consistent he could push 20 Wins this season.
  • Over’s on Over/Under lines of 6.5 are always value. In AL games (AL team home game in Interleague applies also) this is even better.
  • Don’t bet on the Yankees. Yet!. This whole Derek Jeter side show farewell tour thing needs to die down. I for one will be waiting to see them a bit more before I make any plays on them. They are officially blacklisted from my betting for this coming week. Although They have looked more settled the last few days. Tanaka was impressive after a rough start.
  • Short priced favourites can give you heart problems. Looking at Detroit and Pittsburgh.

Sunday 6th

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins (10am AEST)

Padres ($2.28) – Cashner

Marlins ($1.66) – Fernandez

Over/Unders  – Over 6.0 ($1.82) Under 6.0 ($2.03)

Prediction

Marlins. Great matchup between two of the games best young pitchers. I was really impressed with Cashner he should get plenty of Wins this season. I was probably more impressed with the Marlins offense so far this season. Stanton leading the offense they seem to be putting up runs with ease.

Suggested Bet

Marlins -1.5

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays  (10am AEST)

Rangers  ($2.57) – Martinez

Rays ($1.53) – Price

Over/Unders  – Over 7.5 ($2.11) Under 7.5 ($1.76)

Prediction

Rays. Going to keep myself on the Price bandwagon for this game. He is just so solid. Martinez is unproven at this level, even though solid in a Spring training game. Price has a good record at home and I’m picking it to continue here.

Suggested Bet

Rays

St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates  (10am AEST)

Cardinals  ($2.16) – Kelly

Pirates ($1.73) – Liriano

Over/Unders  – Over 7.0 ($2.05) Under 7.0 ($1.80)

Prediction

Pirates. After a nice win on Saturday AEST, I can see the Bucs taking the 2nd game in this series as well. Liriano is so solid at home I give the Pirates an ever so slight edge in this. His record last season against the Cards was 3-0 with a 0.75 era. Kelly gave the Pirates plenty of problems last season as well. It’s a nice pitching duel that’s for sure so the Unders could be the play here if you are are in to that sort of thing. I don’t like the no result figures on O/U markets. Give me a clear result just add the 0.5 and adjust the price. TAB would be location for any O/U bet then.

Suggested Bet

Pirates.

Other Suggested Bets

Colorado Rockies to beat Arizona Diamondbacks

Love the look of the Rockies batters, and Diamondbacks pitching has started slow.

Best Bet   Miami Marlins -1.5 at $2.55

Next Best Bet Rockies  -1.5 at $ 2.51

Multi  Marlins, Rays and Rockies to win at $4.30

Monday 7th

Markets not yet available.

San Fransico Giants vs LA Dodgers  (Live ESPN 10am AEST)

Giants  – Cain

Dodgers – Greinke

Over/Unders  –

Prediction

Dodgers. Cain has not been his best against the Dodgers the last few seasons and Greinke is consistent to say the least. Just see the Dodgers getting the runs up against Cain to push this their way. Overs could be the play if set at 7.5 or lower.

Suggested Bet

Dodgers. However depends on market on O/U.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox  (3.30am AEST)

Brewers – Gallardo

Red Sox – Lester

Over/Unders  –

Prediction

Red Sox. Boston need to get the season going and after a losing the first in this series on the day of handing out their World Series rings they are due to put some runs up. Lester to be too strong for these Brewers. Think The Sox will win well.

Suggested Bet

Red Sox -1.5

Baltimore Orioles vs Detriot Tigers  (3.30am AEST)

Orioles – Tillman

Tigers – Verlander

Over/Unders  –

Prediction

Tigers. Much like with the Rays David Price, I have to keep following Verlander at the moment. You know you are getting a decent start defensively with him on the mound and your giving your team a great chance to grab an early lead. It’s the closers for Detroit that give me a little concern however they have the offense to finish off teams late in games as we have already seen this season. Tillman was great on the opening day. His record away from home is not the best. His ERA against the Tigers over the last 3 seasons reads 6.52.

Suggested Bet

Tigers

Other Suggested Bets

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals

Under 7.5 runs if this is what the market plays at.

Best Bet    Boston -1.5

Multi Dodgers, Tigers, Red Sox all to win.

Tuesday 8th

Markets not yet available.

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox  (Live ESPN 10am AEST)

Rangers ($2.47)  – Scheppers

Red Sox ($1.57) – Lackey

Over/Unders  – 9.0

Prediction

Red Sox. Scheppers being turned into a starter did not start well the other day. I expect it to get worse. I see plenty of runs in this one and im keen to see the O/U line set. Should be a great game to watch. Lackey will probably give up a few runs as he usually does, a 4.61 ERA at home last 3 seasons. Boston hitters to win this one.

Suggested Bet

Over on a 9.0 O/U line.

Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals  (6am AEST)

Reds ($2.21) – Cingrani

Cardinals ($1.70) – Wacha

Over/Unders  – 6.5

Prediction

Cardinals. Wacha is a very impressive young pitcher. Cingrani fills that mould as well. Could be another low scoring game between these 2 teams which seems to be the norm.  Cardinals to win just on another good Wacha performance.

Suggested Bet

Cardinals should be a good price on the H2H.

Other Suggested Bets

Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies

Expect the over/under line to be set at 8.5. Will play over’s on this. If set at 9.5 maybe a less of a play.

Plenty of Baseball to bet on as usual. These are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

T-Ball

Hitting balls all over the place

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