Week 2 over and on the season rolls into Week 3. Some amazing games during the week, Marlins/Nationals on Thursday was crazy. Not only because our best bet got up, we were down 0-5 after 2 innings and ending up winning 10-7 on the back of a Werth Grand Slam to cover our -1.5 line. Insane game and I suggest any baseball fan checks out that highlight. This game just put in to perspective that when betting on Baseball, the game is not over till that last out. Anything can happen, things can change so easily and rapidly don’t throw that ticket away.
WHAT DID WE LEARN – WEEK 2
- There are some amazing young pitchers coming up the ranks at the moment. Some great value to be found around that. As with the “over the hill” Veterans that people have forgotten about. I am going to be very keen on taking some good value on young pitchers Cashner (SD) Cole (PIT) Wacha (STL) Ventura (KC) and my favourite Fernandez (MIA). Along with Veterans Colon (NYM) and Hudson (SF). Colon was superb against Atlanta and was at $2.10 on a head to head. $2.10 for an All Star pitcher. Is always good value no matter where the game is at or who it’s against.
- Not just this week, but something I will point out to those new to baseball. Environment affects games. Some pitchers are better during the day, some are better at night (generally a pitcher with a nasty fastball). Ever wonder why Colorado games at home always have a higher Over/Under line set. Well, the thin air makes that ball travel further which should mean more homeruns. Always keep that in mind when looking for value.
- Back to back games from teams in the same day can mean players rested. Take that into account when betting on a Game 2 when available. You may find that short price team no longer should be so low.
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves (9am AEST)
Nationals ($2.10) – Jordan
Braves ($1.77) – Wood
Over/Unders – Over 7.0 ($1.83) Under 7.0 ($2.02)
Nationals. Two young starting pitchers makes for an interesting duel. If either offense can get an early start and dent the pitcher’s confidence it could be key to winning this game. I have been very impressed with the Nationals bats so far this season. 2 Grand Slams in back to back games was nice. Braves on the other hand, at time of writing this have been very sluggish swinging the wood. Currently last in Runs scored, very close to last in all other offensive team statistics. It’s the pitching winning them games. I feel Nationals can keep up the runs in this series against their divison rivals and arguably closest challengers to the NL East Pennant. Nationals on head to head should be good enough value.
LA Dodgers vs Arziona Diamondbacks (10am AEST)
Dogders ($1.78) – Greinke
Marlins ($2.08) – Miley
Over/Unders – Over 8.0 ($1.86) Under 8.0 ($1.99)
Dodgers. Here we are again. These 2 teams. D-Backs have had no problem getting runs but I’m finding it hard to trust the leagues 2nd worst pitching staff. Dodgers on the other hand are high up the league charts in Batting and Pitching. Greinke has been good to us so far this season. Yes it’s an away game and the D-Backs are generally always solid at home but think the value has to be with the Dodgers away. I expect some runs in this, maybe Over 7.5 could be the play if your Bookmaker has that available.
Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres (10.30am AEST)
Tigers ($1.64) – Verlander
Padres – ($2.32) Kennedy
Over/Unders – Over 6.5 ($2.07) Under 6.5 ($1.79)
Prediction – Detroit. Verlander was no good to us last outing, but don’t blame him. Detroit’s hitting was woeful that day. He did everything possible to get them the Win. Padres bats have struggled and Verlander is one of the last pitchers they would want to come up against. Tigers Offense has been “okay”. Below Par but we know they have runs in them with that lineup. Will be hoping they can finally get those bats swinging on a more consistent basis.
Other Suggested Bets
Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners (11.00am AEST)
Both teams have solid pitching but I feel this one could have some runs in it. Will play overs on a probable 7.5 line.
Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers all to win.
Markets not yet available
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (Live ESPN 10am AEST)
Red Sox – ($1.97) Doubront
Yankees – ($1.87) Nova
Over/Unders – 9.0
Red Sox. Neither of these teams have yet to show any consistency. This game the last of the 4 games series is probably not going to shed any more light on which direction either team is going. However, it’s the Red Sox vs Yankees like on ESPN. I had to have a look. Nova and Doubront really don’t instil much faith that this is going to be won by a pitcher. I would look at the Offense for both teams to get a better idea. On their day Boston can put up some serious runs, and doing it against the Yankees in their own playground would send some message that they are still the front runners for the AL East. Have to play the O/U here but I feel Boston may just pinch this one.
Over 9.0 runs (try find 8.5 around the traps)
Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals (4am AEST)
Cubs – ($2.94) Jackson
Cardinals – ($1.43) Wacha
Over/Unders – 7.0
Cardinals. Wacha has picked up from where he left off last season. As have the cubs. The young pitcher has been on song allowing only 1 Earned Run in 12 Innings pitched so far this season compared Jackson who has 7 from 10. Cubs struggle with runs even though they can get on base enough. If they struggle to get on base in this one, I just can’t seem them putting many runs on the board. For Cubs to have a chance, Jackson is going to have to have a freak outing and only give up a handful of hits. Cards are due to get some runs home though. This could be the one.
New York Mets vs LA Angels (5.30am AEST)
Mets – ($2.29) Colon
Angels – ($1.65) Wilson
Over/Unders – 7.5
Prediction – Mets. Colon in his last 8 starts against the Angels has an ERA of 1.80. He knows these batters for the Angels very well coming over from the A’s. He can dominate this and if Wilson struggles like he has so far this season I have to think the Mets take this. It will be a close game but the value for Colon pitching away from home will be too good to refuse.
Other Suggested Bets
Kansa City Royals to beat Minnesota Twins (4am AEST)
Vargas has been impressive for the Royals, and think they edge this one.
Cardinals -1.5 (Best Bet of the MLB Weekend for me)
Cardinals and Royals to win.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies (Live ESPN 9am AEST)
Braves – ($1.78) Santana
Philles – ($2.11) Hernandez
Over/Unders – 8.0
Braves. Two pitchers new the NL here, both are going to need to cement themselves in their teams rotation. Really tough to get a read on these guys coming up against a bunch of batters they are not familiar with. Santana was brilliant in his first Braves start. 8 innings pitched 3 hits, 0 runs. Hernadez in his 2 starts has been solid but not amazing. Can Braves get the runs to support Santana would be my only query. Taking the Braves pitcher to continue his good start.
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins (Live ESPN 9am AEST)
Nationals – ($) Zimmermann
Marlins – ($) Hand
Marlins. A rematch of the 10-7 thriller last Thursday. We saw the Marlins pitchers could get to Zimmermann early, they have some potent offense with an arguable NL MVP candidate in Stanton leading the way. Hand, while inexperienced at starting does seem to perform better when at home. Zimmermann has not been on his game at all this season I would expect the Marlins can get to him again and put some runs up early. If this holds true and the Marlins bullpen can hold on then I see some tremendous value in a Marlins win. However the Nationals bats have been hitting well, and often.
Marlins, however. I am going to wait and see what the O/U line is set at as this could be the suggested play.
Oakland A’s vs LA Angels (Live ESPN 12pm AEST)
A’s – ($1.92) Chavez
Angels – ($1.92) Santiago
Over/Unders – 8.0
Angels. Chavez has started the season well, will it continue. I don’t think so. He has never been a consistent and solid pitcher. Making his way from team to team. His record against the Angels and these batters is sub par. Santiago, while young and relatively inexperienced has put up good numbers against these A’s batters. If this continues then I see Angels winning, on the back of a decent Offense that has yet to really spark. There are some big hitters and they are likely to get at Chavez. Will be a good game to watch that’s for sure.
Over on a 8.0 line
Other Suggested Bets
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks (11.30am AEST)
Could be some runs in this one and Arizona offense has been good. If Arroyo keeps Mets batters quite, I’m happy with the -1.5 line on Arizona.
These are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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