Another exciting week of Baseball down, and on to another. We finally saw the Brewers winning streak snapped by the ever consistent Cardinals. Oakland A’s keep finding ways to win and that small club from New York, The Yankees are getting their stuff sorted out and winning games. Oh and by the way the Diamondbacks still stink. The teams pitching staff have a whopping 6.50 ERA and are by far the worst in the League. Just terrible. However it is still early and plenty of time for them to sort it out. With their No.1 pitcher out for possibly the season I don’t like their chances though.
I’m going to skip the What Did We Learn part this week, as it’s a long weekend and I need to make room for a few other games to preview.
Anaheim Angels vs Detroit Tigers (Live ESPN 9am AEST)
Angels ($2.13) – Weaver
Tigers ($1.75) – Smyly
Over/Unders – Over 8.0 ($2.06) Under 7.0 ($1.80)
Tigers. What a great game to start your Easter Saturday that is already full of sport and racing. Detroit’s offense has only been average so far, having played a fair few games less then most other teams in the MLB we can’t really compare them to the Angels in total runs scored. Angels currently ranked 2nd in the MLB in Runs scored. Tigers 2nd last. It will be an interesting pitching matchup as Weaver has a decent track record against this Tigers lineup and Smyly while young has shown he can handle the big leagues and can handle some of the Angels bats. Think Tigers just sneak it in a tight one.
St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals (9am AEST)
Cardinals ($1.86) – Wacha
Nationals ($1.98) – Gonzalez
Over/Unders – Over 7.0 ($2.05) Under 7.0 ($1.80)
Cardinals. Wow what a thumping the Cards gave the Nats on Friday. St Louis bats are finally hitting a bit more consistently and if it continues they just win this. Wacha has been superb this season. And sure he is bound to give up some runs soon as it’s just the law of averages however his only career start against the Nats he went 8.2 innings and gave up 1 hit. Washington have been abysmal in the field this season allowing error upon error, you just can’t give teams gifts like that. They have been getting a tonne of runs though, but 9 of their games this season have been against the Marlins and the Mets. Gonzalez has a solid record against this Cards batting lineup however i have to give the nod to Wacha at that price. Should be a low scoring game and if you prefer O/U lines, then Unders would be the play.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs LA Dodgers (12pm AEST)
D-backs ($2.68) – Miley
Dodgers ($1.50) – Greinke
Over/Unders – Over 7.0 ($1.97) Under 7.0 ($1.87)
Dodgers. Seems like I’m looking at this matchup every week. Greinke has been dominating this season, Dodgers bats have cooled off but have put a tonne of hurt on the D-backs already. Only 5 runs in their last 3 games which were against the Giants, prior to that they scored 22 in 3 games against this D-backs team. With Greinke getting the win over Miley winning 8-5. Would expect the Dodgers to plate a few here. Arizona’s offense is solid though but they just can’t keep runners of the bases. I worry about Miley and can’t put any confidence in leaning towards the D-backs to produce a decent performance.
Other Suggested Bets
Houston Astros Vs Oakland A’s (12pm AEST)
A’s to keep their good form up. Take the -1.5 on them.
Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers (10am AEST)
White Sox to get pounded. Take Rangers -1.5
Dodgers -1.5, A’s -1.5, Rangers -1.5 at around the $9.0. Worth a little play.
Markets not yet available
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs (4am AEST)
Reds – Cingrani
Cubs – Jackson
Reds. Cingrani has been decent already early on this season. Jackson has struggled. Reds need to get more runs, plain and simple. While not the worst, if they could just grab an extra few they would have a much better record then they currently do. They are still a solid team and years ago pretty much this line up was one of the favourites for the World Series. We know they have aged but they have proven offense in Votto (hitting .375 career against Jackson) and Bruce. I just think the price will be too good on a Reds win here to pass up against a simply inconsistent and poor Cubs team. Last season they won all but one of their meetings at Wrigley Field. Have to stick with it.
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres (10.30am AEST)
Giants – Hudson
Padres – Stults
Giants. Two teams both have been pitching rather well, 5th & 8th in team ERA in all of the MLB. Hudson the veteran, who I wrote about the other week has been a beast so far this season and his track record against San Diego(1.40 ERA) and this line up is solid. Allowing .218 Batting against. 2nd in NL in WHIP (Walks plus Hits Innings Pitched) at 0.65. Stults has been great this season however he has never had great success against these Giants hitters, allowing .331. San Fran hitters Sandoval and Pence are hitting .524 and .320 in bother over 22 plate appearances against. Have to give the nod to Hudson and the Giants
Other Suggested Bets
Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies (10am AEST)
Taking overs on a 8.5 or 9.5 depending on market.
Reds and Giants to win
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox (Live ESPN 9am AEST)
Orioles ($2.36) – Jimenez
Red Sox ($1.62) – Peavey
Red Sox. Two teams that as per time of writing have really struggled to get some form of consistency going around both the ball and the bat. Still think both have a chance in the wide open AL East so these games mean a lot in the most competitive division in not only the AL but the whole League. Jiminez has been leaking runs here and there and sits at a current ERA of 7.31 over 3 games. Career ERA against Boston is worse. Early season and all but he just struggles against these guys. Peavey on the other hand has been rather good against this Orioles lineup of batters, they are .190 against. If he can cut out the Walks and keep Orioles off the base then I see no problem with Boston getting a few runs off Jimenez and grabbing them the W.
Red Sox -1.5 will be a good price.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates (3.30am AEST)
Brewers ($2.09) – Estrada
Pirates ($1.78) – Cole
Pirates. Going to be tough to call as Cole has stuggled against these Brewers in the past. Estrada was been solid against his opposing line up on the other hand. Has the Brewers early season form cooled off though. Pirates bats have finally got swinging, and they seem to be knocking home runs in at will compared to last season. Brewers pitching (until Fridays thrashing 11-2 at the hands of the Pirates) was at a league best 2.17 ERA. Is this just early season form ? Can they continue holding teams to so little runs. I have my doubts that this will last, and an in form Pirates batting lineup (if only they could learn how to drive in base runners ) could just squeeze this one. Think it will be tight either way and would not ever consider a -1.5 line on this. Cole is a promising young pitcher and I think he guide his Bucs to this one.
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals (4am AEST)
Twins ($2.70) – Hughes
Royals ($1.49) – Ventura
Royals. Ventura, a young pitcher to match Fernandez from Marlins as the best up and coming man on the mound ? He is flat out dominating this season. If his team could get some more runs he would push 15 wins in his first season as a starter which would be fantastic and cement him as a future star. However his team must produce runs if they want to push on this season for that Wild Card spot. Sitting at the rear end of the Leagues offensive stats is not where they need to be. Twins give up runs, Royals don’t. Polar opposite in the way they win games these two teams. Hughes does have a good record against these Royals batters. So im giving the nod to the young up and coming star pitcher in what I’m expecting to be a low scoring game.
Unders on a O/U line of 7.5 which is what I’m expecting it to be set at.
Other Suggested Bets
Houston Astros Vs Oakland A’s (6am AEST)
Chavez has been in good for for the A’s and at home I would expect that to conitnue. Take the -1.5 on them again.
Red Sox and Pirates to win.
What started out as a promising weekend with Oakland and Texas pulling off huge wins we headed into Saturday afternoon just needing the Dodgers to cover a -1.5 line to land our biggest multi play yet. Low and behold a day before after writing off the Diamondbacks, they come back and bite me in the proverbial butt. Seemed like that was a start of some terrible luck for the rest of the weekend, however finishing off with another Best Bet win was not the worst way to end the Easter long weekend. Plenty of nice mid week games to sink our teeth into.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Live ESPN 9am AEST)
Reds ($2.17) – Leake
Pirates ($1.72) – Liriano
Over/Unders – Over 7.0 ($2.02) Under 7.0 ($1.83)
Pirates. After some frustrating games against the Brewers in which Pittsburgh gave up a game tying run in the top of the 9th the Pirates bullpen is going to be under a lot of scrutiny. This was a series they needed to win but instead lost 3 out of the 4 when they basically had 2 of the games won. Last years standout closer in Grilli gave up a home run to Braun both times. Pittsbugh have to bounce back and they come against a Reds team that only last week took 2 out of 3 games off the Pirates. Liriano has not been at his best this season, even though he has been pitching well into games his team mates have given him no run support. He has yet to pitch this season in 4 outings with his team having a single run to back him up. His pitching record against these Reds reads bad, but if you look deeper its once again the same story. He has just never got support from his bats to get him the Win. His average against them is great, he dominates pitching against left handed bats and Cincinnatis best hitters are that of the left handed variety. Reds pitcher Leake its strong and has a solid record against the Pirates. I’m going to play the Unders here, I will take Pirates to just scrape the win but the value is in the Under line.
Under 7.0 or 7.5 line
Texas Rangers vs Oakland A’s (12pm AEST)
Rangers ($1.68) – Darvish
A’s ($2.25) – Straily
Over/Unders – Over 6.5($1.92) Under 6.5 ($1.92)
Rangers. An amazing matchup as an inform Darvish comes up against an in for A’s batting lineup. Too close to call on the result so you would be a brave man to take the Rangers at that short price away from home. Darvish does not have the best record against his division rivals in 7 starts he has an average ERA of 4.30 only winning 1. Straily against Texas in 6 starts an ERA of 4.50. Both teams can produce runs on any given day with some big hitters. Given the fact I think both teams can plate a few runners minimum, I have to take the over 6.5 line even with the Ace Darvish on the mound. His record against the A’s just isn’t up to his usual standard to put confidence in him.
Other Suggested Bets
Houston Astros Vs Seattle Mariners (12pm AEST)
With Hernandez on the mound the clear edge is with the Mariners, if they can plate a few they take this and cover a suggested play of Mariners -1.5 for value.
Rangers/A’s over 6.5 (even though it’s against my Best Bet rules of minimum $2)
Mariners -1.5 into Rangers/A’s over 6.5 at $3.5
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox (Live ESPN 9am AEST)
Yankees ($1.94) – Tanaka
Red Sox ($1.90) – Lester
Yankees. Tanaka has been pretty solid in his first few games and looks like a real star in the making for the Yanks. His first career start against arch rivals the Red Sox and I think he can dominate. The Red Sox bats have struggled, they really miss Ellsbury and they just are not getting enough runs to keep up with the runs that they do give away. These two are so use to playing that is does seem like a weekly event but its arguably the biggest rivalry in US Sports and I for one am looking forward to watching it. Hard to split as both pitchers have huge upside. Could be some value around the Yankees here and that’s going to be my play. Once again interesting to see what the O/U line is set at. Will adjust play once market is available if more value seen.
Some tough games to bet on this week, some great games to watch though. Some huge pitching duels. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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