MLB Week 5 Preview & Bets

After almost one month of the 2014 MLB season, things are starting to take shape in what I would call one of the most enjoyable starts to the season in recent years. Results are still as unpredictable as ever but general patterns are starting to come through. We are seeing some really soild pitching all around the league and to be fair not many bats have yet shown much consistency. Most teams that we expected to be challenging for their division are there about but we have a few surprises who could shake up the norm. Looking at the Brewers. Let the fun continue

This week I will take a look at the updated future markets for the American League after one month and see if there is any value around.

Start of season price in brackets

AL East

Red Sox  $3.75 ($2.90)

Yankees $3.10 ($3.25)

Rays $3.10 ($3.50)

Blue Jays $7.00 ($10.00)

Orioles $10.00  ($11.00)

I know it’s only early and over the course of the season the top teams will eventually rise to the occasion but I just can’t help but feel that pre season predictions of Red Sox winning this division are off the mark. They have not impressed me early on at all. The one team I keep coming back to for value alone is the Orioles. This division is so tight and to be fair I think any of them can win it. When they get Machado back the O’s will only get stronger and if they can stay in this till the mid season point, you never know what may happen. $10 is super value on a pretty even field.

AL Central

Tigers $1.36 ($1.33)

Royals $5.00 ($5.50)

Indians $6.50 ($7.00)

White Sox $18.00 ($15.00)

Twins $51.00 ($34.00)

No value in this Division, as the Tigers are too classy and will win it. Would love if a bookmaker added a handicap to division markets would make for some great betting options. Then I may look at another team, until any of them do, its Tigers all the way

AL West

A’s $2.50 ($2.90)

Rangers $2.88 ($2.90)

Angels $3.60 ($2.90)

Mariners $10.00 ($8.00)

Astros $151.00 ($67.00)

Another division that is getting harder to pick the more games into the season we get. A’s have been really impressive both with the bat and on the mound. Rangers are the same just solid all round. Angels have the bats but can their bullpen get them across the line in enough games. Value sticks with the Rangers, but this A’s team is legit and I gladly hold my hand up and admit I got it wrong on them preseason. The back and forth struggle for this division lead all season is going to be great. If Angels sort out their bullpen issues I could give them a chance. Untill then. 2 horse race. Take your pick.

Sunday 27th

Best Bet
Rockies/Dodgers Over 7.5

Next Best
White Sox to win

Multi
Phillies into the Best Bet, at $3.45

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox  (9am AEST)

Rays ($1.94) – Ramos
White Sox ($1.90) – Danks
Over/Unders  – Over 8.5 ($1.83) Under 8.5 ($2.02)

Prediction

White Sox.  The Tampa leftie made ony his 2nd start since 2012 just recently holding the Yankees to one run in 5 innings however he is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA in 6 appearances  against the White Sox. Danks on the other hand has been consistent and made quality start after quality start pitching at least 6innings in each of his outings this year with an ERA of 2.84. His history against these Tampa bats is decent and if the Sox can get a few runs I believe they win this, and at that price I’m happy to be on board

Suggested Bet – White Sox

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks  (10am AEST)

Phillees ($1.77) – Lee
Diamondbacks  ($2.10) – Arroyo
Over/Unders  – Over 8.5 ($1.92) Under 8.5 ($1.92)

Prediction

Phillies. Arroyo started the season terribly and is only now starting to show his quality. Is it enough here though ? Lee for the Phillies continues to be solid with a 1.20 ERA in his last 4 starts. 30 innings for only 4 earned runs and 1 walk. Classy. Phillies bats are heating up and should get enough runs for Lee to get Win.

Suggested Bet – Phillies

Other Suggested Bets

Colorado Rockies vs LA Dodgers

A O/U line of 7.5 is great value here, should be runs with the two pitchers that are meeting . Very keen on the Over’s at $1.96.

Monday 28th

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals  (4am AEST)

Pirates – Volquez
Cardinals – Wainwright

Prediction

Cardinals. Two inform pitchers against two batting lineups that are hardly in any form. In past years both teams have relied on pitching and great defensive shifts to win them games. I worry about this Pirates team going forward, last year they managed to win those close games this year their bats are ice cold. After a few big games they have gone back to their inconsistent offensive selfs.  Batting .226 is not good enough and they will continue to stay near the bottom of their division unless that improves. The Cards overall team batting is not brilliant either, however they have a few more players at the top level that can and will reach base consistently. I see them winning this in a low scoring affair.

Suggested Bet – Under on the O/U line.

LA Angels vs New York Yankees  (Live ESPN 10am AEST)

Angels – Richards
Yankees – Tanaka

Prediction

Yankees. Tanaka has been super impressive this season and looks to be the real deal as many thought. I was sceptical at first. Richards has been doing his best and apart from one disastrous inning against the A’s a week ago he has been outstanding. He does get run support which helps. Starting pitching has not been the weak spot for the Angels though. They need some relief to finish off teams. The Yanks have started to get their bats in action I think they take this game on the back of Tanaka.

Suggested Bet – Yankees

Other Suggested Bets

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves

2 strong pitchers up against each other, will see this as a low scoring affair. Play the Under’s on the O/U line.

Best Bets throughout the week will be posted on Twitter once markets are available

Current Best Bets Record  15-10  ROI of 31% 

I will talk more about strategies in Baseball Betting in the coming weeks. Some interesting data and trends that I have noticed over previous seasons.

There are few games that I like midweek so will re visit them in the coming days for a write up.

As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

T-Ball

Hitting balls all over the place

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