MLB Week 6 Preview & Bets

What a great week we had, best since the opening week of the season.  Unlucky with a -1.5 line just missing in the top of the 9th but we are finding value and when it comes to betting with Baseball  that is the key. Favourites can be way too short, so if you like a particular team or matchup on any given day, you have to find a way to get value out of them. Otherwise over the long run those $1.50 favourites are not going to grant you great profit. Great for a one off or a fun multi but consistent plays on teams at that price is not a viable strategy.

I follow a fair amount of “cappers” on twitter who regularly play 4 or 5 games each day. Sometimes on those teams that are only paying $1.50. You need 2 of those priced bets to get up to cover only 1 other loss. In Baseball that is crazy, favourites in Baseball lose more then favourites in any other Sports. Last seasons top teams St Louis and Boston both lost 40% of their games in the regular season. Difference between success and failure in Baseball is such a fine line, take this into account when looking at having a bet on the games. Value is key. Not who you think will win.

Before I get into the games I need to sink my teeth into the remaining Division markets. The National League.

Start of season price in brackets

NL East

Braves $1.91 ($2.15)
Nationals $2.00 ($1.85)
Mets $17.00 ($26.00)
Phillies $26.00 ($26.00)
Marlins $67.00 ($34.00)

I mentioned this the other day, about Harper being out till July for the Nats. It drops their projected wins total to enough that the Braves now have an even bigger edge. Atlanta have held out and got a great record while waiting for more pitching reinforcements to come off the injury list. I know some bookmakers still have Atlanta at the $2.20 price. Great value still, multi up with another short Division winner in the Tigers and you have a nice season long bet that I would have about 95% confidence in. If you can find the Braves still at that price that is the suggested play.

NL Central

Cardinals $2.00 ($1.60)
Brewers $2.40 ($13.00)
Reds $8.00 ($4.25)
Pirates $11.00 ($5.00)
Cubs $71.00 ($34.00)

The real surprise story of the season so far goes to the Brewers. They keep on getting wins and are creating a rather big gap between themselves and the following pack. I still think the Cardsinals win this division, however Brewers will push them and are very likely to grab one of the wild cards spots. The Reds and Pirates both pre season we thought could make a push for the wild card or the division, however both are so inconsistent at the plate and just don’t drive enough runs in to win close games. 2 horse race and Cards at $2.00 is good for me.

NL West

Dodgers $1.50 ($1.40)
Giants $3.00 ($4.50)
Rockies $17.00 ($17.00)
Padres $21.00 ($21.00)
Diamondbacks $41.00 ($7.50)

This is the division where I think there is a greater chance for an upset. Giants have impressed as have the Rockies. Now if they can both take a majority of their remaining games left against the Dodgers and can play 50/50 ball against the rest they could push this Dodgers team off the perch. Now LA has yet to hit its offensive form which we have to consider it will improve. Kershaw will be back soon, but at $1.50 I would not touch that. Value lies with San Fran as I feel the Rockies pitching may let them done, they are going to win a tonne of games though with that offense. Just wouldn’t take Dodgers at that price anymore.

Sunday 4th

Best Bet
Yankees -1.5

Next Best
Braves -1.5

Tampa Rays vs New York Yankees (3am AEST)

Rays ( $2.75) – Odorizzi
Yankees ($1.48) – Tanaka
Over/Unders  –  Over 8.5 ($1.94) Under 8.5 ($1.90)

Prediction

Yankees. Tanaka continues to impress, he has racked up double digit strikeouts in 3 of his 5 starts this season and currently has a 3-0 record with a nice ERA of 2.27. Compare that with Odorizzi who is flat out struggling with a 1-3 record and a miserable ERA of 6.85. Tampa Ray bats are hot and cold and they have struggled to show any type of consistency. Tanaka is new to all these guys and as we are seeing, batters are having a hard time picking up on his splitter. Hitters are now 0-28 with 18 strikeouts against, in at-bats ending with his splitter in his past three starts. I would expect the Rays to have just as much of a hard time as the rest of the league so far. I think once teams get a 2nd go at Tanaka we will see those numbers drops. They will know what to expect when that ball leaves his hand. At the moment though, im with the Yankees here. If they can get some runs, which has been an issue at times they will can cover the -1.5 line.

Suggested Bet –  Yankees -1.5

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves (9am AEST)

Giants ($2.51) – Vogelsong
Marlins ($1.56)) – Teheran
Over/Unders  –  Over 7.5 ($2.01) Under 7.5 ($1.84)

Prediction

Braves. Teheran has produced some amazing starts recently, 8 innings pitched, 3 hits, 0 earned runs. 7 innings pitched, 5 hits, 1 earned run. 9 innings pitched, 3 hits, 0 earned runs. That is his last 3 starts. Amazing.  Since April 2013 only 2 other pitchers have bested his ERA. Kershaw and Fernandez. However these Giants bats are hitting .319 against Teheran, small sample size though. Braves offense can be a concern but Vogelsong has been rather erratic.  Have to side with Teheran to give Atlanta a win. Low scoring but I think Braves can get them by a couple of runs.

Suggested Bet –  Braves -1.5

Monday 5th

Best Bet
Oakland A’s to win @ $1.89

Next Best
Marlins -1.5 @ $2.23

Multi
A’s, Cardinals @$3.25

Oakland A’s vs Boston Red Sox (3.30am AEST)

A’s – Gray – $1.89
Red Sox – Lackey – $2.10

Prediction

A’s. Gray is coming off his first career shutout on Tuesday against the Rangers allowing only 3 hits. Finished April with a AL Best 1.79 ERA. Lackey has been Boston’s best pitcher so far this season and is 3-1 at Fenway with an ERA of 2.86. Oaklands offense is in red hot form, and we saw them get at the always solid Yu Darvish last week. I think they get at Lackey enough here to push the A’s across the line. Should be enough value in the market to take the A’s straight out.

Suggested Bet –  A’s

Texas Rangers  vs LA Angels (9am AEST)

Rangers – Darvish – $1.89
Angels –  Skaggs – $2.10

Prediction

Rangers. Darvish will try and bounce back from his shortest ever career outing on Tuesday. He is 6-1 against the Angels with an ERA of 3.77 and 79 K’s, his most against any team. We know the Rangers can get runs but have been struggling a bit of late and they need to snap out of that.  Skaggs has been impressive for a youngster and the Angels have not lost a game in which he starts (5-0). He sits at an ERA of 3.34 with a 2-0 record. Angels can also get the runs in. It’s going to be a tight game but I will just give the edge to the Rangers.

Suggested Bet –  Rangers

St Louis Cardinals  vs Chicago Cubs  (Live ESPN 10am AEST)

Cardinals – Lynn – $1.76
Cubs –  Hammel – $2.24

Prediction

Cardinals. 2 very good pitchers going head to head. Lynn 4-1 with a ERA on 3.60. Hammel also 4-1 with an even better ERA of 2.08. Hammel also leads the whole MLB in WHIP (Walks Hits Inning pitches) with 0.69. However, in only a small sample size, Hammel has not pitched well against any of these batters he could face on the Cards line up. I think this will be a low scoring game and I expect the market on the head to head to be pretty close. Over/Under line could be the play if i see it set accordingly but at theis point I will side with St Louis. They have enough runs in them to just get this one on the shoulders of a soild pitching duel.

Suggested Bet –  Cardinals

Other Suggested Bets

LA Dodgers vs Miami Marlins

With Ryu out for the Dodgers and with Fernandez on the mound for the Marlins the edge has to be with Miami. We could see an inexperienced starter the Dodgers and we will we have to wait and see who gets the call up. Marlins have performed great at home and can drive in runs. Take them -1.5 unless of course Kershaw gets the call-up.

Current Best Bets Record  21-15  ROI of +25.8%
Current Suggested Multi Record  6-8  ROI of +72%
At time of writing

As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

T-Ball

Hitting balls all over the place

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