MLB Wild Card Game

Well the 2017 MLB regular season has come to an end and now the ever so unpredictable MLB Playoffs get underway. With 2 days of Wild Card games ahead of us before the divisional series takes off it will give some much needed rest to plenty of key players who figure to make a big statement over the coming month. Who will join the Indians, Astros and Red Sox in the American League ? the Yanks or Twins. While many think they know the answer in the NL who will be joining the Dodgers, Nats and Cubs ? The Rockies or Diamondbacks ?  I’ll take my best guess but try and find way to make some profit will doing so.

Our regular season record ended up 137-135 for +17.71 Units. That’s our best end of regular season record to date. Usually we perform well in the post season so If we keep to that trend it could be a fantastic 2017 all round.

Postseason Plays
Astros/Cubs to win series $3.29 (1u)

Wednesday 4th

American League Wild Card
New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins (11.00am AEST)
Yankees ($1.39) – Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA)
Twins ($3.10) – Santana (16-8, 3.28 ERA)

What a great story the Twins have been this season. A rebuilding project that has hit the right notes two or so years early. A fantastic young core that should compete for years, they have the chance here to keep the dream alive. I won’t be an easy task as the Yankees, who were in the hunt for their division up until a couple of days ago, have been in red hot form of late and are hard to beat at home.

For the Twins in will be Ervin Santana getting the nod, he has had a fine season particularly on the road where he is 10-3 with a 2.71 ERA and .216 BAA. His start last month in the Bronx wasn’t spectacular but he did his job well enough, throwing 5 strong innings giving up only the 2 runs on 7 hits. With only the 2 starts over recent years in Yankee stadium it’s hard to get an idea how he may play out with 5 runs over 13 innings, with 2 home runs allowed. Minnesota will be hoping to get at least 6 innings out of him here before they can start making bullpen adjustments for the later innings to match up better. As the Yankees pen is solid, they won’t be liking their chances to come from behind.

The Yankees gave the nod to Luis Severino for this big game, and it’s well deserved. He has been amazing all season and the Yankees have only lost 2 games in his last 15 starts. A 8-5 home record with a  3.71 ERA, he has given up 15 Home Runs in 16 starts. In only his 3rd season in the Majors he looks to be the Ace of the Yankees rotation moving forward. No better game than now to stamp himself into that role.

Both teams have been very good of late, the Twins 7-3 and Yankees 6-4 in their last 10 games. New York get the sweep over the Twins last month in a 3 games series in the Bronx so the bookies have the right idea on the favourite here. One shining light for the Twins is their offense has been destroying pitching since the All Star break, where they lead the majors in runs scored since. With a couple of powerful left handers they could put up a big innings hitting out over the right field porch of Yankee Stadium. I’m pretty surprised at the run total on this game being set around the 7.5 mark, so I must take the overs on that. The Twins can put up a crooked number and we all know what Aaron Judge and that Yankees lineup can do on any given day. The Twins are great value on the ML but my play would be on the over 7.5 Total runs. I think Its a great story for either team to keep on going in October and I’d love for the Twins to keep on proving people wrong. However I think New York takes it and goes head to head against the Indians over the coming week.

Suggested Bets
Total Runs o7.5 at $1.89
Yankees -1.5 at $1.87

Official Play –  Total Runs o7.5 at $1.89 (1u)

Thursday 5th

National League Wild Card
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies (11.00am AEST)
Dbacks ($1.57) – Greinke (17-7, 3.20 ERA)
Rockies ($2.46) – Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA)

I predicted a big season form the Rockies, and I wasn’t wrong. Led by a deadly batting lineup headed by Blackmon and Arenado the Rox are no longer just a Coors field powerhouse. They got some good pitching for a change and look how they hung on all season to grab a post season spot. The other thard hitting team from the NL Wild West, is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 2nd best home record in the MLB, lead by MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt this team looks well built for long run in to October.

For the Rox, they give Jon Gray the all important start. Shockingly, he has been better at Coors. A road 4.06 ERA and .281 BAA.  He did go 2-0 at Chase field this season with 3.50 ERA, so their choice to go with him does have merit. Will have a task ahead of him to contain the red hot JD Martinez though and the rest of the lineup in front of what will be a red hot crowd.

For the Dbacks it will be Zack Greinke, who has plenty of post season experience. He went 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA at Chase Field. A .209 BAA in that ballpark is amazing. He went 2-1 against the Rox this season with a 3.41 ERA. One positive for the Dbacks is if Greinke is pitching poorly, they have better options off the bench to not give up much in terms of quality.

Games between these two tend to have runs, the line is set at 8 on the total but If your confident with that I’d suggest the RL play on the Dbacks has better value. I do think the game will go over the line though. Teams can always come from behind at Chase field so keep your eye out for in play betting on the ML. If either team take an early lead you may be able to find great value. For the pre game play though I’d happily take the Dbacks on the run line for something small.

Suggested Bets
Total Runs o8.5 at $1.81
Dbacks -1.5 at $2.16

Official Play –  Dbacks -1.5 at $2.16 (0.5u)

2017 Post Season Predictions

American League
Wild Card – Yankees
ALDS – Astros & Indians
ALCS – Indians

National League
Wild Card – Dbacks
NLDS – Cubs & Dbacks
NLCS – Dbacks

These are all purely for fun and by no means used for betting purposes.

All Prices Quoted via Crown Bet at time of writing.

Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.




Hitting balls all over the place

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