English Premier League Week 16 Game Predictions, Tips and Bets

English Premier League - Football

Plenty of big games this week with most of the interest pointed towards the Manchester derby between City and United. Another intriguing matchup will be Arsenal versus West Brom with both teams experiencing some indifferent form of late. The West Ham and Liverpool matchup should be interesting with no Suarez due to suspension and no Andy Carroll due to injury (though he was never going to face Liverpool anyway under the loan agreement). For Everton and Tottenham there will be no Bale due to a hamstring strain which perhaps evens up this encounter and should be a cracking game. And again, will this be the week for QPR to kick off their Redknapp revolution against Wigan? Let’s have a look!

We’ll preview the Sunderland V Reading midweek game early next week.

Best Value: West Ham to beat Liverpool at $3.2 seems the pick this week.

Arsenal ($1.51) Versus West Brom ($7.6), Draw ($4.6)

  • Arsenal Last 5: DWDDL
    • 5 clean sheets this season ranked 17th
    • 11 points from a possible 21 at home ranks 13th in the competition. Compared to the same time last season they had 16/21 ranked 3rd.
  • West Brom Last 5: WWWLL
    • Multitude of goal scorers: Gera, Morrison, Odemwingie, Long and Lukaku all have 3+ league goals.
    • 6 of their 8 wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the table

The tail of two vastly different campaigns with the hosts totally under performing and the visitors exceeding everyone’s expectations. Both teams are coming off losses at home to Swansea and Stoke. Arsenal lack creativity in midfield to assist their forwards and statistics show they have struggled this season to make their home a fortress. Tough ask for Steve Clark’s men to take the three points as most of their wins have been from lower placed teams however a draw is the likely result between these  two.
Predicted result: 2-2
Confidence: 65%
Betting Option: Both teams to score at $1.78

Aston Villa ($2.5) Versus Stoke ($3.2), Draw ($3.35)

  • Aston Villa Last 5: LLDWD
    • When the opposition scores first, Villa has conceded 13 goals and scored only twice.
    • Undefeated against stoke in the last 4 at Upton Park (1 win, 3 draws)
  • Stoke Last 5: WDWWW
    • 7 clean sheets resulting in 4 wins and 3 draws
    • Behind Manchester United, Stoke are the 2nd best team in the last 6 matches.

For the first time this season Villa will be favourites at home to a Stoke side unbeaten in 5 games, figure that one out! Even though Villa has not lost in 3, they haven’t proven that they are a team on the rise. This will be nothing but a low scoring game as Villa have only scored 12 goals and Stoke two to the better. With the Potters having the second meanest defence in the league it’s hard to see Villa scoring multiple goals, look for a narrow win to Stoke or a boring draw.
Predicted result: Stoke 1-0
Confidence: 70%
Betting Option: Double Chance Stoke at $1.46

Southampton ($1.99) Versus Reading ($4.1), Draw ($3.85)

  • Southampton Last 5: DWWDL
    • When the opposition scores first (8 times) they have conceded 21 goals resulting in 7 losses
    • Lambert has 6 league goals this season
  • Reading Last 5: DWLLL
    • Have not won away this season with 2 draws and 5 losses – ranks 19th
    • Only 1 clean sheet this season.

This is perhaps an early relegation battle match between 18th and 19th despite a long way to go in the season ahead. Southampton are strong favourites with home advantage as Reading have not won away from home this season. This could turn out to be a very entertaining game with so much riding on this result however Southampton should be too strong for the Royals. Reading has been playing consistent football without results to show for and this could be their chance to get themselves on even points with their fellow relegation battlers.
Predicted result: Southampton 3-2
Confidence: 70%
Betting Option: Both teams to score @ $1.61

Sunderland ($4.9) Versus Chelsea ($1.85), Draw ($3.8)

  • Sunderland Last 5: LWLDL
    • Compared to the same time last season, Sunderland are actually ahead with 13 points compared to last season’s 11 points.
    • Only averaging .83 goals at home this season compared to 1.42 at the same time last season. Given the strikers they recruited, this is a poor return.
  • Chelsea Last 5: DLDDL
    • Only 4 points from their last 6 games which leaves them at 16th in the league over the past 6 games
    • Mata has 8 goals in all competitions to lead Torres who has 7 goals in all comps.

Benitez will be looking for his first league win for his new team and a strong performance in the Champions League even though they were eliminated will bring some confidence back into a side that desperately need to win to get their season back on track. Sunderland has been poor all season and even at home this looks like too much to ask – a point would be a great result for the black cats here. An overdue win for Chelsea is a must.
Predicted result: Chelsea 2-1
Confidence: 75%
Betting Option: Chelsea win @ $1.85

Swansea ($1.86) Versus Norwich ($5), Draw ($3.7)

  • Swansea Last 5: DWDWW
    • Swansea is more potent at home this season averaging 1.62 goals per game compared to 1.14 at the same time last year. Thanks Michu (10 goals)
    • Only one loss at home this season.
  • Norwich Last 5: DWDDW
    • Ranked 4th in the comp based on the last 6 games thanks to some incredible form in particular their win over Manchester United.
    • Norwich has performed best against top half sides this season with 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Against bottom half sides they only have 1 win (4 draws, 3 losses)

Both teams are in amazing form at current and this will be a tough match to call. Norwich has turned their fortunes around from a horror opening to the season and to be unbeaten in their last 8 games, taking points from Arsenal, United and Everton. Swansea meanwhile has only lost once at home and Michu is their main player to thank with 10 goals in 15 games. The unexpected result last week when Swansea defeated Arsenal at the Emirates would makes them deserved outright favourites but the Canaries have a nag of winning tight games by the odd goal. Home advantage will be the deciding factor in a tightly fought contest.
Predicted result: Swansea 2-1
Confidence: 85%
Betting Option: Swansea win @ $1.86

Wigan ($2.36) Versus QPR ($3.2), Draw ($3.6)

  • Wigan Last 5: LLWLL
    • Defeated QPR at home last season 2-0
    • Since their impressive win over Tottenham they have lost 4 of their last 5 games – we never know which Wigan side will be on the pitch.
  • QPR Last 5: LLLDD
    • Only two draws but they are unbeaten under Redknapp and are playing much better football.
    • Worst Goals For tally this season with 11 – they really need to start firing

QPR has improved a lot under Redknapp without getting the crucial wins they need to kickstart their season and Premier League survival. Wigan can be a very good side and trouble many of the big boys but they can also be appalling. We see the improvement and confidence improving for QPR again this week with their first win of the season.
Predicted result: QPR 2-1
Confidence: 70%
Betting Option: none

Everton ($2.14) Versus Tottenham ($3.9), Draw ($3.55)

  • Everton Last 5: WLDDD
    •  6 draws in their last 8 games
    • Unbeaten at home this season in 7 games (3 wins, 4 draws)
  • Tottenham Last 5: LLWWW
    • 8 goals in their last 3 games
    • Their away record ranks 3rd in the league this season with 4 wins from 7 games

This will be an interesting encounter with no Bale for Spurs who has proved integral again to the Spurs line-up this season. With no Bale, expect Adebayor to return from suspension to link up with Defoe up front and he’ll be hungry to earn back the support of fans after his horrible red card against Arsenal. Look for Fellaini to again be involved in everything for Everton – he’s the key man here and could be the difference.
Predicted result: Draw 2-2
Confidence: 75%
Betting Option: Both teams to score at $1.69

Manchester City ($2.32) Versus Manchester United ($3.3), Draw ($3.6)

  • Manchester City Last 5: WWDWD
    •  Still undefeated this season though they have had some luck.
    • Their strike power is lacking significantly– Averaging 1.86 goals per game compared to a whopping 3.42 at the same time last year
  • Manchester United Last 5: WLWWW
    •  Averaging 2.25 goals away with 6 wins from 8 away games.
    • Their defence is a little shaky this season having conceded on average 1.4 goals per game this season compared to .92 last season at the same point (21 goals This year, 13 last year)

Without a doubt this is the game of the week and one in which you cannot rely on recent form to predict a result as both sides will want to win this desperately. If City finally get their striker’s firing the way they should be, another rout similar to last season’s 6-1 result is not out of the question especially given United are shaky in defence. Equally this could be draw with goals galore.
Predicted result: Draw 2-2
Confidence: 70%
Betting Option: Both teams to score at $1.59

West Ham ($3.2) Versus Liverpool ($2.48), Draw ($3.4)

  • West Ham Last 5: WDLLW
    • Only one loss at home this season
    • Nolan has been fantastic this season and is the leading scorer for the Hammer’s with 5
  • Liverpool Last 5: DWDLW
    • Relatively poor record away this season with only the 1 win
    • Suarez has 10 goals (Liverpool total 19) this season – massive loss for this game.

West Ham was fantastic against Chelsea last week and without a doubt they were clearly the better side. With no Suarez it’s hard to see where the goals will come from for Liverpool. With West Ham playing so well against Chelsea and having such a good record at home it’s hard to see Liverpool getting the 3 points here.
Predicted result: West Ham 2-0
Confidence: 80%
Betting Option: West Ham is great value at $3.20 here. If you want to be a little safer perhaps $1.40 double chance for West Ham is a good option.

Fulham ($1.95) Versus Newcastle ($4.4), Draw ($3.75)

  • Fulham Last 5: DLLDL
    • Only 1 win from their last 8 games
    • Last time they hosted Newcastle they won 5-2 (But that was thanks to 3 goals from Clint Dempsey now at Tottenham)
  • Newcastle Last 5: LLLLW
    • Demba Ba is on fire with 10 goals despite not getting the results they wanted recently
    • Are yet to win away this season.

It’s been a tough run for both these sides recently but none more so than for Newcastle given their injuries to key players. Fulham are a better side than what their recent results suggest. Newcastle had a morale boosting win against Wigan last week but it’s hard to see them getting the 3 points here with Fulham welcoming key defender Hangeland back.
Predicted result: Fulham 2-1
Confidence: 85%
Betting Option: Fulham to win at $1.95

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Author

mm

Goal

As an Australian growing up AFL was always my no.1 sport especially given I was lucky enough to grow up a few blocks from Carlton’s home ground, Princes Park, where I was lucky enough to attend many games. That’s where my passion for sport began but it was until the early 2000’s when I discovered a real passion for football with the Socceroos 2002 World Cup qualifiers against Uruguay accelerating my football journey. From there I began to follow the Premier League and haven’t looked back since. These days I’m a massive Tottenham fan where I’ve enjoyed many sleepless nights religiously watching them without missing a game despite many roller coaster feelings. There’s just something magical and glamorous when you watch the EPL and knowing the Profits owners Drew and Euan through studies, I’m now lucky enough to be able to share my thoughts on each game each week of the season.

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