Autumn and Spring Futures Bets

There is a perception by a sector of the betting community that betting into All-In markets is a losing battle long term, but I’ve seen from my past results this not to be the case.
Betting All-In is about beating the price, significantly, that the horse will jump on the day… and hopefully win also. By betting early you are getting a significant price advantage if you follow a few key tricks.
I like to start by rating the particular horse in terms of where it would sit in the previous 2-3 years markers based on past performances. This is a very good starting point. Obviously if a horse like Winx is aiming at the race this year, you account for that in the price and move on from the race.
In the past 6 months I’ve nailed Catchy at $26 in the Blue Diamond (my first bet into the market 2 months out) and Divine Prophet in the Caulfield Guineas at $31 (beat the bookies before they moved their market). There are always close misses along the way with Heartbreak City bet early for the Melbourne Cup at $51 and the $151 for Rich Enuff to win the Caulfield Guineas the year prior (half the stake was layed off at $2 before the race to secure a good profit). As always, it’s not just about getting a good position, but creating a positive market before the race is run a lot of the time. Catchy ended up being a 10 unit win with 3 units total invested in the race (0.5 on Catchy).
A perfect example of a horse I want to back below is Bondi Beach in the Adelaide Cup. The Stable have confirmed this is the first up target for the horse and this is a horse that has performed well in the past first up and is a high rating horse. If I was to compare Bondi Beach to the past two years winners in Tanby and Purple Smile, there is absolutely no comparison in quality and looking further back, this is a race that had consistently drawn lower class runners and winners. With the $7 being Bet, knowing the horse is set for the race, I’m more than happy to have a significant investment on the horse and would be shocked if the horse started beyond $3 on the day. It would take 2-3 strong nominations to really dent the starting price.

Australian Guineas – 4 March 2017
Attention
$17 @ Ladbrokes/William Hill/Centrebet/Bet365 + more

Confirmed runner with Brett Prebble flying in to take the ride. Didn’t impress me too much two back off the slow tempo at Caulfield when had ‘every chance’ but in reality was looking for a stronger tempo.

Last start over the weekend Attention jumped out in the WFA-G1 and only got 3.5kg on the field. Jumped from the outside barrier and had to work forward to sit outside the other leader in the race in Ecuador. Most importantly, Attention jumped almost the worst of any runner in the race and mustered hard early. They ran it along with a solid pace and most importantly with the Blinkers on Attention seemed to settle and was in the race a long way. He rolled in at the 250m and lost about 0.1-0.2L at very least when bumping Ecuador and having to find his feet again and fought it out well to the line.

He finished 0.9L off Black Heart Bart, 0.8L off Tosen Stardom, 0.3L off Ecuador while beating home Group 1 winner Lucky Hussler, Group 1 winner Palentino, Group 1 winner He’s Our Rokkii and Group 1 winner Turn Me Loose.

Attention drops back to 3YO grade and goes up to 1600m which from everything I saw last start, will more than suit. If he jumps well and draws a barrier 1-7, there is every chance he can get a sit off the leaders and be allowed to finish off more solidly at Flemington down the long straight. The price is great value and I’m keen to play.

Adelaide Cup – 13 March 2017
Bondi Beach
$10 @ Ladbrokes – $7 @ Sportsbet/Crownbet

Bondi Beach is the highest rated horse to compete in this race in the past 5 years. Looking at the potential fields available and the past winners, this horse is lengths ahead of the past 2-3 years winners.

2016 winner Purple Smile entered the race with a 74 Rating and came out of it with 97.
2015 winner Tanby rated a similar number to Purple Smile with a 97 rating for the win.
2014 winner Outback Joe recorded and it’s last run ever a peak of 100 rating.

On Official Australian Ratings alone, Bondi Beach has a 112 Rating, 12 above the 2014 winner and 15 above the last two year’s winners.

The yard have already confirmed this is the target and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bondi Beach turn up as the $2 favourite based on the ‘potential’ field currently up in the market. Very keen to bet up on this talented horse that performs well first up.

Golden Slipper – 18 March 2017
Houtzen
$8 @ Everywhere

Proved to be a top quality horse in her first prep winning 3 from 3 including the Magic Millions, a race run by last year’s Golden Slipper horse Capitalist. The MM win was something to behold doing it at both ends. She looks to have come back even stronger with a run over the weekend cementing the fact the horse is flying running 33.22/21.09/10.28.

As you all know, I back on-speed horses because they are the most profitable in the long run for a few reasons…. they make their own luck.. the fastest horses generally win races and that is how Houtzen runs races… and we know where we will be at the turn with 400m to go.. out front.. where exactly will She Will Reign be? Giving us 10L after missing the start and settling last? Happy to take the $8 on a quality horse that will be on speed setting the pace.

Australian Derby – 1 April 2017
Northwest Passage
$17 @ Bet365/Sportsbet/Unibet

Measured up to the medium level of the staying ranks last start at Moonee Valley leading start to finish and holding off all contenders the final 200m. Most impressively, the horse didn’t handle the sharp turn one bit and was laying out the whole way around it and had to balance up for 50m before putting the race away… will be much better suited back to a longer straight at Flemington this Saturday and will be hard to beat there… most importantly, will be jumping back to 3YO grade in the Australian Derby having already proved to be a top quality horse.

Australian Oaks – 8 April 2017
Lasqueti Spirit
$11 @ Luxbet/Unibet – $10 Ladbrokes/William Hill/Centrebet

Proved it on the dry ground last prep over 2500m with a 3.8L victory at Flemington in the Oaks. Went around at huge odds on the weekend and ran 2.0L 2nd to Winx over the unsuitable 1600m.. but looked very well suited to the wet track which is what we have install for the next few months up in Sydney by all weather reports.

Can only improve onwards and upwards and will be suited even better by the distance of the Australian Oaks. Beat home Who Shot Thebarman, Hartnell, Magic Hurricane and Endless Drama on the weekend just to name a few top quality stayers. Most importantly, there hasn’t been any other 3YO stayers stamping a claim and it will most likely take a good NZ import to knock Lasqueti off. Happy to take the double figure odds.

Caulfield Cup – 21 October 2017
Gold Trail
$67 @ Bet365 – $51 @ Sportsbet/TAB/WH

Massive odds for what I feel is the Caulfield Cup winner this far out. Comes into Australia off two peak runs in Dubai of 116 and 117+ Timeform rating which will have Gold Trail more than in the ratings to win a Caulfield Cup but still down in the weights having not won in top quality racing just yet.

The plan is simple for this horse and has been confirmed as the path. Win the Mornington Cup in late March and auto-qualify for the Caulfield Cup. This should get the horse in at 53kg or under, which has the horse as well weighted ratings wise as a Jameka last year. Most importantly, this horse loves dry tracks!

We will be backing this horse to win the Mornington Cup also so keep an eye out.

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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