The day is finally here. We will walk you through each runner and give you our opinions. There are a few being well backed that we think have no chance so we hope you don’t go too crazy on this race! Once again, if you are keen to back a horse, don’t let us stress you but we hope you are liking the same horses as us and our thoughts simply enhance your confidence.
Caulfield Race 8 – BMW Caulfield Cup
Americain always runs a strong race but the last two runs he put down were very poor. Off the 58kg, this is a very hard race to win. We are happy to be against Americain today.
Dunaden has been running very well recently and on the 2nd to Sea Moon two runs back, if reproduces that run, is right in this on times and ratings. Ignore last start when heavy weight was made to lead. A big chance.
Jakkalberry has some very average form lines. Jumped at $67-1 against Dunaden in Hong Kong in December of last year and since then has not finished within 3.8L of winning in a classy race like this with the only win an Open Race in the US. Needs to improve big time here for a chance but we don’t see it.
Winchester simply not classy enough. Not enough on first two runs in Australia.
December Draw will put in a solid run but when you consider the last two runs, he just doesn’t seem to have the turn of foot when jumped $3.30 favourite here last year. This also looks much classier than last year and the internationals look more game here today.
Voila Ici is one of the most interesting runners. Two very good first up runs and will improve again up in distance. I think for this horse to have a chance they need to take a sit today but chances are he will take the rail or sit outside of Glencadam Gold. Will certainly be staying on at the end on times.
Sanagas outclassed here.
Glencadam Gold comes into this race with some very solid times under his belt off 53.5kg. The barrier draw does hurt but there is no other speed horse in the race aprat from Voila Ici and we suspect the race won’t be run overly fast. He can go to the front and control the speed and launch late. His sectionals last start were sensational and will be hard to run down. The price two weeks ago was horrible but is now backable.
My Quest For Peace is one of the few runners here that has a huge hope of winning. 53.5kg is an absolute gift for this horse that has been running off 57kg and even 62.5kg. The issue is that My Quest For Peace hasn’t impressed recently. The win two back over this distance was when there was absolutely NO speed in the race. That race won run on a Good track in more than 12 seconds longer than Glencadam Gold’s last up win. Before that, the horse failed in WFA-G1,G2 in much faster times. My Quest will get a dream run from the barrier but the issue is if it will handle the pace.
Niwot doesn’t seem to be suited here. Hasn’t shown enough this prep.
Lights of Heaven is a very interesting runner. Was a super win in a very strong time last run last prep in Group 2 company over the 2400m. Showed enough last start to suggest she can go close but suspect may find a few too classy. Still, has a great shot.
Secret Admirer just keeps running solid races but has never ran at this distance so suspect won’t handle it.
Sneak a Peek is the most over-rated horse in this race. People have backed it hard into this race when the form lines are poor. We are giving Jakkalberry little to no chance so Sneak gets none here laso.
Alcopop has not shown near enough to be considered here today. Ignore last start when ran on in a race that ran to suit. That was a small 6 horse field which meant he got to sit within 2-3L. Today he will sit 10L back like the previous three runs this start. He is not classier than Dunaden or Americain who will be coming from equally far back.
Moudre needs to show a lot more than last start to be considered and didn’t show enough over 200m to consider here.
Folding Gear is a super interesting runner. Showed a lot last start and from barrier four can push forward to be in a position to launch late. 52kg suits and the times of his win were impressive enough for you to consider.
Zabeelionaire no chance. Has not shown anything since the 2500m 3Y Group 1 win over Sabrage and would need 46-47kg to be considered.
Sabrage is the first emergency and with Southern Speed just getting scratched gets a run. Sabrage has very little chance in this race. Is weighted nicely but on previous runs seems outclassed.
Gatewood is now a chance to get a run with Americain still a chance of being scratched and has a good chance of winning. The form lines are simply solid and the weight is the big issue that makes you look Gatewood’s way. Don’t expect them to run.
Finally, Fictional Account off the 50kg if a miracle happens and she gets a run is actually a very good chance. Ran home solidly over the 2500m two back in 2:36.5 which is a very solidly run race and from barrier 7 could be there at the finish.
We believe there are a few chances in the Caulfield Cup but believe Glencadam Gold is now a price that is backable and should get the run of the race to win.
How we expect them to finish (Excluding Fictional Account as most likely won’t get a run):
1. Glencadam Gold
2. Voila Ici
4. My Quest for Peace
6. Folding Gear
7. Lights of Heaven
8. December Draw
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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