Welcome to The Profits preview from for Caulfield 2 September 2017. Racing is back at Caulfield once again this week with the rail going out to the 6M range giving us a perfect 3-4 lanes on the inside of the track for leaders and on speeders to have every chance while i’m suspecting it will be tough for them to make up ground outside of that, but not impossible with the wind affecting those without cover throughout the card with up to 45km winds on the cards. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
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Caulfield Race 6 – Sheidel – 3.5 units @ $2.90 to win. Voodoo Lad – 2.5 units @ $4.20 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Schism – 1 unit Each-Way @ $11/$3.30
Caulfield Race 5 – Lyuba – 1 unit Each-Way @ $11/$3.50
Caulfield Race 9 – Souchez – 0.5 units @ $10 to win
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 13, 5, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 13, 16
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – Sheen Group Plate
1. Justice Glory: Good win first up at Sandown when not respected in the market. Good run on and suited by this type of track.
2. Prosecution: Maps perfectly today for a spot just off the lead. Just beaten last start by Justice Glory and comes into this better at the weights and a positive jockey change. Has to be respected.
3. Mahlani: Maiden winner first up at Echuca before wide no cover behind Justice Glory in a run that had a load of merit. Has to be respected.
4. Watchmespin: Maiden winner last start at Seymour heading into this. Need to find lengths again.
5. Hard Faith: Geelong maiden winner second up (beaten first up by Mahlani). Improvement required.
6. Judy in Disguise: Two runs and yet to get a win but ran well last start at Sandown only run down late by Justice Glory and Prosecution.
7. Play That Song: Ran home well from last but clearly not good enough compared to a few others first up. Others preferred here.
8. Runway Queen: 6 runs but yet to get a win on the board. Close the last two starts in maiden grade on synthetic. Big step up.
Comments: Really a rough race to start the day with form lines around Justice Glory and lesser races. I was impressed with the win of Justice Glory first up especially the how the horse went through the line and the step up to 1400m will suit better here.
Strategy: Justice Glory to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Chandler Macleod Plate
1. Risque: Terrible run first up when pulling up lame at course over 1100m. Up to a more suitable distance and back to dryer is suitable, but very hard to be overly confident with a return to form.
2. Schism: Settled much further back than expected last start ant didn’t run on well at all on a wetter surface. Back to dryer today and back to 1400m down in grade and loos much better suited with a 3kg claim.
3. Rocket Commander: Two runs back this prep and both for 4th in similar grades of race. Up to 1400m but poorly mapped today. Has to improve.
4. Forgeress: Four runs this prep and the best run was two back beating home Sullivan Bay. Got a good run the next start but lacked the dash. 3kg claim again today and up to 1400m.
5. Every Faith: Good win last start at Caulfield beating home Sullivan Bay and Divine Chills with an efficient ride on the rails. Up to 1400m much better suited and can go real well.
6. Firenze: Last start 2nd over 2800m. Needs further than 1400m.
7. Vital Importance: Freshened up after a long prep where she ran some very good races over 1400m including a 2nd to Schism in the final. Has to be respected again.
8. Oregon’s Day: Looked underdone in the yard first up and ran accordingly when well backed from out the back. Up to 1400m is much better for her chances and gets in well enough at the weights back onto a dryer surface. Will be storming home late.
9. Tahanee: Strong run first up at course and distance on a soft track when wide very early in the straight and just ran out of fitness. Will improve significantly for the run.
10. War Baby: Horrible run first up. Really wants further to find her best.
11. Swampland: Three wins in a row. Last start smashed a very good field and could have won by even further. Looks well placed here at the weights from a good barrier.
12. Heavenly Descent: First up today coming off a prep where she broke her maiden and then won two more in a row at Moonee Valley. Trialed well enough heading into this but this is a big ask first up. Good barrier.
13. Princess of Queens: Beat a nice field last start at Sandown and the run was better than the win suggests. Positive jockey change today and back to Caulfield with a good barrier. Hard to dismiss.
14. Falika: Eurell runner first up today. Looked a nice type over further in previous preps.
Comments: Very open race when you look at all the chances. Schism, Risque, Every Faith, Oregon’s Day, Tahanee, Swampland and Princess of Queens are all big chances here. Schism maps as the only likely leader and will be able to control the pace to be suitable on speed into the wind and to push away on the turn. If another horse decides to lead, Schism will then find the ideal spot just behind the leader. Ignore last start.. back to dryer surface has top class ability to bounce back here.
Strategy: Schism – 1 unit Each-Way @ $11/$3.30
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – HockingStuart Plate
1. Rich Luck: Good win first up in this grade and had a trial since being kept fresh between runs. Top weight but clearly top grade. Maps to be on speed.
2. Suspense: Snowden horse freshened up after two disappointing runs in slightly harder grade. Not convinced here for me.
3. Mr Sneaky: Ran very well last prep with two wins at Caulfield and Flemington to end the prep over different distances. First up and has to be respected here from a better than midfield position.
4. Theanswermyfriend: Good run first up and up in distance suitable for this nicely conditioned bloke. Will have improved since last start when did a load of work and gets in well enough at the weights. Wide barrier the only issue for spot in run.
5. Tribal Wisdom: Fairly beaten first up down the straight over 1000m and last prep runs suggest he needs a soft 7 over this distance.
6. Danuki: Trialed well enough heading into this but has missed a few important runs compared to stronger fitter horses here.
7. Dusty Jack: Got back and flew home last start behind Theanswermyfriend and comes in with a similar weight. Barrier makes it tough but expect a 3-wide with cover coming wider late.
8. Highland Beat: Good win at Flemington three back when came home strongly late to claim a nice win. Disappointing the past two runs but can improve.
9. Saint Valorem: Nice enough win two back at course and similar distance where wind played a part. Similar today but clearly beaten no excuses last start.
10. Smart As You Think: Trialled well enough infront of Rich Charm at Traralgon and comes off a good G3 placing in the SA Classic over 2500m. Clearly needs further.
11. Violate: Goes well enough over the short distances but in the past has been aimed at the 2000m goals. Hard to suggest in this grade.
12. Bezel: Quality Godolphin horse that placed in G3 company. Last prep had a horrible prep with thumps, respiratory issues and a few other items. Williams onboard and has to be respected on the booking and stable alone.
13. Devils Pinch: Average at best first up and past performances suggest the horse has some ability but clearly looks outclassed here.
14. Hallelujah Boy: Three trials heading in for this Japanese import. Won a 150k race over 1600m back home. Distance only query.
15. Handsome Thief: Weir runner second up after a heavy track fail. Respectable but not great. Best runs still a a step below these.
16. Fursa: Will have come on for the run first up at course over a similar distance when on a softer and not suited. Back to a firmer track and run on late type race, could be very well suited.
17. Star Fortune: Best work in easier than this. Others preferred on recent run.
18. Battlecamp: Old mate never runs poorly but hardly ever gets a win. First up and up in grade.
19. Verstappen: Fairly beaten first up at Geelong by a nice type in Crystal Fountain. Previous preps listed grade 2nd behind Rich Charm.
Comments: Wide open race with several chances. Rich Luck, Mr Sneaky, Fursa, Dusty Jack, TheAnswerMyFriend, Highland Beat and a few more are all capable of winning this. Fursa maps to get the right run today in a race not overly strong on speed and I think is worth a forgive for last start at odds.
Strategy: Fursa E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1200m – H.D.F McNeil Stakes
1. Kobayashi: Real disappointing effort first up when wasn’t 100% fit in the yard but was still good enough., Beaten 1.8L and have to improve on the run.
2. Merchant Navy: Three starts three wins. Drifter last start at Flemington on the ANZAC Day Stakes but handled the wet track with ease and smashed them. Was a decent field in the end. Respect.
3. Trekking: Godolphin runner that trialed well before a good third behind Menari.
4. Hualalai: Trial win heading into this. Will be on speed and has won in 2YO grade up north in the past.
5. Muraahib: First up today coming off a 6th in the Blue Diamond. Best was seen over 1200m for mine in the past. Has ability.
6. Evil Cry: Disappointing run last start when didn’t go forward and sat near the rear losing by 3.8L. Best is better than that.
7. King’s Authority: Flemington winner 250 days ago before returning last start over 1000m not good enough for the tempo. Up to 1200m should suit.
8. Poseidon’s Pool: Nice run home last start for third in G3 company behind Juke and Plutocracy. Respect this horses ability and barrier 1.
10. Ploverset: Respectable run third fairly beaten last start behind Catchy and Crown Witness. Have to improve again.
11. Booker: Flemeington start race winner before 2nd in the G3 at Morphetville. Has ability but others preferred from barriers.
Comments: Really feel Muraahib is the real deal and will have come back bigger and better than ever. Merchant Navy obviously hard to beat and Trekking’s form lines are solid.
Strategy: Muraahib E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Cockram Stakes
1. Savanna Amour: Maps well today midfield and gets a dry track again. G3 and G2 winner on past form. Has to be respected.
2. Fuhryk: Top quality mare who ended last prep with a wide the trip. Looks the deal deal this car. Maps well today.
3. Ana Royale: Last win over 2500m. Needs further.
4. Flying Jess: 3Yo Magic Millions winner first up today after failing up north. Hard to suggest at current rate but probably starts longer.
5. Jennifer Lynn: First up today and Shinn takes the ride again. Last prep went close over 1100m at Flemington behind Navagio. Next two starts were fair but not overly ideal with 3L defeats at Caulfield. If the money comes keep an eye on her.
6. I Am Zelady: Second up today after a heavy track fail first up at Morphetville. Previous form suggests she is a class or two below this but did run 7th in the G1 Sangster.
7. Miss Cover Girl: G2 placed first up last prep over 1200m at Eagle Farm on a wet surface. Next 3 starts found nothing. Best fresh?
8. Sword of Light: Ended last prep with two wins from the past 3 starts with 7th in a G1 to finish the prep. Best seen over further.
9. Sullivan Bay: Consistent as the day is long. Got another win on the board last start at Caulfield and most importantly it was off a strong tempo. Won’t be suited by the wind today only negative.
10. Lyuba: Stirred up in the yard last start and didn’t have the fitness or mind to get past Sullivan Bay. Expect she will be much better off today back to a dryer track. If quieter in the yard, looks the one to beat.
11. Foreign Affair: Echuca win last start over some average types. Previous run/win was in a much easier race.
12. Divine Chills: Think we just ignore last start and rate on two back run when split Every Faith and Divine Chils. Certainly has to re-gain form and improve but others can also.
13. Written Era: Disappointing from midfield last start behind Sullivan Bay. Really needs the run for mine. Better on wetter.
Comments: Another open race. Savanna Amour, Fuhryk, Sullivan Bay, Lyuba and Divine Chills also figure. If Lyuba is good enough then she will win the race with a charmed run off the back of Sullivan Bay.
Strategy: Lyuba – 1 unit @ $11/$3.50 Each-Way.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m – MyPunter.Com.Au The Heath 1100
1. Saracino: Group 2 winner that has measured up in G1s in the past. First up today after a G2 Wellington Guineas win in the Autumn. Best seen on Soft 5 and beyond the issue.
2. Voodoo Lad: First up today this G1 2nd placed runner. G3 winner over 1400m as well but did run very well 2nd in the Newmarket. Looks the goods.
3. Malibu Style: Huge disappointment to end last prep with a loss and no place but was in the worst part of the track. Back to Caulfield and can run well if near top.
4. Sheidel: G1 winner at course and distance and gets in very well at the weights here. Strong 7L trial win heading in. Wind factor the only negative.
5. That’s A Good Idea: Been running up north with 3 runs for no placings but all within 2.3L of wins. Wasn’t bad last start 1.6L off Deploy and The Virginian. Has to be considered.
6. Divine Ten: Not going well enough to be given the win here. Have to take on.
7. Legless Veuve: Bar plates off which is big for this horse that had it’s last win in G3 class when bar plates came off. Expected to be well forward today.
8. Crystal Dreamer: Looked a nice 1000m type last prep at Caulfield and Flemington beating Malibu Style and running alongside Legless Veuve.
9. Royal Tudor: No cover last start over 1400m at Rosehill ending last prep to win well. 1100m looks short but did win first up last prep in easier grade. Best over further?
10. We’ve Got This: G2 2nd to The Quarterback the best in the past but since then hasn’t gone close. Hard to have.
11. So Si Bon: Flashed home first up to score a 2nd to Sunday Escape which isn’t overly strong form. Respect but lay at odds.
12. Runson: Fairly beaten last start. Previous runs say well below their grade. Not for me.
Comments: Keen on Sheidel and Voodoo Lad being the two to beat in this race while Royal Tudor, Malibu Style and Legless Veuve are the improvers that could test them. Happy to play the top two in the market.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Strategy: Sheidel – 3.5 units @ $2.90. Voodoo Lad – 2.5 units @ $4.20.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes
1. Black Heart Bart: WFA superstar. Good enough run first up off a slow tempo on a non-ideal soft track. Expect more speed on today and maps perfectly. Only issue is coming off a mild lameness. BHB has run at Caulfield 7 times (x5 in G1) and never missed a place and 14 starts over 1400m (4x in G1) and never missed a place. Looks a very good chance mapped perfect with huge winds on the day. 3/4 bar plate goes on which is a HUGE negative.
2. Le Romain: Comes into this 2nd up today with 3 trials under his belt including one between runs. G2 2nd to Invincible Gem first up as a $1.95 favourite on a Soft track but this is a horse that does handle it. Up to 1400m where the horse has actually never won but does go well. Never run at this track in the past a big negative. Does map well from the gate though.
3. Tosen Stardom: Paraded at top first up when beaten fairly off a slow tempo. Tongue Tie goes on and obviously would be better suited with a strong tempo. Has to be respected on the stables opinion and booking of Shinn.
4. Humidor: G1 winner over 2000m last prep. Nice enough run first up but obviously needs further.
5. Vega Magic: Top class win first up at Caulfield over 1200m. Has won over 1400m in the past just as impressively on past performances but this is another step up. Suited at WFA not giving away weights unlike the last two quality wins. Only issue is likelihood to be facing a strong breeze.
6. Charmed Harmony: Got a wet track last start and ran a career best 2nd in G2 company. Won’t get the right track rating today and will need to improve. Going strongly into the head winds won’t suit either today.
7. Jon Snow: Needs further and wetter.
8. Hey Doc: Strong win first up down the straight over 1200m. Wasn’t fully wound up in the yard and will be peaking here today and from barrier 1 will get a suck run and need luck at the right time to get out but will be good enough to figure.
9. Seaburge: First up today at a less than suitable distance. G1 2nd on the record over 2000m but has also run 2nd over 1600m in G1. Can be respected but hard to see the big improvement here.
10. Single Gaze: G2 winner over 2200m. Looks forward first up on trials but clearly this is a huge step up over an unsuitable distance.
11. I Am a Star: Solid enough return first up behind Hey Doc and gets in well here today from a decent gate. Jockey change not a negative but Dunn is suited to riding style of this type of horse. Will be out the back (midfield at bets) running on.
12. Yankee Rose: Two trials heading in and looks to be back in form. G1 winner last prep up and over 2000m so big query over the horses best distance. Obviously ran very well in G1 class over 1600m. Needs the run here for mine.
Comments: Black Heart Bart, Vega Magic and Hey Doc are my three shortlisted runners here and the ones i’m keen to play around. I was very keen on Bart to place until the 3/4 bar plate went on Friday and I have to play around the horse.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8
Strategy: Back Vega Magic and Hey Doc
Caulfield Race 8 – 1700m – Dream Thoroughbreds Heatherlie Stakes
1. Ventura Storm: Melbourne Cup bound. First up last prep under-done and ran very well with a big weight over 2000m at Flemington to be defeated 1.65L in the final 100m. First up over 1700m with 2 lead in trials and he is MUCH fitter today but this is still short of his best distances. Aimed at 3200m and will improve significantly from this run. Expect a strong tempo.
2. Assign: Strong run to end last prep with a 2000m victory in G3 class on Heavy. Herbert Power winner the previous prep also. Should handle this distance having won over 1800m in the past at Sandown.
3. Tally: Nice enough forward run first up just out sprinted by Sovereign Nation but stuck on well. Up to 1700m and will improve but best runs will be 2000m+.
4. Amralah: Horrible first up over 1600m and stays at 1700m. Did win the Herbert Power in 2015 and hadn’t been seen since.
5. Guardini: Not the worst first up with top weight behind Rhythm to Spare at course over 1600m when had a skin disease. Previous prep won a G3 at Randwick and 2nd to Lebaz in G3 Easter Cup over 2000m. Include in Quaddie.
6. Harlem: French Import that looked best over 3000m+ in the past. Did run very well first up over 1600m when 3rd to Palentino. Two nice trials leading in.
7. Amelie’s Star: Nice type of horse and goes well over these distances. Did win a G2 last prep at Morphetville and 4th in G1 company. First up run was fairly plat from back in a slowly run race but will improve for the run that’s for sure. Win wouldn’t shock.
8. Montoya’s Secret: Didn’t show anything first up. Previous prep went through grades to run well in Maiden, BM-64 grade and then won a G1 on heavy. Best over further but can be respected over this distance also.
9. Hell or Highwater: Continues to run well. No claim today but down to 54kg and will be rolling them along out front at the track that has been so kind to her in the past
10. Vengeur Masque: Best in the past over much further.
11. Fanatic: Well beaten first up and looking for 2000m+ from past experiences with 3200m the ultimate aim.
12. Magnapal: Very good run first up but went backwards last start. Will get a nice run today but has to improve to place.
13. Tiamo Grace: Backed first up at Caulfield but ran horrible. Not up to this on current form. Is a G2 winner.
14. Don Doremo: Hasn’t gone close over these distances in a long time. Best over 2400m+ in past.
15. Dulverton: Out the back last start and ran on solidly but never a chance. Worse off at weights today an issue and will get back run on.
Comments: Not an overly strong race on paper iwth a lot of horses looking for further. This looks to be Amelie’s Star’s right distance and I can expect she can run well here.
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 9
Strategy: Amelie’s Star
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Comcater Handicap
1. Turnitaround: 290 days between runs after having a collapsed nostril issue at the end of last prep. Trailed up quite well heading into this and will be fit. In reality first up does need the run and best over further.
2. Grande Rosso: Listed winner last prep and ran very well 3rd in the G3 first up over the 1200m. Maps to get a position midfield and will be hitting the line strongly. Suited up to 1400m today obviously and can improve.
3. Berisha: Looking for further than this after the poor first up run.
4. Chocolate Holic: Has been well backed. Finally up to 1400m where better suited. Not terrible last start but didn’t exactly blow me away.
5. Great Esteem: First up over the 1400m. Best in the past has been over slightly further but don’t be shocked by a good run.
6. Hardham: Ended last prep with a G1 3rd when ran a brilliant race in the ATC Derby. Best in the past has been over further.
7. Snitzson: Didn’t find much first up from a bad lane at Flemington so run had a little more merit than it looked. Up to 1400m ideal but really needs the run on what i’ve seen.
8. Cool Chap: Trailed well heading into this. Best runs in the past have been over further but does look wound up to run well here.
9. Yesterday’s Songs: Disappointing last start at Flemington in bad part of the track. Step up to 1400m a throw at stumps.
10. Refulgent: 180 days off the track. Was competitive last prep in similar grades of races but did seem to find a few too good. Has to have improved first up.
11. Tarquin: Godolphin runner that ended last prep 3rd in the Vobis Gold Heath behind some good types in Ruthven and Toffee Nose. Best runs 2000m+
12. Red Alto: Found very little last week at Moonee Valley from last over 1200m. Step up to 1400m more suitable today and will be wound up. Good run wouldn’t be a total shock.
13. Souchez: 4 trials heading into first up run when disappointing overall from out the back. Up to 1400m can see him run much better but he will be getting back and running home late from a poor barrier.
14. Our Bottino: First up today and will be on speed. 1400m a little short of his best distances but not out of the question. Never placed first up in the past.
15. Dodging Bullets: Summer Championship winner over 1700m before placing behind good types after that over further. Best over further than this but does go well first up.
16. Divine Mr Artie: Been running some very very very good races the past three and has been saved up for this with nearly a month between runs. Kathy O’Hara booking very strange. Will get back and have to come over the top of many a runner.
Comments: On past runs Souchez has to be respected. Ozi’s Choice looks over the odds while Grande Rosso is clearly the horse to beat here. Divine Mr Artie a query with Kathy onboard down here getting a long way back. Think Ozi has the chance on mapping and Souchez will get the uninterrupted run out wide from a 3-wide cover spot.
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 13, 16
Strategy: ouchez – 0.5 units @ $10 to win