Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 31 March 2018.
The track has had a month off between runnings and will be fair to on speed one would expect based on patterns expected. No real wind around or rain and the rail out 6m. Good luck and happy punting. Looks a good play early and a few good bets later in the day.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap – 2YOs
2. Sanglier: Got the maiden win last start and trialed well enough between runs. Placed in 2YO top grade in past. Respect obviously.
3. Sunset Watch: Strong run first up 5th behind some nice types but fairly beaten in top grade. Back to Maiden grade last start and beat some average types. Has to improve again.
4. I’m Cheeky: No public trials.
5. Juthoor: Only fair trials on lead in and certainly a late 2YO for this stable. Money suggests can run well.
6. Sizzlesun: Got back and ran on really well off a slow tempo at Morphetville last start. Similar grade of race and looks the right type to measure up here.
8. Yulong Pluto: Trial winner. Price yard at home.
10. Californiasurprise: Shown nothing in early 2YO runs. Newitt onboard for Snowden stable?! Lead in trials ok?
Top Chances: Sizzlesun,
High Chances: Sanglier, Sunset Watch, Juthoor
Medium Chances: Yulong Pluto
Low Chances: I’m Cheeky, Californiasurprise
Very Low Chances: None
Expected Speed: Not expecting them to go fast here unless a first starter takes it up and pushes along.
Comments: Sizzlesun did everything needed to measure up and win here and looks the value in the race. Sanglier gets the nod over Sunset Watch for next best in the race. Certainly need to account for yard here with 4 first starters as reality outside of top pick is while many of these have the potential to run good figures, the two favourites haven’t run those figures recently.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Noel Rundle Handicap – Mares
1. Sullivan Bay: Good return first up when 4th at Morphetville. Back to Caulfield where she loves it and back to mares grade. Loaded with weight but obviously goes well on speed here. Ready third up to set a solid tempo.
2. Hear the Chant: Strong win first up. Shocker of a ride 2nd up and Mallyon given the flick. Kersley a strong 2kg claimer and horse maps for ideal run for a strong late 300m when finds a way off rail.
3. Crystal Fountain: First up for 130 days. Group 3 third last prep at Flemington. Close 3rd in Listed grade and then went to Ascot and started favourite and ran 6th. Obviously a nice type of horse but needs to be at top of game first up to win this.
4. Our Gladiator: On speed type. Got away with murder last start at Moonee Valley and Highly doubt that occurs here. Outclassed.
5. Motown Lil: Trial between runs coming off a disappointing run first up at Flemington. Hard to see turn of tables on Hear The Chant.
6. Selenia: Trialed on lead in and looks to be going okay. Last prep failed to go close. Previous prep placed in open class at course over distance. If back to best run well.
7. Scuzi: Three wins in a row this prep. Big jump in grade again. Hard to suggest.
8. Perfect Statue: Hard to suggest off BM-58 grade runs last prep or first up BM-70 run.
Top Chances: Hear the Chant
High Chances: Sullivan Bay
Medium Chances: Selenia, Crystal Fountain
Low Chances: Our Gladiator, Motown Lil, Scuzi
Very Low Chances: Perfect Statue
Expected Speed: If Sullivan Bay is ridden correctly then the speed should be genuinely 3-5L above benchmark early. If Our Gladiator is allowed to lead -2L to average.
Comments: Trusting the Hayes stable to have the right tactics with Sullivan Bay to lead a strong clip as it will also suit Hear The Chant – it’s logical. Sullivan Bay is the big value in race. Hear The Chant the one to clearly beat, maps a dream and suited any tempo – but will get it’s best here. Selenia went backwards last prep but can go well here. Crystal Fountain the other main chance but under the odds currently.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1400m – Bill Collins Handicap – BM-78
2. Runson: Hugely disappointing run last start and run prior. Back up to 1400m here. Best measures up.
3. Thelburg: Pulled up lame last start. Take on here off a lameness issue.
4. Lizard Island: Last start was it’s chance and produced little to none. Hard to have but really back in grade here and ok at weights… one last chance?
5. Castelo: Won first up and then couldn’t go a yard last start. Still not fit?
6. Sabotage: Got perfect ride and run last start to score a win at Moonee Valley. Was suited by strong tempo. Lightly raced in Country and can suit here.
8. Noumea: Lightly raced type in Australia. First up over 1400m again. Bred for further? Did run well first up last prep.
9. Can’t Refuse: Poor first up. Best would not go close here either. Take on.
10. Chippenham: Not suited by tempo last start? Best off a strong tempo and may just find it here. Back in class ideal.
13. Expinsive: Bm-78 winner last start in a slowly run race at Geelong. Never ran time in the past. Hard to suggest here.
14. Catesby: Class 1 winner and then BM-76 winner on lead in. Jump in class here but horse has ability.
16. Linguist: Strong win last prep at Flemington showing significant class. Failed in final run of the prep over 1600m to fire as favourite. Horse clearly has ability.
17. Simply Splashing: Strong win four back at Sandown showing strong final 600m sprint in the horses legs. Produced similar two back in harder class than this. Disappointed last start. Not out of this.
18. Electric Charlie: Well backed at Wang last start and got the win. Big jump in class here. Hard to consider on best this prep but best in past can go well.
19. Four By Four: Two lead in trials after 200+ days off. Best in past is good enough to run well but not convinced of a win here over this distance.
20. O’lonhro Bay: Last start winner. Never run time. Take on.
Top Chances: Linguist, Catesby
High Chances: Chippenham, Sabotage
Medium Chances: Castelo, Lizard Island, Runson
Low Chances: Electric Charlie, Thelburg, Noumea
Very Low Chances: Can’t Refuse, Expinsive, O’lonhro Bay, Four By Four
Expected Speed: Lack of tempo from the front runners suggests around average to 2L above benchmark early at very best.
Comments: Very open race. Linguist and Catesby the standouts and map well. Chippenham the ultimate danger to the two.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Bert Bryant Handicap – 3YO Fillies Handicap
1. Blondie: Likely leader. First up here off a strong last prep when scored a Listed grade race. Won first up last prep and chop king jnr takes ride. Best go really well here.
2. Regimen: Two runs in this prep. Strong 2nd last start behind She’s So High. Fairly beaten but ran well enough to make a dent here! Consider.
3. Time Awaits: Disappointing run last start at Flemington. A return to best today which is possible can see the horse run well.
4. Ploverset: Big run first up with a lot more to come from the yard. Awkward barrier and will have to face the breeze but gets the right track to do it. Respect.
5. Fox Swift: Wrong part of the track last start but even so well below best again. Return to best with nice weight could see horse go close.
6. Tarcoola Spirit: Strong run 3rd behind Demerara. Continues to produce strong figures. Can go well here again. Versatile type.
7. Doves Cry: Lightly raced type. Big break between runs. Trialed well enough. Massive improvement needed.
8. Pure Emotion: Disappointing first up. Not shown enough in the past since 2YO grade to measure up. Even then, well below mark.
9. Moet Rose: Lightly raced. Two runs. 200 days between runs and every chance the horse can go well.
10. Wildwood Jade: Two runs this prep and well below what is needed here.
11. River Jewel: Last prep competing in harder races than this was running well without ever looking the winner. Previous prep a step below again. Best over further?
12. From the Clouds: Nice enough type on best in the past but hasn’t gone close to that in a while. Hard to suggest for win.
13. Golden Lustre: Strong lead in barrier trial. Horse looked the type 2nd to Nature Strip last prep. Lightly raced and respect here low weights.
14. Miss Vixen: Had chances last start in slowly run race but never gone close. Hard to know where horses top is.
15. Pageantry: Only getting back to fitness. Even so best from past is below what is needed here.
Top Chances: Ploverset, Tarcoola Spirit
High Chances: Golden Lustre, Blondie, Fox Swift, Regimen
Medium Chances: Time Awaits, Moet Rose, River Jewel, From the Clouds
Low Chances: Doves Cry, Pure Emotion, Miss Vixen, Pageantry
Very Low Chances: Wildwood Jade
Expected Speed: Solid speed expected around 4-6L above benchmark out front. Genuine tempo will see best horses run well.
Comments: Ploverset ran a personal best last start and has more to come – looks well in at weights. Main danger looks to be Tarcoola Spirit. Blondie will be a good chance from on speed while Golden Lustre is the unknown with more improvement to come.
Caulfield Race 5 – 2000m – Jack Elliot Handicap – 3YO Handicap
1. Wolfendale: Listed grade winner over in Tasmania. This looks much harder but is now with Weir stable so natural improvement surely.
2. Indernile: Ridden too far forward last start and didn’t finish off in the race. Big step up in distance. Throw at stumps?
3. All Hard Wood: Lightly raced type. Ran a career best run last start and beaten by a good type. Step up needed here but on right track.
4. Alpha: Ran well last start in easier grade. Never run times so hard to suggest.
5. Aroha Te Mana: Two runs this prep. Got a maiden win but hasn’t run times needed to win a race like this. Improvement needed.
6. Creedence: Three runs this prep and finally scored a maiden win last start. Not the worst form in this race but clearly has to run better here.
7. Han Xin: Maiden winner two back and failed to get close in a Class 1 last start. Has to improve up in distance.
9. Won Won Too: Strong run two back at Caulfield but didn’t have the race run to suit last start at Cranbourne and run down late. Needs to be at best to improve again.
10. Dewrinkler: 7L winner last start at Terang in a maiden but really was a slow race beating scrubbers. That being said, best run in past first up showed horse has ability.
11. Grand Casino: Nice type first up here. Went close in harder near end of last prep over the 1600m and 2400m. Respect this horse.
12. Berkshire Lady: 3rd in the Tassie Oaks. Maiden winner two back. Didn’t get the Oaks run to suit to show full potential but have to respect the horse here.
13. Christie: Yarra Valley winner last start. Not done anything to suggest a win here.
14. Silent Roar: Strong 3rd behind High Sierra last start at Moonee Valley when they set a suicide tempo and horse found ok to line. Horse will have improved and be much better suited here. Looks a very good type.
17. Whoomph: Looked a nice type first prep but failed to go on with it significantly here. Hard to suggest.
18. Heir to the Throne: Couldn’t win a maiden last start.
Top Chances: Silent Roar
High Chances: All Hard Wood, Grand Casino, Berkshire Lady
Medium Chances: Creedence, Dewrinkler, Won Won Too
Low Chances: Alpha, Wolfendale, Indernile, Aroha Te Mana, Whoomph
Very Low Chances: Han Xin, Christie, Heir to the Throne
Expected Speed: Average to 3L above benchmark – no break away leaders on paper.
Comments: Convinced Silent Roar is a genuine star in the making and huge overs in this race. Bet of the day type. Main dangers All Hard Wood.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1800m – Robert Taranto Handicap – BM-84
1. Magic Consol: Fourth up today. Last prep ran some really elite times over these distances when got fit enough. May have improved enough to run well.
2. Yogi: Returning from half a year off after going through the grades up to Group 3s. Very best in the past over further than this but even so in this grade can run well.
3. Quick Defence: Strong win at Randwick three back but not gone close to that form since. Best over shorter distances than this?
5. Naval Warfare: Ignore last start run when not ridden correctly. Right distance and can push forward here. Type for this.
6. Prima: Up in distance and continues to improve this prep. Up in distance and much better suited. Right lead in.
7. Portman: Blocked for runs at critical times didn’t get run. Up in distance but should go well.
8. Top of the Range: Shows elite final 600m. Goes well at this track but once again will get a long way back and have to need luck to run them all down.
9. Chequered Flag: 2nd up today. First up ran home ok coming off a slowly run race over 1400m. Has to improve very best suited 2500m+
11. Pow Wow: Strong run first up at Flemington when blocked for runs at critical times. Fit enough and 2nd up will be suited with extra 200m distance.
12. Savatag: Lightly raced type in Australia. Two runs very strong over in Adelaide. Could go to next level.
13. Addison: Another strong run off a strong tempo at Flemington from off the speed. Top chance.
15. No Commitment: Got the win off a strong tempo set out front. Has to be respected. Stayer.
16. Laughing Heir: Shown little this prep. Last prep went well at MV. Need to find very best.
Top Chances: Top of the Range
High Chances: Prima, Portman, No Commitment, Addison, Naval Warfare
Medium Chances: Savatag, Pow Wow, Chequered Flag, Quick Defense
Low Chances: Yogi, Magic Consol,
Very Low Chances: Laughing Heir
Expected Speed: Unknown speed with Naval Warfare, Prima or a few others that could run them along. Average to 6L above.
Comments: Wide open race. I really respect Naval Warfare and think if they lead today the horse could kick away on the turn and win. Horses like Quick Defence can run well at odds so can Addison or No Commitment if they run it along. Even Pow Wow is a follow on my list. End of the day, Top of the Range will be hard to hold out and Prima is the clear on speed value. Hard race to get involved in.
Caulfield Race 7 – 2000m – Le Pine Funerals Easter Cup – Easter Cup
2. Berisha: Two runs this prep and hasn’t gone close to best. Can run well but obviously needs to improve.
4. Odeon: Ran okay first two runs. Up in distance to ideal trip. Wants speed on. Back in class. Respect.
5. Steps: Best runs were last start 5th in Group 3 and three back first in Group 3 company. Still well below the levels needed to be placing or going close in a race like a Caulfield Cup, this 2400m runner looks the type that will get over further and is still only a 4YO with more scope to come. Strong staying type who beat Johannes Vermeer last prep.
6. Montoya’s Secret: Scratched up north last start. Going well this prep and back in class.
7. Jacquinot Bay: Coming to end of career and questionable if he can win a race like this against top class horses. Can still run a nice race.
8. Life Less Ordinary: Failed first up off two ok trials. Last prep went close but couldn’t get a win. Need to be at top.
9. Golden Mane: At top last start. Strong 3rd behind Holmesman last start. Looks a big chance.
10. Fastnet Dragon: Strong third in the Mornington Cup. Likely type and distance go ok.
11. Shoreham: Ran them along slowly at Mornington last start. Need speed on here and may get it.
Top Chances: Steps
High Chances: Odeon, Golden Mane
Medium Chances: Fastnet Dragon, Montoya’s Secret
Low Chances: Shoreham, Jacquinot Bay, Life Less Ordinary
Very Low Chances: Berisha
Expected Speed: Steps expected to push the speed out front. 3-8L above benchmark.
Comments: The market has no clue just how good this import in Steps is. Beating Johannes Vermeer is great international form and times back it up. Thelegit real deal and the speed will be on. Odeon looks the main danger.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – MyPunter.com Victoria Handicap
1. He’s Our Rokkii: Hasn’t won in a long time. Two runs this prep in easier grades.. more to come from yard. Best obviously good enough but hard to see it happening?
2. Rhythm to Spare: 150 days between runs. Last prep returned very very well and got the win the next start. Went through the grades that prep and looked a Group horse. Maps perfectly.
3. Amovatio: Flew home first up at Flemington. Fairly beaten last prep by Amovatio. Can run well.
4. Fastnet Tempest: Never suited by distance in Newmarket. Best seen 1400-1600m. Nice type last prep but really can’t suggest off first run?
5. Turnitaround: Goes well first up. Best seen over further than this on past prep.
6. Theanswermyfriend: Just beaten last start in listed company. Game strong run. Can win.
7. Cannyescent: Ran better last start at Moonee Valley and now wanting 1400m. Can measure up again here back to this grade up in distance.
8. Ken’s Dream: Not a bad run in the Newmarket! Going well this prep and looks a nice type over 1400m.
9. So Si Bon: Not suiteds first up in Newmarket. Two trials since and over 1400m now.
10. Widgee Turf: Strong type. Ran well below best last start. Looked to be coming to end of prep off that run but has trialed well since. Best on wetter than this.
11. Raw Impulse: First up for 130 days. Best has always been seen 1600m+ in the past. Goes best deeper into preps. Listed grade horse.
12. Sword of Light: Disappointing run last start. Should be further forward here. Strong Group 1 run first up. Run well.
13. Glenall: Very forward the last two runs so will be at top again. Maps nicely on speed.
15. Steel Frost: Loomed but fairly beaten last two starts. Trialed well between runs. Up in class here. Nice type.
16. Royal Rumble: 9th first up on lead in to this run. Goes well but this is much harder.
17. Violate: Not suited by distance first up. Stays at 1400m though is the strange thing. Go well.
Top Chances: Ken’s Dream, Sword of Light
High Chances: Rhythm to Spare, Theanswermyfriend, Cannyescent, Glenall
Medium Chances: Amovatio, So Si Bon, Widgee Turf, Violate
Low Chances: He’s Our Rokkii, Fastnet Tempest, Steel Frost, Raw Impulse
Very Low Chances: Turnitaround, Royal Rumble
Expected Speed: Can’t see a huge speed out front from expected leaders. Average to 3.5L above average.
Comments: Strong race. Ken’s Dream looks the standout here but gets a long way back. Sword of Light nice spot in run big odds. Same with Rhythm to Spare. Theanswermyfriend and Glenall the obvious ones to run down from on speed. Open race.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1200m – Geoff Murphy Handicap
1. Milwaukee: Strong win at Flemington when well backed. Up in class but well in.
2. Murt the Flirt: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Hard to suggest.
3. Tarquin: Nice enough type but hasn’t won in a long time. Went close last prep in harder races. Best over further.
4. Murphy’s Reward: Continues to run consistently well this prep. Up in class again.
5. The Iliad: Horrible first up. Take on.
6. Star Stealer: Went to Colac to get a win last start. Previous runs very strong. Can measure up and run well.
7. Dan Zephyr: Changed stable. 70 days between runs. Goes ok but may perhaps later in life be below this grade.
8. El Sicario: Won well last start at Morphetville and times were sound. Measure up here.
10. Pick Me Up: Two barrier trials on lead in. Previous prep went well in easier than this. Respect enough.
11. Written Era: Average at best first up. Stable think horse in for a good prep.
12. Handsome Thief: Not suited by tempo any runs this prep. Went close just missed last start when genuine average tempo speed at least early. Wants more speed again.
14. Highland Beat: Every chance the past two starts. Two back run was good but last start trash. Has to improve again. Goes well at Caulfield.
16. The Mighty Jrod: Can’t understand this trainer. Crazy nomination.
Top Chances: Milwaukee, Handsome Thief
High Chances: El Sicario, Written Era
Medium Chances: Highland Beat, Murphy’s reward, Star Stealer, Pick Me Up
Low Chances: Murt the Flirt, Tarquin, Dan Zephyr
Very Low Chances: The Mighty Jrod, The Iliad
Expected Speed: Can’t see huge speed on. Average speed to 3L above average.
Comments: Milwaukee can lead them around here and be very hard to run down. Handsome Thief and El Sicario look the clear dangers.