Welcome to The Profits preview from for Flemington 5 August 2017. Racing returns to Flemington for the next two Saturday’s coming off a disappointing weekend of blocked runs for our best bets before the meeting was cancelled due to wind at Caulfield last week. A very interesting card on offer at Flemington and as long as the wind doesn’t get ahold of our picks, i’m really excited for a big day! As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
*Please note the heavy wind conditions 35-45km predicted for the day which could cause issues for certain positions throughout the card*
Flemington Race 5 – Hay Bale – 6 units @ $3.80 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Second Bullet – 2 units @ $5.00 to win. Extra Zero – 1 unit @ $10.00 to win. Aloft – 2.2 units @ $4.60 to win.
Flemington Race 3 – Chateau Griffo – 3 units @ $3.50 to win.
Flemington Race 8 – Rhythm to Spare – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.75
Flemington Race 2 – Miss It and a Bit – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.40
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 12, 13, 18
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 17
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 12, 14, 15
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
For those that preview a discussion on form in Video format, you can watch the videos below.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – VRC Members Pavilion Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Average to Above Average tempo
1. Azazel: First up for 178 days after a strong second and 4th in Blue Diamond Preview and Prelude behind Property and Pariah. Top weight the only issue bit is with the right patient stable for this horse.
2. Wait for No One: Has been training to settle and take a sit off the lead and will attempt that today. Best runs last few preps was good enough to run 3rd behind Pariah and a few others. Handles the straight.
3. Cao Cao: Stable have a big wrap for this horse but the two runs last prep showed me nothing worthy of winning this. Previous prep only beat Kedleston home who has shown nothing since. Did run a nice race at course and distance though four back behind Aspect.
4. Indian Thunder: Listed winner in Adelaide to end last prep coming off a good 2nd in Bendigo. Blinkers on and Weir stable.
5. Clear Signal: Geelong synthetic winner. Others look much better suited.
6. Arrowroot: Trial winner by 10 lengths at Tatura. Has to be considered a chance from many of these today.
7. Frankel My Dear: 3kg claimer to take the horse to 51kg first up. Laing stable pleased about this Frankel colt. Double figure odds.
8. Sunquest: Two runs last prep fairly beaten on both attempts by Eshtiraak who is a nice type. Has to improve but not too much based on two back run.
9. Star Clipper: Maiden horse. Hard to suggest.
Comments: I’d have to sign with the McEvoy runner Azazel here in the opener while Sunquest has the late closing speed to run past all of these late.
Strategy: Back Azazel and Sunquest.
Flemington Race 2 – 1700m – New Season Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Average to Above Average tempo
1. Hell or Highwater: Went too slow out front last start into the wind and set it up for the swoopers. Can improve and run much better today and gets in okay at the weights with a claimer onboard.
2. Dulverton: Last start they set the race up for Dulverton by going slow to medium early and allowing the best 800m runner in the race to run them down. Hard to fault Dulverton on last two starts for 2 wins and stays in grade.
3. Domino Vitale: Two terrible runs heading into this prep but with a 3KG claimer going on and a step up in grade, she finds herself well in at the 1700m and should be improving today. Win wouldn’t shock.
4. Miss It and a Bit: Smart win last start at Sandown for us with Thornton on. Will be wanting the rain to come throughout the day to be considered. Has ability.
5. Florida Pearl: Not a bad run first up when fairly beaten behind Andrea Mantegna at Geelong in easier grade. Never measured up to this class in the past but will certainly run nicely.
6. Another Bullseye: Got the win (just) last start at Sandown when railing through. Huge jump in class but 52kg so has to be respected.
7. Whyyouask: Laurie runner that was a good run 5th in a nice grade of race last start. Can run well.
8. Mulinello: Sandown 2nd last start in the easier race but was a good run sticking on solidly from on speed. Need to improve to win.
9. Allelu: Couldn’t place the last start at Narrandera . Couldn’t be near.
Comments: Nice solid event where half the field have the ability to win. They have completely incorrectly written off Miss It and a Bit again. Will be setting a genuine clip out front and best runs in the past over in Tassy are actually good enough to win this and most importantly, this distance suits her so well.
Strategy: Miss It and a Bit – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.40
Flemington Race 3 – 1000m – Winter Lodge Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Average to Above Average tempo
1. Madeenaty: Proved to be a quality filly with a 3rd to Houtzen in the 3YO MM Classic before being run down at a short priced down the Flemington straight back to 1000m. Didn’t handle the ground in the Slipper. 57kg today after claims and clearly a group horse.
2. Chateau Griffo: Looked a talented type only run last prep when 3rd behind Tulip and Limestone at Caulfield when the run of the race due to the poor barrier and having to go back to 2L last. Respect here. Won’t find many better late closing sectionals from a 2YO run. Matured. Weighted to win.
3. Crown Witness: 2YO winner at Sandown last start when sat off the speed and pounced in the straight. Looked a nice progressive type that can improve onwards and run well here.
4. Prosecution: Maiden winner last start at Ballarat. Times were okay without being impressive. Has to improve but has some ability.
5. Something Violet: 7th at Sandown first up behind Crown Witness. Hard to suggest based on that run when led them around. Will set a nice tempo for the race.
6. As it Lies: Fairly beaten the last two starts but was a big improver last start in 2YF Handicap grade 3rd behind Crown Witness. Has to improve.
7. Maid to Measure: Trial winner last prep but ran an average 4th at Sandown in debut. Will need to have trained on.
8. Music of the Night: Unseen type. Happy to take on.
9. Watchmespin: Unseen type. Happy to take on.
10. Living Doll: Okay enough the last two starts. Have to consider others.
11. Dothraki Princess: Tassy horse now in Vic. Last two starts very poor. No thanks.
Comments: Madeenaty and Chateau Griffo are the obvious standouts. Both look very well in here and while Madeenaty looks a progressive type, I can’t help but love how Chateau Griffo maps into the wind and the sectionals run the first run last prep.
Strategy: Chateau Griffo – 3 units @ $3.50 to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 2000m – The Nursery Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Above Average to Fast tempo
1. Bondi Beach: Gelded! D Oliver on. Gone very well in the past first up. Best distances in the past have always been 2400m+, so I’m not too concerned at all about the 2000m today for this talented horse that last prep won in listed grade and then Group 3 grade with relative ease. Suited by Flemington and has hopefully settled in well now.
2. Killarney Kid: Eye-catching run last start at Flemington when far back off a slow tempo and coming off lameness issues. I don’t rate the form line at all but it was a return to what we know he can do at this class and level. Have to respect.
3. Extra Zero: Continues to run solid races without winning or getting close. Last two starts have not had any pace in the race and he was never going to finish off in them. Today, gets the ideal setup similar to four back with speed on throughout. Best chance of the past 3 runs this.
4. Second Bullet: Kept safe by the bookies today after the first up plunge win last prep by 4L over 1800m. Obviously goes well first up and has to be respected, but this is certainly a top level race and he will need to run at top ability first up to win.
5. Aloft: BM-90 winner to start last prep before running 2nd to Big Duke in the Chairmans. Being set this prep for the Melb Cup and has been kept lightly raced overall. First up last prep 3rd to Killarney Kid over 2040m. Obviously well suited.
6. Loresho: Shown nothing all prep and can’t see it.
7. Magic Consol: Been picking off some easy races in recent times but now the good horses are returning I feel they are aiming too high here. Has ability but hard to suggest.
8. Swacadelic: Needs further for very best.
9. First Course: Leader in the race and is expected to push the tempo early and middle stages. Expect to fall out of it late. Not up to this grade.
10. Lautaro: Echuca 3rd last start. Huge jump in grade. Couldn’t see placing.
11. Galaxy Raider: Every chance last start but outsprinted by a better horse in Dulverton on the day. Massive jump in grade and distance. Take on.
Comments: Can’t understand the price for Galaxy Raider up in this grade, a clear take on horse here. Magic Consol is expected to find one too good again with strong horses back in the race. Second Bullet ran a clear career peak first up last prep and the times run there would be more than good enough to win this so he has to be considered. Extra Zero brings some quality form into the race and is best when the speed is on late. I want to take on Killarney Kid against these horses at the prices today based on the slow tempo run last start up to this fast tempo race. Bondi Beach is the obvious blowout chance quality in the race while Aloft has recorded runs last prep more than good enough to beat these types home. At the end of the day, i’m happy to put 5 units on the table here on 3 runners and hope to get back 10 in return.
Strategy: Second Bullet – 2 units @ $5.00. Extra Zero – 1 unit @ $10.00. Aloft – 2.2 units @ $4.60
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – The Stayers Lounge Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Slow to Below average tempo
1. Beatniks: Ran home very well last start at Caulfield from out the back. First run down the straight. Horse has the ability and won’t be far off them today.
2. Inspector: Good win three back at course over 1400m but didn’t fire the next two starts. Goes well at 1200m and down the straight. Had a nice break and goes well first up. Well in at weights with the claim.
3. Play Master: Got the win last start just nosing out Kirani in a race run very slow early and was really an 800m sprint. Can run well again.
4. Smackdown: Decent enough run last start but fairly beaten behind Play Master and Kirani. Has to improve.
5. Red Alto: Best seen over further. Struggle to suggest here first up.
6. Lord Von Costa: Interesting type that was out sprinted last start but was still a nice run on the day at course over 1100m. Up to 1200m ideal but has to improve.
7. Nikitas: Good win two back at Caulfield and step back to 1200m not a total negative. Has a good closing 400m but best seen off a strong tempo out front.
8. Kirani: Strong run 2nd to Play Master and could turn the tables at the weights. Has to be considered again.
9. Hay Bale: Smashed a very good field last start at course over 1100m and up to 1200m no disadvantage. Continues to run very well and this is a step back in class. With 51kg, will be very hard to hold out late with the best late sprint in the race.
Comments: The Early money has been for a few runners that were over the odds including Beatniks, Play Master and Kirani but that has now given us a very good price on Hay Bale. The horse is so well suited today down in the weights up in distance off a slow tempo.. it’s a sit and sprint home and this horse has the best late sprint.
Strategy: Hay Bale – 6 units @ $3.80 to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 2500m – 1 Oliver St Plate
Expected Race Speed: Average tempo.
1. Survived: Mt Gambier Cup winner. Best runs clearly on wetter surfaces and also in easier grades which he has found with a BM-78. Goes okay first up and at distance.
2. Bullish Stock: I think we really just have to ignore last start where he just didn’t run up to his very best on the day in comparison to the previous start. Looking at the stats it may have just been due to the early speed in the race which doesn’t appear to be there today.
3. Azurite: Sandown BM-78 winner last start at big odds and looks a type that can continue to improve up in distance again today. Has to be respected staying in this grade of race. Barrier only issue.
4. Global Gentl: Bm-78 winner over 2100m last start beating some nice types including Yogi. Was a good ride on the day so the jockey change isn’t ideal for mine considering this is apprentice Zac Spain’s first ride ever at Flemington.
5. Xebec: Get back run on type that ran horrible last start. Wasn’t a bad run prior and may just be wanting the dryer track and extra distance? D Oliver takes the ride.
6. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate is now a 10YO. Three lead in runs have been horrid. He loves Flemington and dry surfaces but I just can’t see it.
7. Yogi: Simply asked too much of last start at Sandown when out the back and ran on hitting the line with a full head of steam. Change of jockey today… get back run on.
8. Chequered Flag: Won two in a row and looks to be a potential rising star for the Weir yard. Back in class here today and very much suited at the weights. Lane takes the ride and from barrier 2 will be either leading them around or just off the speed. 10 runs for 0 wins on a good track the only issue if it gets that on the day. Wants the rain to stick around.
9. Springbok Flyer: Waller runner that hasn’t placed in last 10 starts. No thanks.
11. Cismontane: On speed runner. Last two starts has gone well but last start beaten 4.7L by Chequered Flag.
12. El Luchador: Beaten 8L last start over 2100m a bit of an issue, but wasn’t too bad the run prior… still looks a step below these on form.
13. Kawabata: Bm-64 grade winner two back over 2100m but only fair last start over 2400m. Step up in grade the issue.
14. Jimivag: Hit the line solidly last start in what i’m calling easier grade 4th behind Kiawa. Alot to be asked here.
15. Duquessa: Adelaide raider that hasn’t been able to win in the past 10 runs and I can’t see it here at Flemington.
16. Benall: Hit the line well last start behind Kiwia but once again as said above I don’t rate that race form coming here and he needs to improve.
Comments: This is a horrible betting race. Yogi will get so far back I just can’t have at the price while Chequered Flag looks the one to back, but is short enough in the market and 0 wins from 10 runs on Good surfaces. Even so, the price is short but right.. while Azurite looks the one at odds worth backing with Bullish Stock.
Strategy: Chequered Flag to win. Small bets also on Azurite and Bullish Stock.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – Jockey Celebration Day Plate
Expected Race Speed: Average to Above Average tempo
1. Mr Gustavo: Finished off okay last start in harder class at Caulfield and step up in distance should be suitable. Big weight even with the claim and not exactly going to be an easy ride for Sweeney.
2. Kapset: Decent horse that won 5 back at Caulfield in harder grade. Goes well at this distance and likes a good to soft track. Last 4 runs though have been well below the horses best is the big issue. Big weight.
3. Don’t Get Excited: Huge run two back at Caulfield. Steps back up to 1600m and well back in class after running 6th behind Portman and Orient Line leading them around here last start. Has to be respected for mine.
4. Andrea Mantegna: French import. Won very well first up for the Weir stable over 1500m and can improve onwards again. Mapping an issue as expect to be back. Will only improve with further distance (best will be 2000m+)
5. Gold Fields: 1600m winner last start at Sandown in the similar grade of race. Looks well in here and can go well.
6. Spunlago: BM-70 winner two back beating Galaxy Raider before Sea the Sparkle got him last start at Sandown. Just simply got too far back off a slower than average tempo. Horse is flying.
7. Bajour: Horrible form lines and one I’ll simply take on here.
8. Dollar for Dollar: They went around too slow for him last start with the wind on the day. Maps to go forward again with a claim and expect more tempo on here for sure. Respect.
9. Bikila: 1 win in the past 10 races with no other places. Inconsistent type.
10. Giddyup: Going okay this prep but hasn’t been able to get a win in the past five runs. Has to improve.
12. Jaminzah: Very big run from off the speed last start at course and distance in 3YO Handicap grade and just found Lovani too good on the day. That was the run we expected the previous start and this horse looks to be peaking.
13. Rebellious Lord: Bolting last start over 1400m when ran into arses in the straight and should have gone to the line with Portman. Well back in class and up in distance. Very good type and very well in at weights.
14. Wayanka: Continues to run well without winning or going close. Was held up last start but not winning for mine. This is easier class and back to 1600m helps.
15. Praesentia: Couldn’t place the last two starts at Sandown. Up in grade and up in distance should help.
16. Vatiaz: Needs further and easier.
17. But It’s True: Weir runner. Four runs this prep always close or there abouts and ignore last start on heavy. Has to improve.
18. Spearhead: Good run 5th last start just not suited by the tempo. Can improve and run well again here.
Comments: Very open race with some very talented horses for a BM-70. Probably the best BM-70 grade race you will see this year. Spearhead is over the odds at $41s. Jaminzah did everything right last start and has to be considered. Dollar for Dollar will appreciate the tempo today while Andrea Mantegna could be anything (but I suspect wants further). Don’t Get Excited can run a huge race also on speed at $31s. Rebellious Lord is the horse to beat like Spunlago looks the real deal also.
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 12, 13, 18
Strategy: Rebellious Lord to win. Also back Spunlago.
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – John & Denise Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Below Average to Average tempo
1. Amralah: 2400m G2 winner last prep. Was horrible first up and took a few runs to come into the prep. Short of his very best distance and top weight.
2. Amovatio: Massive run from out the back last start off a hot tempo. Loves a hot tempo and finds best on that type of run. Not sure we will get the required speed today.
3. Foundation: UK Import. Found nothing only run last prep. Best seen over 2000m+ and struggle to see the required run to win first up.
4. Rhythm to Spare: Ran very well last start in the Winter Championship all things considered. Was completely off in the yard according to all the good judges unlike the previous start at MV and the winning day at Caulfield and really needed the 4 weeks between runs which we get here. Very well in and maps on speed. Most importantly, had a brutal lead in run before last start win and the same happens today.
5. Mihany: Out the back last start and never a chance. Previous runs beaten a long way but is expected to be on speed leading them around at a moderate tempo and has to be considered a chance.
6. Velox: Showed nothing first up in return run but can run well over this distance second up. Only a few weeks between runs a negative off that first up run.. Has come in off a 469 layoff remember. Need to see the run.
7. Ruling Dynasty: Sydney horse now with the Weir stable. Blinkers off and first up (never won first up in past). Last prep was overly disappointing and needs to find top form.
8. Leica Day: First up gone before the turn over 1400m and steps up to 1600m today. Best in the past has been 1800-2000m and clearly needs to improve on that first up run.
9. Moonovermanhattan: Not the worst last start over unsuitable 1400m and I think this horse needs 2000m to find his very best. Others preferred.
10. Hipparchus: Waller stayer. Good win three back at Flemington in BM90 grade. Decent type of horse but improvement needed 2nd up.
11. Show a Star: Still with Alexander after the incident last time here that saw the horse scratched. Best runs are off slow speeds out front and will be leading them around trying not set an overly strong tempo until the final 600m.
12. Magnapal: First up off 60+ days off. Best runs clearly been on wetter and hasn’t won in a very long time. Wants further.
13. Cosmic Lights: Well in at the weights and ran well 6th at Flemington last start. Has to be considered big time.
14. Hardern: Front runner that was fairly beaten at Caulfield last start. Has to improve.
Comments: Rhythm to Spare is a stand out (as always) for me here today. The speed isn’t expected to be brutal early but will be strong enough for tough strong finishing types. Rhythm to Spare maps for a dream run just off the speed and will have every possible. Short quaddie.
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 11, 14
Strategy: Rhythm to Spare – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.75
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – The Rails Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Above Average Tempo
1. Nozomi: Last win was back in the country Great Western Cup. Never placed first up or second up ever in the past. Never won at track. Top weight and tough ask.
2. Here to There: Continues to run well this prep in this grade of race. Just not convinced the Nesbo form line is holding up well and want to take it on here.
3. Mr Wonderful: Gelagotis horse that looked the goods last prep over further. First up run simply too short a distance. Much better suited second up here and can run well.
4. Divine Mr Artie: Very good run second up over the unsuitable 1200m which was a sit and sprint over 800m that just doesn’t suit a horse like him. 3kg claim here has him in well but the barrier is a nightmare as he will have to get back and storm home from way back.
5. Reincarnate: D Oliver onboard today is a handy addition for this Godolphin hopeful. Ran very well first up at Rosehill over 1200m and the step up to 1400m and back in grade today looks ideal. Respect.
6. Rich Luck: Won 3 of his last 4 and resumed this prep with a very good win at Geelong over 1200m beating some nice types that have proved the form to be solid. Up in grade and distance and well suited at the weights.
7. Patch Adams: Best runs in the past have been over much further than this. Didn’t go too bad first up but was still 2.5L behind Rich Luck. Others preferred.
8. Sly Romance: Last win was over 3000m. Not at this distance.
9. Majestic Duke: Bm-84 grade 4th last start behind Portman and a few others. Was a really good run from on speed I have to admit! Step up again here.. not sure I can see him finding the 3 lengths.. place chance.
10. Orient Line: Sit Sprint type. Has blazing final 200m sectionals that very few can test and needs to be held up perfectly. Got the run and went well 2nd last start behind Portman. Poor barrier makes it hard to see him overthrowing that 0.75L today.
11. Ozi Choice: Well backed last start down the straight but failed to fire as he is a 1400m horse. Up to 1400m today and gets the right tempo. Just feel he will be a run or two short because of the tempo run last start.
12. Portman: Smashed them last start at course and distance and up in weight today for that win.. but claim with a new jockey obviously helps. Very good barrier to get the gun run midfield. Has to be respected, but not an open closed case today.
13. Revolving Door: Moral beat last start and is the beneficiary of the cancelled meeting last week as he was never going to be suited IMO by the tempo. Gets a tempo that will suit perfectly here and maps nicely enough from the difficult barrier. Top class type and will measure up very well here.
14. Rezak: Went through the grades last prep but was found wanting over the 1600m in harder company beaten 5L by Portman. Best can measure up but was bad first up.
15. Municipality: Adelaide raider that has been winning in BM-75 grade. Two back run in BM-82 was good but only ran very well due to times run out front. Has to improve.
16. Electric Tribute: Two runs this prep beaten 2.4L and 5L. Much harder here and hard to suggest on those runs. Did win here last prep though over 1600m in BM-70 grade.
17. Sin to Win: Hayes stable import that won well finishing off last prep in 75 grade over in NZ. Gelded since and looks a likely type to be a spring type of contender.
Comments: Hardest race of the day. Divine Mr Artie, Rich Luck, Reincarnate, Portman, Revolving Door and Sin to Win all bring strong different form lines into the race and there is no way I can split them apart to have a bet here.
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 17
Strategy: Back Revolving Door and Sin to Win.
Flemington Race 10 – 2000m – The Domain Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Average tempo
1. All Out of Love: Suited today back to Flemington in what will be a normally run race. Will be out the back on the rail running on late.
2. Poetic Ray: Only ever run on Heavy tracks so unsure just how well he will measure up here. Good wins heading into this but clearly, 5 grades step up here.
3. Spanish Reef: Two wins in a row and suited by the track being a little wet today. Down in weight with a 3kg claim to 54kg and maps a little awkwardly and may get stuck 3-wide.
4. Windbern: Ran very well last start getting the win at Caulfield. Dunn back onboard and will do everything possible to win again. Awkward barrier today and every chance 3-wide the trip or have to work to lead.
5. Tan Tat Trusting: Strong maiden win last start at Sandown on a soft track and did it well. Step up again here though.
6. Kipe: 0-58 grade winner last start at Donald. Massive step up in grade but does have some ability.
7. Shadow Prince: Had his chances when led them around last start at Caulfield. Has the ability and can run well, but others preferred.
8. Dr Jameson: Maiden winner over 2000m last start at Mildura. Has to improve onwards and upwards to run well here.
9. Eureka Street: Out the back and ran on well last start at Caulfield. Has to improve onwards and upwards to win this today.
10. Seattle Park: Checked badly late in the race last start but for mine wasn’t going onto win it. Has to improve.
11. Penthouse Kitten: BM-58 grade winner on synthetic last start. Concussion plates on. No thanks.
12. Summer Glen: Huge run two back at Flemington when unlucky not to win held up for runs. Ignore last start at Sandown when led and did a lot of work. Can improve. 51kg today.
13. Ocean Magic: Fairly beaten the past few starts and looks outclassed here.
14. Presscott: Hugely unlucky last start at Caulfield and has been very well backed after opening $60 last week. Respect.
15. Von Richter: 4L Geelong winner on Synthetic last start. Can run well and improve again.
16. Appochier: Mildura maiden last start and couldn’t win. No thanks.
Comments: Not a race i’m overly keen to get involved in.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 12, 14, 15
Strategy: Summer Glen E/W