Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield. It will be hard to replicate last Saturday but let’s give it a try. The best bets look to be very solid this week, but it could all change if the rain comes. The New Boy has been within 0.2L of winning the last three starts and in what looks a much easier race, should be hard to run down. Avoid Lightning is a progressive type who comes out of a form race behind a very impressive horse and Tuscan Fire while up against it at the weights against Elusive King according to many punters, has improved significantly the last two runs and if given a slower run as expected, will be VERY hard to pass. As always we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 The New Boy
Next Best
Caulfield Race 4 Avoid Lightning
Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 Tuscan Fire
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Spending: Ran on very well at Flemington in a fast 56.6 over the 1000m this relation to Shopaholic and up 2kg today looks to be a very good thing. Should handle the extra 400m no troubles, all about positioning in run.
Royal Scandal: Pushing forward again today, has ability and keeps running well but may find a few of these too classy.
Bon Vacance: Huge step up in class winning a slowly run race last start.
Hai Lil: Not the worst form lines. Ignore the run on heavy and in with a chance today… but has to improve.
Nadeem Lass: Disappointing last start run at Caulfield and should appreciate the step up in distance and run closer to the pace today. Weighted nicely back in class.
Perfect Offering: Will be positioning far back today but has the ability to run on well and be in with a chance. Don’t dismiss.
Winta Chiller: Finally broke through last start in a simple maiden. Wasn’t bad at all previous run at Flemington and could surprise today.
Sagacious Flame: Not good enough on form lines.
Are There Any: Good win first up but was expected. This is MUCH harder.
Confidence 75%
Caulfield Race 2
Shamus Award: Two solid runs in first prep, will be pushing forward today and be suited by the track today. Has the ability to win this. Don’t discount with Boss on board.
The Yowie: Needs to find 2-3L today. Hard to have.
I Am Titanium: Ran well first up in a 5 horse race… but the times were poor. Has to find much more.
Bring Back: Hard to have off first run.
Feral Cowboy: Market only guide.
More Rewarding: Market only guide.
Present Glow: Market only guide.
Recycle Prince: Market only guide.
The Hummel: Market only guide.
Metastasio: Strong start to finish win first up. Weighted to win
Kona Breeze: Can’t see enough progression to win today.
Confidence 60%
Caulfield Race 3
Albrecht: Won first up last prep and also won a 3Y-GP3 with a second in GP2 and GP1 grade behind handy horses called Kabayan and Epaulette. Is the real deal and should progress this prep. The one to beat at weights.
Shoreham: Solid performer in 2YO class and this seems harder today. Last start at 2YO was a HUGE win at Flemington over the 1420m on a slow track. May be looking for wetter ground than today but a win wouldn’t shock.
Royal Haunt: Looks to be a progressive type not sure he is up to this class today.
Sheer Talent: Impressive 5th last start behind Lady of Harrods and will be hitting the line hard again today. Weighted well enough, don’t discount.
Hosting: Won a very slowly run race at Mornington very well. Has to find much more here today though as this is MUCH harder.
Force Command: Not good enough on last two preps form.
Calibrate: Well breed but not good enough on last start run.
Confidence 75%
Caulfield Race 4
First Command: Up 1.5kg today and gives Light Express 2kg today which looks to be the limit. Has the ability to win this, no doubt, but at the weights Light Express and Avoid Lightning look to have his measure.
Canali: Solid last prep and could return well today. Ran second in a Group 2 at course and similar distance last start but the form proved to be average after that. Win wouldn’t shock.
Cardinal Virtue: Been off a fair while returning today. Group 1 placed up in Sydney and has ability but big question marks. Won 1 from 18 in class. Market will guide.
Avoid Lightning: 1 from 1 first up and wasn’t helped by the Moonee Valley ground. Much better suited here today from barrier 5 with Williams on board and 54kg. Sumakaray who beat her is a VERY good horse and is going to be Group placed for sure. Avoid has everything in her favour. Top hope.
Eight Bills: Huge step up in class today but has the ability to test these. Don’t dismiss as is down 5.5kg.
Light Express: Ran on strongly last start and meets First Command 2kg better off today. Big issue is never placed at track from 3 starts.
Confidence 80%
Caulfield Race 5
Lucky Eighty Eight: Won 5 from 10 at this Distance. Ran on ‘well’ two back at Flemington but has never won at Caulfield. Looks up against it at 60kg
Buxted: Very average return first up at Flemington and is looking for further it seems.
Boom ‘N’ Zoom: Ran on well last start at Flemington but up 2.5kg today which seems to be safely held on that weight.
Tuscan Fire: Up 2kg today for a BIG start to finish win. Won well previous start as well and before that beaten 0.1L by Keep Cool who won VERY WELL for us last week at $8s as best bet. Form lines are sound. Won’t put on as stupid a pace today as three back and should be able to stay on even with Elusive King gaining around 6.5kg on him. The important thing to look for is Tuscan Fire smashed Kutchinsky by 2.5L the next start and the run after that Kutchinsky beat Elusive King by nearly a length.
Montgomery: Never won first or second up before but runs well at track. Maybe looking for further than this. Will be too far back you feel.
Elusive King: Weighted well today against Tuscan Fire but you have to wonder if he can win by going to the front. It didn’t work last time. Suspect he takes a sit. Will be there at the finish but just finds ways to lose.
White Universe: Putting in decent runs all four runs this prep but just keeps getting within 1.5-2L. On weights can’t have today.
Westsouthwest: Speced last start by the punters for no real reason at Flemington. Put in an average run at best and can’t see enough improvement to win today.
Scottish Border: Not the worst run last start at Moonee valley but is outclassed today even off a good weight..
Durnford: Progressive type but this does look a little too hard.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 4, 6
Caulfield Race 6
Zabisco: Impressive last start win but the quality of that field was average at best and set up for swoopers. Up 2kg today.
Gold Sand: Goes well at this distance and seems to be weighted nicely, but the question is if he has the quality to win this today. First up run at course suggests he can go close.
Future Solution: Strange to see him backing up this week after running a solid third behind Le Remas. Step up to 1600m should suit but will need luck to position well from barrier 4. Should find this MUCH easier today and go close.
Snow Cover: Meets Future Solution 1.5kg worse off today when lost to him 3 runs back by 0.8L and The New Boy 2kg worse off when beat him by 0.2L at course and distance. Hard to win off the form around those two.
Val Mondo: Hard to have on recent form.
Gail: Poor last start even though she did run on from the back. Hard to see her getting the win today.
Finishing Card: Three runs at track this prep for two wins in a third. Up in class today but down 3kg. Bossy will position him forward today and be in with a chance. Issue is has never won at class and only once from 8 at distance.
Laspiel: Not good enough on all four runs this prep.
The New Boy: HUGE run last start just getting run down by Lord of Brazil. Just keeps getting unlucky this prep with three seconds in a row by 0.2L or less. Weighted to win once again today and will be pushing forward.
Infinite Energy: Disappointing 3rd last start. Down 2.5kg but up in class. Loves the track and is in with a chance again.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 9, 11, 12
Caulfield Race 7
Bianmick: Just kept on improving last prep eventually winning a Group 3 at the valley with one of the best rides I say from Gauci all last year. Interestingly Bianmick is 2 from 4 at distance but has never won first up. Hard to have today but a win wouldn’t shock at all.
Shewan: Suited to a little further than this but has won before at course, distance and first up. Does need a super effort to win today.
Veewap: Doesn’t seem progressive enough this prep to break through here today. Needs a step back in class or weight relief.
Top Drop: Too poor first two runs this prep to back today.
Cosmic Causeway: Big run first up at Flemington when blocked for run. Down 0.5kg today and if gets in from barrier 14 can go VERY close. Never missed a place at the track.
ScaredyMac: Not good enough on form.
Bigelow: Been poor the last three starts and up in class even harder today.
Langridge Street: Huge win last start at Flemington. Should position forward again today and down 3kg today up in class. Has won 1 and placed 4 from 6 at distance. Simply overs today as Goldstone is a VERY good horse.
Auld Burns: Strong first up form lines but doesn’t look good enough for this today.
Population: Never won at track but never missed a place from 3 starts. Won once from 5 second up. Would have liked him to win first up in easier company to go on today but with 3kg claim is down to 51kg.. weighted to win.
Niconise: Never won at distance or at track. Does run well first up and weighted nicely but this does look a step up.
Dany The Fox: Big step up in class today but last start win was strong. Big chance today.
Tigeriffic: Not in this class and distance.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 6, 9, 11, 13
Caulfield Race 8
Mosse Diva: The type of horse that you only back in-play people. Missed start the last three runs (not shown on record three back but had to work hard to get the front which cost it the win). If jumps well, should be the favourite and will be hard to run down.
Terpsichore: Hard to see her winning today.
Danish Whiskey: Big run and win last start at Flemington. Down 3kg today should run well.
You Can Dance: Two starts for two wins at class this prep. Up in class big time again today but will go close.
Crimson Lady: Looking for further than this off previous prep runs but does have ability to run well at this distance. Have to think she is weighted SO WELL today off 52kg in this class.
Music Shop: Hard to see her progressing enough to win this today off last start run.
Pass The Post: Not good enough.
Spin the Bottle: Not good enough.
Motto’s Gem: Ignore last start run where sat too far back. Down to 54.5kg today and will run on well late. Barrier is an issue.
Folk Rock: Ignore last start when galloped on. Has the ability to win this but has to show a lot more than last start.
First Print: Not good enough.
Minnie Downs: Huge run last start. Love to see her position further forward today. 1kg worse off today against Danish.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 6, 7, 12, 14, 16
Rosehill Race 1
Market will guide you for this race but the two clear stand outs are Twilight Royale off two good runs in equal grade and also El Sasso who trialed well.
Confidence 65%
Rosehill Race 2
With Ninth Legion scratched, not keen on anything to win at all in this race.
NO PICK
Rosehill Race 3
Looks to be a race between the top two if you ignore Sherocksmyworld first up run. Has the ability to go close today. Royal Descent super form lines hard to go past.
Confidence 65%
Rosehill Race 4
Disciple keeps putting in solid runs. From barrier 2 will position forward and be hard to hold out. Art Thou Ready was impressive last start at Kembla and is one to watch while Burbero just keeps progressing up the ranks. Finally, Fedde has some interesting form lines that work out well.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 5
Said Com is the class runner and looks to be overs. Won 2 from 3 first up and off 56.5kg looks weighted to win. From barrier 5 will be hard to hold out.
Confidence 77%
Rosehill Race 6
Really thought Marden would be winning this but with the scratching, the second pick Sailor’s Farewell is a big chance.
Confidence 60%
Rosehill Race 7
The top two look the main threats. She’s Clean off 58.5kg looks to be the one to beat having won 2/2 at track and 3 from 4 at distance while Natch Catch was SUPER impressive last start at course and distance.
Confidence 75%
Rosehill Race 8
Another scratching with Better than Ready gone. Ichihara is the next best in this race but the confidence factor drops.
Confidence 70%
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