Horse Racing Form – Caulfield and Warwick Farm – Saturday 14 July 2012

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to the weekly write up. As always, we are expecting a slow track in Caulfield with this type of weather around but we will have a double check over our tips at 10am when we go over scratchings and account for the track conditions. Hopefully we can get through the day without much rain but looking at the BOM website, that doesn’t seem to be possible. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Warwick Farm Race 7 – Ebony Rock

Bet E/W
Caulfield Race 6 – Second Effort

Bet Value Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Mr Griswold

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
Bonaria is a quality filly with good form lines. Ignore last up run where she had a Vet Exam after the race. Before that finished 0.3L behind Lady Melksham who is proven in this class and Manhattan Maid & Vain Attraction in the two races previous to that also by 1L and 0.5L. Claim of 3kg is very ahndy and will be suited from barrier 6 on this track. No issues with track conditions.
Interesting form behind Westchester. This is a big up in class but the horse is 1 win 1 place first up from 2, 2 wins 1 place from 3 starts at distance but 0 wins 0 places from 2 at the track. The last run over 1400 in 1:22.8 from the back was massive and you can’t discount her here. Suspect they will take her forwardish from barrier 2.
Good win last up by Glenmaura but this is a step up in class and i’m very suss about the $3.50 favourite. Will try and lead this race up and win from start to finish. Times were strong last up but suspect something with a better run will pass her in the straight.
Big 0.5L run behind Platelet last start for Pixie Eyes but up 3.5kg and rest of form is fairly iffy, can’t see her winning this.
Confidence: 75%

Caulfield Race 2
(SCRATCHED)General Rippa came with a massive win first up at Caulfield but was outclassed the next start. Expect him to handle the ground but 59kg does look tough from the back.
Rusambo put together some good runs before running up against quality fields the last two runs. Looks suited to 1000m more than 1200m. Could return much fitter and win this still.
White House is an interesting runner. Step up in grade but ran a strong time over 1100 and could step up nicely.
Newitt doesn’t hop on a horse with no hope so Proper Madam may be suited here today. 54kg is nice and was blocked for run last start so could find best with a good ride.
Of the first starters, it is hard to place Nadeem Lass. Has a sister who didn’t win until 3 and hasn’t won more than the prize money on offer for first in this race.
Royal Scandal has a horse called Red Colossus in the family (400k prize money). Problem is that Red is a 1400+ horse so breeding suggests might be looking for longer even after a good trial win.
Finally we look at the other Moody first starter in Grand Daughter. decent trial form behind Lamingtons with Nolen booked on board. 3YR old brother named Hus der Lieften who hasn’t raised for 727 days (unsure why) won over $200,000 in it’s time which included a 2nd to Woorim two back. This tells us the horse has the potential and Moody putting Nolen on board tells us he believes it will run a game race.
Confidence: 75%

Caulfield Race 3
After a huge win last start by 4L, Genuine Spin will be very hard to hold out today. Up 2.5kg but with Nolen onboard now, Ground will suit and only issue is barrier 11.
Turner Bayou has a hard task turning around his form here. Gains 3kg on Genuine Spin but isn’t enough to reverse 4.5L.
Elldami is a very interesting runner. Meets Turner Bayou 2kg better off and has been running very well. May be more suited by the shorter Caulfield straight. Expect her to go forward.
Moscow Pearl is one to watch. Wasn’t the worst run last start 4th at Flemington 4.5L behind the winner who got in very well. After the claim she is DOWN 4.5kg in this race. Has previous ran well over longer distances and does look suited here.
Confidence: 60%

Caulfield Race 4
Let’s start at the top. Royal Mail is 1 win 2 places from 4 at the track. 3 wins 3 places from 7 at the distance and 2 wins 3 places from 5 at the class. Has never won on anything apart from Good tracks but has still gone very close on Dead/Slow/Heavy with 5 places from 8 on these grounds. Simply ignore the last start where he went into a race too short (1600) and is back up to 2000m. Has a 2 win 1 place 2nd up record.
Sister Norma is an interesting runner here. Last run was fairly poor with no weight on her back over 1800m (2nd but lost by 8L). Up to 56.5kg, she has only ever placed once from 4 starts at Caulfield. 2 wins 2 places from 8 at distance is a good rating but has never won from 5 starts on slow tracks. She has her chances but prefer to be on something else.
StoneBlack drops back down in class here. 2 wins from 40 starts at this class is a slight concern but does have 13 places. Has 4 wins 5 places from 16 at distance which is a better stat and may have been building up to this run. 58kg is a concern but should run a solid race.
Manila Jewel has been underwhelming the last two starts and doesn’t get many favours up in class off 55kg. Does have the ability to go well here and prefers Caulfield over Flemington. Don’t discount but can’t have on top.
I have no idea how to place Shiny Buttons. Has been winning in the country against some pretty decent horses and comes into this off 55kg. The last up run times were solid and will test these horses. Has won 3 of 4 at distance and 1 from 1 at class. Won very well two back on heavy.
Epingle steps up here but drops down 3kg. Never won at distance but has placed 3 from 3. Has also never won from 2 starts at this class or at this track from 1 start… but has placed. She has the ability having been within 1.8L the last 3 starts but doesn’t seem to be the best here.
(SCRATCED)Storm Burst is a horse on the up. Beat Epingle by 1.8L last start and is down 2.5kg (meets epingle 0.5Kg worse off). Won at class, distance and placed in msot runs also. Has won here before and won on slow and dead tracks. Last 5 runs been no further than 1.8L off including the last up win. Big chance.
Confidence: 70%

Caulfield Race 5
Miss Bindi has but in some solid runs the last two starts but has been fairly disappointing after a big win three runs back on this course. Up 3kg from that win, this looks very challenging.
Queen Delight is a quality filly so ignore her first up run where a Vet Exam was needed. Down in class and off 55kg seems suited here. Expect her to go forward from barrier 4 and run this race out.
While Show Up doesn’t pop out at you, she has won twice and placed once first up and has won 5 times at the distance. Times are fairly ok and ran well two back here at Caulfield. Newitt on board makes you think they are keen on this horse after five months of training.
JohannaPine has come up against some tough fields this prep and was unlucky not to win last start. From barrier 2 with a good weight on her back, she is right in this race and you are getting a nice price for her. Will go very close so don’t discount this time.
Serene Star is up 5kg from her win over Johannapine and looks to be handicapped out of this even with Nolen on board.
Zeftabaa has some nice form lines and has won at track previously. Never won first up or at class but is right in this on form.
Confidence: 80%

Caulfield Race 6
Green Birdie is a horse a number of people have asked me about. He hasn’t had a run for over 6 months and this is actually a step up in grade and weight. I just can’t see him being too good for everything here and want to just ignore him. Interestingly though, has 1 win 2p laces at the track but 8 starts 0 wins at this class.
(SCRATCHED)Eagle Falls has been very disappointing in every race since his great win first up at $30s where we tipped him. He is 0 wins 1 place from 5 in a class this hard but has a great 3 win 1 place first up record. 58.5kg seems fair and 2 wins at the track including the win last start means you can’t discount him here. Look for a bold run.
A big step up in class for Second Effort but the form lines are fairly strong on his runs. Has won 8 from 18 at this distance but only 1 from 4 at the track. That one win was the last run here so that works out well. Has ran 4 times on slow and won 4 times… 2 runs on heavy and 2 wins… so if we get a very wet track… you know who to look for.
Alpha Proxima was outfoxed last start by Broken. Alpha is in top form and could really test these on a track and distance that suits.
Hot Spin has won 3 placed 3 from 6 at track. Has never won first up but always placed and has only ever won on a wet track (dead). Never been tested on Heavy/Slow. 58kg looks fairly harsh but will go close if at best.
Zamorar loves to set a fast pace and is a big fan of the Caulfield track with a 0.1L win and 0.2L loss on slow tracks here recently. Weight is fair but barrier 13 is an issue. Will be there at the finish no doubt but others look stronger.
Mister Milton is better suited to a 1400 distance it seems but has won previous at course and distance.
Rue Maple is back down to a more winable weight and will be closer to the front than last start. One of the chances.
Tariana meets Rue maple 5.5kg worse off today. This should reverse the form and we don’t expect Tariana to improve enough to win this off the weight.
Platelet is down to 56kg and loves this track and distance. Won 4 placed 6 from 11 at distance and won 2 placed 2 at track. Big chance.
Finally Le Societe. Was a big win last start but this is a huge jump up in class. She doesn’t deserve the price and i’d be happy to take her on here.
Confidence: 65%

Caulfield Race 7
One of the hard races to choose today.
Cash Bound is the top weight with 60kg onboard and this looks a tough mark. Stats suggest he will struggle to handle the 1400m with this weight.
Look ‘N’ Run has some great form lines. Ignore run two back and refer to last start and three back starts. 56kg after claim is fair and could find best from start to finish here.
Nolen looked on Harmonic is interesting. Not thee best starts but has been competing well recently. Don’t Discount.
Confidence: 65%

Caulfield Race 8
Let’s start with Mr Griswold. Ignore first up run over 100m, this horse is a 1400m horse having won 5 of 11 starts over distance and is 1 win 1 place from 3 at Caulfield. Enjoys any type of ground so won’t be put off here either. 58kg seems fair and will get a good run from barrier 7. If produces similar form to last prep this run out, will be the one to beat.
Cellarmaster has tried 7 times at Caulfield but only placed once. Off 54.5kg still looks a hard task. Will go well.
Let’s Be Happy hasn’t come back very well this prep. Interestingly finally finds 0 weight on her back with 53kg (58kg last start after claims). Will run better here today but can’t see her winning.
Interesting form lines for Prince of Capers that may work out well. Nolen on board but weight seemsa little harsh up in class big time.
Lakedro has always threated to win a decent race and is 3 places from 5 at Caulfield, 3 places from 6 at distance and 6 places from 14 at class. 3 places from 5 first up. 55kg is very fair for this horse and should put in a quality ride.
Disquiet comes over from Adelaide and starts off 54kg which is very fair. Has great wet track form and also form in this class of race. If produces run of two back can test these.
Luckyimbarefoot can’t be ignored also after three good runs this start. Never won this class and never placed in it. Also never won at the track so not sure on what to think.
Finally, Secret Stealth ran well last up but this looks a harder task.
Confidence: 75%

Warwick Farm Race 4
Urban Explorer impressed last up at Caulfield. This is a very hard race with Peck and Sour Mash but quality horses but Urban Explorer is handicapped nicely coming into this race and is going the right way. Up!
Confidence: 70%

Warwick Farm Race 6
A tough race but the form horse coming into this race is King Lionheart. Has won 4 from 6 at this distance and has 2 wins from 4 first up. Rawiller booked for a reason on this gelding and expect him to run well.
Confidence: 65%

Warwick Farm Race 7
Forgive Ebony Rock for the second last start where Forty Thirty was given an easy ride up front and was able to shoot away before the turn. Ebony Rock will be better for the run and more suited back down in this company off a very good weight.
Confidence: 80%

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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