Welcome to the weekly write up. As always we have added a confidence factor to our write ups. A very hard line up this week and as you can see we have gone deeper into every race as there are so many runners with ‘chances’. We will have a double check over our tips at 10am when we go over scratchings and account for the track conditions. Good luck and happy punting!
Look below each of the races to see a race review and results
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Prince Obama
Bet E/W
Warwick Farm Race 6 –
Bet Value Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Collar
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Yulalona is up in weight to 60kg after two poor runs recently. Has never won at this track but has a 1 win 1 place at distance. On form can’t be on him.
Cosmic Causeway comes into this race really well. 1 win 1 place on track and if you look to runs 3 and 4 back beat who horses who have won their last up in Banca Mo and Prince of Capers. Has settled a little too far back the last two starts and down 1kg should be taken a little further forward from barrier 2 and be given a great ride.
Stoneblack ran quite well last up and comes up in class here down 1kg. Previous runs were fairly average and you have to put last run down to the poor race even though he had been treahtening four runs back. Don’t discount but can’t have him on top. Has never won at Caulfield in 12 runs.
Volando is an interesting runner. Runs well at Caulfield with 1 win 2 places from 5 starts and doesn’t run any good on anything apart from slow or heavy. Won well by 3L last start in a much easier race but with Nolen on board should be given a solid ride.
Rowland… is a horse that needs a spell but just keeps putting in good runs every so often. Never won at this class from 19 tries but 51kg after claim does help his chances. Would need to improve head and shoulders.
Confidence: 70%
Result: 2nd. Took the rails run around the corner and got blocked for a run about 4-5 times. Finally got out but every horse needs 200-300m to get a good speed in and was just very unlucky. Will win next start!
Caulfield Race 2
General Rippa starting first run this prep is the most interesting runner here. Won well first up last start in a harder race and failed in a much harder race. Comes into this off 56kg and looks very well suited at the price. That first up win was here over 100m more. Small field will suit.
The Travelling Man is in the same boat as Rippa. Ran well 2nd up winning a good race from start to finish and then failed in the same GP1 race. Not enough info to speedmap this race and you would hope he went forward.
Planet Voyage ran a huge race last up losing by 0.1L in a very fast time on a Heavy ground. Was beaten by General Rippa four runs back but has improved the last two runs.
Of the first starters General Peekay from the Price yard looked really good in trials and should run on well here.
Zahee with Newitt booked sticks out. Big step up in class here but should go very well.
Confidence: 65%
Result: General Rippa Unplaced and Planet Voyage 1st. Planet Voyage given the dream run and got an easy ride and just had too much at the line. General Rippa looked to be off today.
Caulfield Race 3
Mazeeza is a Moody trained horse and they have opted for the 2kg claim of Duffy on board instead of Nolen. This in itself is interesting. When you look at the times of this horse, it has won two very slowly run races. Certainly has some potential but not sure if it is good enough to win here.
Dance Card has been threatening to break a race open and almost did that last start falling painfully short. Down in class but up 2.5kg, looks about the right weight here.
Lamingtons produced a good run last up on course and is up in class but down 2.5kg. Has placed 2 times out of 6 starts at class and only every won one race (it’s maiden). Has been going ok but not sure if produces just another ‘good run’.
Not sure how to place Gideon’s Girl. Surely can’t win this on trial form.
The most interesting runner of this race is The Darling One. A Lohnro Filly who showed a little first up. The problem with the breeding is that her other two full relatives have produced nothing. If you were to back her, it would be a pure gamble or inside knowledge helping you.
Bloomingdale Miss put in a very solid run 0.2L second in a Maiden first up in a very fast time for a Heavy track. The winner Fandom then went onto Mornington and won earlier this week so the form holds up. Looks to be well suited here.
Putting Nolen on Convene means that Moody has high hopes for this horse. Expect a bold showing.
Kid Gloves is interesting but can’t really have it. Ran a bold 3rd behind Lamingtons first run every and Fastnet rock breeding. Weighted too toughly here I feel.
Finally we look at Princeton Miss. Get the feeling the Cranbourne race behind Fandom has real meaning and this horse could also produce something special with Nikolic on board.
Confidence: 70%
Result: Bloomingdale Miss 1st, Dance Card and Priceton Miss unplaced. Simply a quality run by Bloomingdale. Did a lot of work but still had the heart to win. Dance Card and Priceton didn’t run well at all. Did too much too early.
Caulfield Race 4
Turner Bayou is too heavy to win this.
Min River put in an amazing run last start. If reproduces wins this even though up 4.5kg. Question is the extra 400m off such a large weight.
Prince of Glory has been running well in much lesser company recently and this is a big step up. Has the ability.
Rich Faith won a much easier race two back and ran a solid 0.2L second last start. Down 3kg from that run but heavily up in grade.. may struggle to watch them in this class.
Havelock Express is in the same boat as Rich Faith. Down 3kg but this is a very hard race for it. Happier to be elsewhere.
Confidence: 65%
Result: Min River 2nd. Weight was telling in the final 200m and it seems we were wrong as Turner Bayou held the 60kg today on the ground. The turn around in weight was enough for Turner. Turner was very impressive it has to be said. Min River did stay on well.
Caulfield Race 5
Collar is a very very interesting runner here. Last win was over distance in a harder race. Is 1 win 1 place from 4 at class and 2 wins from 4 at distance. Has won first up also which is a bonus and is 1 win from 1 start on slow. Starting off 57kg, that is 0.5kg less than his fun in a 3Y-GP2! This is a huge step down in class when you consider winners of his last three races were Pied a Terre, Sangster and Manawanui who he finished 2nd to. A big chance at a big price.
Cash Bound has been eating the money of punters recently and you couldn’t put your trust in him here.
Prince Pedro has been winning some ok races at country meets and this is certainly a step up. He looks hardly treated in the weights here but should run well with 3 wins from 5 at distance.
Randall is a super interesting runner. Hasn’t produced anything he showed in NZ. In my opinion, that is because of how they have run him.. closer to the back of the field. You look to his 2nd in a 3YGP1 where he sat 3rd the whole trip in a 16 horse field (from barrier 16!!!). He has won 2 and placed 1 time over this distance. Nolen booked on board they obviously give this guy a chance and from the barrier if taken forwarder than normal can run well into this.
Cavallo Nero has been producing solid runs recently but the form behind the last two winners who beat it hasn’t held up in the next two runs. There is a question on the horse with 1 place from 4 at start and 0 wins 0 places from 2 at distance. Expect him to put down a good run regardless.
Komodo looks outclassed here but 2 wins 2 places from 5 at 1400 isn’t to be ignored. Likes the track and will run on well but should find a few too good for it. Positive is down 2.5kg from last start.
Loot N Run hasn’t handled this class of race recently and off this weight should find this a little too hard once again.
Confidence: 65%
Result: Collar and Randall Unplaced. Not sure what they were thinking on Collar. This horse is one who SHOULD be leading and he went back in the race. Very annoying. Will mean a better price next race at least. Both didn’t show much in the race and the top two did show a lot and should be watched closely for their next runs.
Caulfield Race 6
Let’s start with the first runner in Green Birdie. Hasn’t won a race for over two years, didn’t show ENOUGh to warrant favourtism here for me and yet comes in well backed into $3. Very very strange. This looks to be the best lay of the day to us. This horse looks more suited to a longer straight like the one at Flemington. Has never won at this class from 9 starts.
Eagle Falls (SCRATCHED – as expected) can never be discounted. Ran on fairly well last start and last win was here at Caulfield over 1100m. Has never ran on slow of heavy so get the feeling may be scratched but would certainly include in quaddie etc if does run!
Stanzout isn’t the worst in this race. Does enjoy a wet track and could run ok here.
No idea what to make of Mr Chard coming into this race. Never won over 1200 and seems that 1600 is the best weight for this horse. Look elsewhere.
Ready to Rip hung on for the win JUST last start and up in class up 2.5kg is a very tough. Certainly wasn’t 100% flattering but got the job done. Will certainly go close here with Nolen on board.
Offenders has some very cool stats. 1 win 6 places from 7 first up runs. Hasn’t run for nearly 8 months now and could have trained on very well. Does enjoy 1200m and will sit midfield in this race. Get the feeling will run very well here.
Dusty Star looks outclassed here.
Off the last run from Hot Spin, can’t recommend here.
Zamorar keeps putting in big runs. Jumped badly and had to come from the back and also twisted a shoe yet ran on for 3rd by 1.5L. This was a big run last start and from barrier 3 will run even better. The one to beat.
Mister Milton will find one too good for it as always.
Royal Bender put down a huge run 0.1L behind Platelet and can be considered value. I think this line up is a little harder for Bender and barrier 1 certainly won’t treat her well here. 5 runs and never won at Caulfield but is certainly going the right direction.
Confidence: 70%
Result: Zamorar 2nd. Offenders Unplaced. Zamorar as expected put in a run up front and was all quality but just didn’t have enough to hold off Ready To Rip. As we wrote up, Green Birdie was a BIG lay for that race. Stupid price put up.
Caulfield Race 7
Manhattan Maid was very disappointing last up and in a similar class is up 3kg for finishing 7th. Back to 1400m looks more suited than the 1600. May run quite well but very hard task off this weight.
Babel is stepping up in class once again. Has ran at this class three times but never placed. Is 2 wins 1 place from 3 at this distance which is interesting but seems to be only winning lesser company races.
Bonaria is the horse in this race we are keen to follow. Won very well for us last start at $9s and comes into this claiming 3 down to 52kg. One win one place at Caulfield in past and should be suited be step up in distance which is the only concern. Big chance.
Gracie Louise has some good runs under her the last three times out but this is a massive step up in class.. Times have been fairly average so can’t have her.
Reigning Lass has some BIG form lines. Down to 53kg here, she ran 2nd to Platelet by 1.3L last start after missing the start slightly. Ran in front of Bonaria by 0.2L last time they met and were competative on a Heavy track. Reigning Lass comes into this 3kg better off against her. Will go very close.
Spanski is another coming into this with nice form lines behind Platelet. Is the worst handicapped of the lot it seems. Others more enticing but she will run well.
Confidence: 80%
Result: Reigning Lass Unplaced. Bonaria Won. Put Bonaria up as best early mail runner early this week and she didn’t disappoint. The disappointment on the day was that we put her as 2nd in the race behind Reigning Lass who simply went too hard and didn’t stay. Bonaria on the low weight was just way too good as expected winning by 3L.
Caulfield Race 8
Avienus ran on ok last up in a distance that obviously didn’t suit. 1400 isn’t the worst distance for her with 2 wins 3 places from 10 and 3 places from 6 second up. 2 wins 1 place from 6 on heavy/slow and 57kg in this class is acceptable. Has won at track previously. Would I say she will win? I couldn’t.. but If i wanted to go long this leg in the Quaddie, worth adding in.
Verdasco won well two back and ran on well last start as well but couldn’t produce enough. Up another 1kg here looks a little harsh.
Prince Obama comes into this race well weighted. Meets Verdasco 2kg better off than last time they met and then last run ran better. What looks good for Obama here is the extra 200m. He looks to be needing that extra meterage. Was unlucky not to win last start and we hope he can go one better today for us as we have missed out on landing him in at $60s and $10s the last two runs by 0.2L and 0.4L.
Club Command back down to 1400m where he belongs and 54kg is well suited. Was always a tough task last start at 60kg and something ran out of it’s skin. He will run very well here and be incredibly hard to beat.
Luckyimbarefoot and Giresun are both in the same boat for me. Both have proved a lot this prep and ran very well. Both will handle the ground and both not changed. The only difference is both have changed their riders and I would opt for Dunn over Symons.
Confidence: 80%
Result: Prince Obama 3rd. Club Command 1st. Avienus Unplaced. Club Command was hugely impressive. We didn’t lose the faith and had it 2nd in the race behind Prince Obama who ran well but was way off the pace. At least he got the place for us. Guru Bob is the one to take out of this race with a MASSIVE run at huge odds.
Warwick Farm Race 1
A fairly hard race but we get the feeling that Flying Zero can’t reverse the form on both the toppies here.
The two class runners in this race are Australian Star and Havana Rey. Both have been kind to us recently and both have been putting down big runs.
When it comes down to it, we have to ask which horse will produce a better run for us and that is Havana Rey who has a much better record over 1600 and is 2 wins from 2 at the track. Australian Star is certainly a saver bet though!
Confidence: 80%
Result: Havana Rey 1st and Australian Star Unplaced. Havana Rey ran the race at a very fast pace and got clear early and was never going to be chased down with the lead they gave him. Easy win and good value.
Warwick Farm Race 3
She’s A Fox is a horse with BIG potential. She has had three months to train on after a good first up prep and is well weighted here up 0.5kg. Very good price today for her.
Confidence: 75%
Result: She’s a Fox 1st. WOW. We expected her to romp this in but not by 5L! 4 wide on the turn and simply too good. Big future this horse.
Warwick Farm Race 6
Forty Thirty ran a solid second last start and should be suited by a shorter straight today much like his run three back at Caulfield. There are a few other chances in this race but he is massive value here.
Confidence: 80%
Result: Forty Thirty 2nd. Found one just too good once again. Had as our best E/W of the day and you got paid for the place. Should have had the win but geez we are due with this horse. Keep the faith at least we keep getting money back with place money. Winning Glory racing a long side on the pace didn’t help the ride IMO.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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