Welcome to The Profits Saturday racing preview for Caulfield and Warwick Farm. Last night at Money Valley will be hard to repeat with a decent Quaddie landed and all 3 best bets landing. The fields are really trappy today so we are advising extreme caution on how you bet today. The first few races should give us a nice preview on how the rail being out 6M will play for back markers. This will ultimately seal the fate of All Too Hard in the Orr. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 9 Loveyamadly
Next Best
Race 2 Sumakaray
Best Value
Race 5 Shanghai Warrior
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Whisper Downs: A horse that just keeps on improving. In equal class today off equal weights. Ran on VERY WELL last start when you consider he sat near the back of the field and the race was ran in a slow time. Better suited by a fast tempo and should find a tempo to suit today.
Dayita: One run for one win at the distance and is 1 win 1 place at the track. Ran very well last start and can improve on that run again if produces best.
Flashy Fella: Up to 2000m today which he won at last start at course and distance. Was a very good run from mid to back in field last start at Moonee Valley behind Quick Shakes who we rate. Up in class today but will run well.
Red Eye Special: Had every chance first up and was just poor. Hard to see him improving enough today.
Zlatan: Progressive type and has won 2 from 3 at distance previously including 1 win at this class. Weighted nicely today off 54.5kg but this does look a step up on what he is normally used to.
Backbone: Disappointing last start but seemed to be weighted out of it. Down to 55.5kg today suits and if produces form close to previous runs, has the ability to win.
Diamonds At Noon: Hasn’t shown enough form to suggest can win today even off 51kg.
Word Gets Around: Word does get around and this form coming down from Sydney could be a big of value. Looks progressive.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: A tricky race to start the day. There looks to be some genuine tempo in the race, but it looks to be up to which of the favourites gets the best position with most of them being mid to back markers. We have Flashy Fella getting the best run of the race while Whisper Downs won’t be far off. Going against Dayita here today who has horrible form on a Good track and Backbone is the main threat to our two, but that loss last start doesn’t match up well here. If betting this race start out small.
Caulfield Race 2
Darlington Abbey: Over from Western Australia second up this prep. Lost an easier race that this first up and is up in class today up 1kg. Was a very strong run the previous two runs at 1600m. Suggest she needs further than this even with her good record.
Members Joy: 0 wins 1 place at the track. Lay horse at Caulfield, Back at Flemington. Up in class again today and up 3.5kg. Hard to have.
Sumakaray: Great win last start at the Valley and up in class today. I would suggest that Avoid Lightning would be winning this race today so she does look suited. Only issue is the weight. Needs to be careful not to get caught on the rails too far back.
Angelic Light: 3 starts for 3 wins at distance but last two starts of last prep were average when had every chance. Looks to be a horse who prefers a dead track. Never won on Good from 3 starts.
Summer Gem: Just keeps running well. Up against it today at the weights up in class today.
Meliora: Goes well at the distance but this is a step up again. Hard to see her being this progressive.
Balaclava Lady: Showed a fair bit of class last prep but this is a big step up today on previous runs. Could run well.
Octavia: Unlucky at course and distance last start not to win when run down late. 1.5kg better off today against Summer Gem should get her ahead of Summer.
Legcut: Improved significantly this prep running a close 5th first up and then 3rd last start. Up in class again today, will run well, but needs to improve again.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: One of the hardest races of the day, but Sumakaray is a stand out on form lines. Going hard with a saver around Octavia.
Caulfield Race 3
Marseille Roulette: Talented runner who won a very classy race up in Sydney. Down 1.5kg today and will be going forward again and be hard to pass.
Direct Charge: Had every chance with the run to beat Marseille Roulette last start. Meets 0.5kg worse off so hard to have today.
Kuroshio: Good run last start when just run down late. Meets Dissident 2.5kg better off today which should be the difference. Big hope.
Dissident: Big first up win but looks up against it at the weights today. Needs to improve again.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Good first up run but needs to find 2 lengths.
Harvard Graduate: Not good enough.
The Bowler: Fairly good breeding and has been well backed. A big unknown where they will race from barrier 1. Could get stuck in a bad spot. Happy to be around the horse.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Happy to avoid Dissident today on weights and The Bowler is the big unknown factor. At the prices, we are happy to back Kuroshio hard with a small saver or win bet on Marseille Roulette which looks to be the other chance.
Caulfield Race 4
Guelph: Very talented filly with endless potential. Will be getting far back which is the big issue.
Montsegur: While it is hard to form a speed map, Montsegur will lead this up and be hard to chase down off the first up run form.
Quest for Peace: Couldn’t back her on first up run but should have trained on.
Blue Palace: A fair amount of spec around for this horse. Should run a solid race.
Drifting Cube: Doesn’t look good enough off first run.
Godiva Rock: Family with no real form lines. Market your only guide.
La Ballerine: Interesting breeding lines. Market your only guide. If is backed in, could be value.
More Than Ameira: Family has some ‘ok breeding’ Market to guide you.
Confidence: 65%
Strategy: Montsegur to place may be the smart bet in this race. I would need around $6.50 to back Montsegur in the win market.
Caulfield Race 5
Adebisi: Up 2.5kg today which could be the difference. From barrier 3 should be able to push forward and lead up the race. Big issue is if he will be able to hold out the others finishing strong late.
Outlandish Lad: Strong run last start at the Valley and down in class today down 1.5kg. Needs a lot of luck in running today but has the ability.
Shanghai Warrior: Ignore previous two starts last prep and look to before that. Off that form, should be close to favourite here today. Will position more forward than last two starts when in harder company than this and be hitting the line hard.
Diplomatic Force: Suited by the tempo three back and been poor since. Hard to have on last two starts.
Rescue Mission: Keeps putting in strong runs and got the win last start. Speed maps really well today and only question will be if he gets out or not from the rails. 0 wins from 9 starts at class is a negative.
Mister Milton: Never won first up and never won from 13 starts at Class. There is some wraps around for him but hard to have today. Only ever placed twice at track from 9 starts.
Big Buddie: Love the horse but up 1.5kg today hard to see him winning here. Never placed at the track.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Happy to work around a few runners here and go with the speculation bet on Shanghai Warrior who should be winning on previous form lines. Adebisi is the horse to run down and the rail is positioned well for front runners today.
Caulfield Race 6
Fiveandahalfstar: Progressive type but needs further than this. Never won from 3 starts at distance and weighted poorly.
Super Cool: Has won first up and at distance. Looks to be wanting further also.
Hvasstan: Ran well last prep and could have trained on well enough to go close here. Distance doesn’t seem to be much of an issue.
Haussman: Keeps running solid races but speed maps poorly from an inside barrier.
Red Inca: Big win last start and went close previous run. Up in class today and will find it hard to win this from the back.
Mulaazem: Good win last start but this is MUCH classier. Looks unders.
No Smoken: Doesn’t seem good enough.
Knoydart: What you call an ‘unlucky horse’. Seems to have all the ability in the world but does look awfully short here today. May sit closer today.
Eye The World: Ignore run last start when galloped on. Should run much better today.
High Shot: Good win first up but this is a big step up in class. May have the ability to go close today as long as jumps well (still has the ability if misses start).
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Not sure what to make of this race. Looks to be a race to skip.
Caulfield Race 7
King Mufhasa: WFA specalist and just keeps producing solid runs. Suspect he is better suited by 1400m today than 1600m runs and loves the Good track condition. The main danger of the favourite.
Wall Street: Lost a plate last start behind Mr Moet. Can run a solid race again but others do look stronger. Never placed at track from 3 starts.
Mr Moet: Solid form lines and won at 1600m. Suspect a little up against it at the weights today vs these champions.
Pinwheel: Poorly ridden last start. Won 2 from 10 at distance and is more suited by 1200m. Still, will run very well.
Mawingo: Quality horse suited by further than this distance. Could surprise and run well though.
Callanish: 2 starts 2 wins at distance. Up in class today and undefeated. Looks a lot harder than normal today but will run well.
Le Remas: Super impressive first two runs this prep and could sneak a place today at huge odds.
Dance With Her: Has the ability to sit and sprint here. Weighted nicely and place wouldn’t shock.
All Too Hard: Clear favourite for a reason but has been beaten at short odds many a time in career. Last two runs were huge but will the change of owners have put him back? Time will tell! Big issue is speed map
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 4, 9
Strategy: Tough race. If betting here I would be betting around King Mufahasa to place. If taking Tri/F4s, I would be adding in Le Remas and Dance With Her for value.
Caulfield Race 8
Highly Recommended: Looking fo rfurther than this it seems but did run well three back at distance. Still hard to have here today.
Foreteller: Big run last start and will improve down 2kg today and up 200m. Big chance.
Invest: Needs further.
Good Ba Ba: Looked to have improved last start but form lines around First Command were smashed last start. Does look to be wanting the 1600m is the big positive.
Domesky: Didn’t show enough last prep to suggest a first up win today at this distance.
Budriguez: Decent run last start wen leading start to finish. This is MUCH harder.
Prairie Star: Ran 2L behind Alcopop at Flemington last start. Down 3kg today off a short spell and has won at this distance previously. Big chance.
Lord of Brazil: Big win last start at Flemington. Equal class today but down 4kg. Has every opportunity.
Chasse: Doesn’t look good enough on form.
The Wingman: Not good enough on form.
Zabisco: This class does look a bit beyond the horse today.
Gold Sand: Good first up run but poor second up. Suited by track but this look a little hard.
Royal Mail: BIG question marks around this horse. Off for 5 months since having a terrible year. Previous to that was 1 win 1 place from 4 in class and is 2 wins 2 places from 6 at distance. Has placed 3 from 5 at track and ONLY runs well on a good track. He gets everything he wants today. Big overs IMO.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 7, 8, 13
Strategy: Tough race. Backing Prairie Star to win and Lord of Brazil as a saver bet. Will be having a Speculation E/W on Royal Mail.
Caulfield Race 9
Koonoomoo: Disappointing first up and up 1.5kg today. Will be needing luck to win this.
Bonnie Mac: Just like Koonoomoo was disappointing. Up 0.5kg today and needs to find much more than shown previously.
There’s Only One: Big chance on previous form lines. Never missed a place first up from 5. Placed 5 from 7 at class. Never missed a place at distance. Only issue is inside barrier.
Manhattan Maid: Not good enough on first up form.
Vain Attraction: Good run last start but hard to see her finding enough to turn around the form lines today.
Bonaria: Quality mare. Williams on board today and will sit mid to back of field and be pushing hard late – but some speedmaps do have her pushing further forward than normal which does help. Big chance today.
Avionics: Not good enough.
Never Forget: Needs to find much more than last run a few months back. Looking for further.
Biancon Rose: Runs well first up but this does look a little strong for her.
Loveyamadly: Favourite for a good reason. Will be pushing forward, down 3kg today and suited at track. The one to beat.
Vibrant Rouge: Back to 1200m suits today. Weighted poorly is the big issue.
Riviere: Same weight with Loveyamadly again today. Hard to see overcoming that 1.3L difference.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 6, 10
Strategy: Loveyamadly is value at the price. Back for the win and then a half size bet on Bonaria to win also.
Respected form analyst Dominic Beirne has warned against taking the short price about boom colt All Too Hard in tomorrow’s C. F. Orr Stakes in his exclusive preview for Betfair punters.
In projecting the speed map of the race, Beirne says “the front quartet has significant control over the fate of hot favourite,” and that “if the frontrunners pace the race correctly, the gaps in the running line will not appear for All Too Hard and he will be caught three wide facing the breeze or have to give a long start.”
Beirne has assessed him at $2.50 to win and says “his popularity will result in him being very close to even money, at which price I am prepared to gamble against him.”
“If he’s even money he’s worth a lay; the better value may be in opposing him for a place,” Beirne advised.
Orr Stakes tip – KING MUFHASA
Dominic Beirne’s speed map has him setting the tempo from the inside gate and having significant control over the field and favourite All Too Hard.
Best – CHARGE ACCOUNT [Warwick Farm R5 No. 11]
Though only a maiden winner, Dominic Beirne has rated this gelding at Listed company level. He will “be surprised if he starts better than $1.50 and should be far too quick for this opposition.”
Value – TOUGHER THAN EVER [Warwick Farm R6 No. 9]
Beirne considers that this colt has a high potential rating and that “he is very likely the best horse in the race. His current price $6.00 is acceptable.”
Lay – ALL TOO HARD [Caulfield R7 No. 9]
Beirne thinks that “his rival jockeys will make it very difficult for him on Saturday” and that “the IWS computer has assessed him at $2.50 to win, so if he’s even money he’s worth a lay.”
Best backed – LOVEYAMADLY [Caulfield R9 NO. 10]
In another race that Dominic Beirne thinks “frontrunners look advantaged,” she should cross with Biancon Rose and “be relied upon to quicken away at the top of the straight.” Punters agree: $3.80 in to $3.40 early.
Warwick Farm Race 1
All the Talk deserves to be favourite but Just a Blur off a strong trial is overs.
Confidence 65%
Warwick Farm Race 2
Two stand outs here. Princess Layla was beaten by a better horse last start in She’s Clean but from barrier 1 should get a solid run today. The main threat is Mickelberg who will try and lead her up. A fast pace should suit Layla.
Confidence 80%
Warwick Farm Race 3
Planetarium keeps putting in solid runs and is due to win today off weights and times.
Confidence 70%
Warwick Farm Race 4
Very open race. That’s a Good Idea looks to be hard to beat on recent runs and form lines while Jordan just keeps putting in solid runs but is 2kg worse off today. The big watch horse for mine is General Groove who is due to win and is BIG overs.
Confidence 75%
Warwick Farm Race 5
Charge Account will be winning this. Kimberley Kid just keeps putting solid runs in and will speed map well to have a crack at a place once again at big odds.
Confidence 90%
Warwick Farm Race 6
Happy Galaxy looks to be a star in the making but this is a massive step up today. He meets proven group horses only 3kg difference today which is crazy. Not very keen this race as the top for plus number 9 also have a chance against the fav. Hard to tell how they will all resume.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Two key runners here for us. The first is Peck. Resuming after 4 months off where ran 1.3L behind Kelinni on previous prep and other good runs. Will put in a nice run first up. The horse we are really keen on is Mr Edison. Down 5kg today up in class when 1.8L behind Frozen Rope last start. Ready to win and ran well two back at the track.
Confidence 70%
Warwick Farm Race 8
Four key runners in this race. Kinnersley has won two or last three and was ridden incorrectly two back when still finished off strongly. Has won at the track previously and goes well at the distance. Thumbtacks showed huge improvement last start after a strong 2nd to Merlin Mustand previous to that. Can go as well again today. Havana Rey is simply a forgive run from last start. Something went wrong and will go better today. Finally, Frozen Rope has been best backed for obvious reasons. Looks to be a star in the making.
Confidence 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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