Horse Racing Form – Caulfield & Randwick – Saturday 28 April 2012

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to the weekends form. We are quite confident on a few of our tips below. Follow our confidence factor and as always, choose your bets carefully, don’t just bet every race. We will be updating our tips as the day goes depending on how the tracks are racing so please remember to follow us on twitter @TheProfitsComAu.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=34935&raceid=305199&plusday=0
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield

Race 1
Folding Gear won well on a ground that suited it last up in Group 3 company on this track. Gets a huge 4kg increase in weight on it’s back. Is a quality horse and has run well the last four starts. Will go close
Turnitup is a good horse who ran well last start 4th to Mawingo who put about 2L on the field. Up 1kg for that run and seems to not be suited by the shorter straight at Caulfield..
Lordoftheparrots may be one to watch.. A valid second last up on this track over 1800 and down 5.5kg up in class. Might just find these horses too hard for it.
Finally, the horse we are very keen on in this race is Placement. Won VERY well last up off 56.5kg over 2000 at Flemington. Get’s the PERFECT run of the race from barrier 1 and Katie Mallyon on board means the horse is down 5.5kg to 51kg onboard. Won 2 of last 4 starts with a 2nd to Stole and 3rd behind Rock of Ages, both who have gone to better class races. Goes well on any type of track so looks very well suited here.
Confidence Factor – 85%

Race 2
General Truce ran a solid run last up and comes into this up 2kg on that run after a claim of 3kg. Will need to produce a better run to win here though.
Galbraith put in a sensational run last start and should be primed to put in another good run. Does go up 3kg from last start but handles the weight. Should get an easier run up front this time out and may be given a sit (we were surprised they tried to lead). Won it’s last race on a Slow track. Will go very well here.
Broken can’t be discounted with a 1/2 from 4 first up record and 1/5 from 9 in class. Times are ok but may just be too slow for this.
Translation put in a decent run last up and could be suited by the down in trip run. If the course plays out for it, has a chance.
Confidence Factor – 80%

Race 3
Zamorar comes into this race as a short priced favourite off 57kg after running 4th 1.8L in a much harder race. Zamorar on form deserves to be this short with wins in 3 of it’s last five races, two of which were by 3.5L or more. The two loses were both 4th 1.8L, one vs Sepoy! Zamorar is the quality horse and will be hard to beat.
Counter Sign comes into this race quite well. Down 2.5KG from last start on a massively fast time that just didn’t suit. Can win this on form.
Not sure what will be shown by Infinite Energy. Has the ability but can’t back.
Vatican is an interesting runner. Lead out a very fast pace last start over 1100 and could really be suited by the 1000m on a shorter track. Was 0.3L behind Vain Attraction 2 back and 1L behind Tres Vite last start (2kg beter off). Vaticans sectionals are MUCH better than the last time against Zamorar and comes in 2kg better off.
Tres Vite comes into this very well. Gained a 1kg advantage on Vatican last start but now is 2kg worse off and barrier 10 means we just can’t fancy it on top here. Has a very good shot though.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 4
Skip – 2 Year olds

Race 5
Lucky Penny is an interesting runner that won by 8L in it’s first run at Wodonga. The times were not too impressive but the horse was given an easy ride over the line and is 3.5kg down. This is a MUCH harder race and can’t have it this start.
Classic Elle is the class runner of the race. Won well in this class first up and then a handy 4th in harder company. Should be suited here.
City of Song was impressive winning last up. If the ground is playing out for swoopers then look her way. Could be value.
Stacey Lee has run well the last three starts in lesser company. Don’t discount.
You Can Dance, Annario and Trading Halt look to be a class below these runners
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 6
Let’s start with a horse we have backed previously and is in our blackbook – Lethal Arrow. It doesn’t have the best first up record but runs best on a heavy/slow or dead track having never won on a Good track, so the conditions look to suit. Ignore last start and you will see a horse that Won in lesser class, ran 2nd 0.2L in equal class and 1.5L off win X2 runs in a stronger class. Looks very well suited.
Cellarmaster is a horse than gives a good run every time. Has only ever placed once here from 6 starts so that alone with the heavy weight makes up say no.
Redhead Rage has form behind/slightly in front of Cellarmaster and also heavy weight so also discounting.
Wealthy Lad is very interesting. Has been begging for longer distances the last three runs and gets back to the 1400 which suits it in a class that also suits. Last two runs over 1400 have been 0.5 and 0.4L loses at Flemington and Caulfield in Equal or Stronger class. When you consider Wealthy Lad is 1/2 from 4 on Slow, looks well placed.
Bereft made up a lot of ground last up at Flemington. May not be suited by the shorter straight but will still run very well.
Royal Rambler comes into this race with some interesting form. Has some good times to its name and seems like 1400 is a good distance. Ran 3.5L behind Southern Speed two back.
Eight Cards is 0 wins from 4 starts in this class. Has looked ok the last 2 races but passing here.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 7
Manila Jewel ran a very solid race last up after taking a sit instead of leading. This tactic worked and expect the same here. Doesn’t hit her strides until around 4th/5th up and is on target here.
Epingle is the short price favourite here after a good run 2nd behind Placement. Will run well.
Queens Fashion and The Nights Hot are both decent horses but neither have won in this class. Queens Fashion seems to be going slightly the better.
Confidence Factor – 60%

Race 8
Bonnie Mac is a good little mare and comes into this race off a very good first up win in Australia with a very valid 33.20 sectional on a dead track.
La Praline has jumped at $4.30 or less in it’s last 5 starts with 3 of those being at Caulfield. Having won only one of those last five starts (at Caulfield), this step up in class looks hard. The BIG positive is 51kg. Should get an easy run and may just win this.
Royal Bender is an interesting runner. Back down to a winable race and has won 3 from 5 on slow tracks. If the ground continues to be slow, may be a big amount of value, especially if you take note of it’s 2nd behind Star of Giselle two back.
Princess Narine started her prep very well in similar company to this until going up in class and still running well. This looks much easier and if runs at best, very good shot.
Sussuro is one to watch. Ran well first up after a long prep but never won 2nd up. Keep in mind.
This is a big step down in class for Avionics who has been a little off as of late. Could win if produces best but believe it’s coming to the end of its run and needs a spell.
Confidence Factor – 80%

Randwick

Race 1
Anise has been getting too far back in her races to win this one. Will need to be pushed a little further forward to stand a chance.. but 0 wins or places from 3 at this distance dosn’t inspire confidence.
Hallowell Belle could be described as the unluckiest 2 win horse with 11 placings. weighted well, she looks perfectly suited to this race.
Ever The Same has been running well recently. Could reverse the 3rd 0.5L two back behind Hallowell back with this run.
Detours is a horse with great ability. Will get a gun run from barrier 1 and will sit closer to front than last start. Genuine chance.
Angel of Mercy ran some very good runs in Melbourne and ran on strongly last start. Get the feeling they will ride her closer to the front and could win this.
Unsure what to make of Bound To Blush. Looks like it will find at least one too good here.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 2
Isopach put in a good race when 2.5L behind Polish Knight who then ran on even better after that race for 2nd in a better event. Was injured as well. Always a concern though when a horse comes back so fast from an injury.
Ambidexter has been very unlucky this prep with x2 fourth placings by 0.8L and 0.5L. Back to Gp3 company, this looks a little easier task. Very good chance.
Rekindled Alliance is a good horse but seems to have been given all the chances in the world. Chances are it finds another horse too good for it here.
Huegill is interesting. Promised a lot but never delivered. Could be calling out for the up in distance but doubt it.
Fat Al was SUPER impressive last start winning in a VERY fast time at Randwick. The one to beat.
Iggi Pop was strong behind Polish Knight last start but finds at least one too good here. Expect a closer to front run.
Confidence Factor – 86%

Race 3
Pierro is a star. The win over 1400 was in 1:21.4 which is just simply a blistering speed. We questioned him last time out due to the tempo expected in the race… well we got told!
Only two horses have even a shot here (but really don’t) in Dear Demi and Flying Snitzel. Flying Snitzel may be a good place bet.
Confidence Factor – 95%

Race 4
A big step up last start, Miss Keepsake ran a valid 2.5L 2nd behind More Joyous over 1500. She has returned very well this prep and looks like she could come on for this race. Big negatives are that she has never placed or won at the track from 2 starts and is 0/3 from 8 at distance.
Fibrillation has run VERY well the last two starts. Barrier 3 suits her here and she is well weighted after a FM-GP3 win last up. Is good on any type of ground and finds her way through fields with good rides from Avdulla.
Shannara looks suited to this race. Weighted nicely and comes in with good form after being close in two group 3 races. May need to find an extra length here but could produce.
Divorces just gets too far back in her races for us to have a go in such a big field. Normally gets blocked or has to take the bad ground.
Big last up run by Skyerush. Step up in distance does suite but can’t see it winning.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 5
This is what we call the testing material for Atlantic Jewel. She is obviously the classiest horse in the race but her sectionals are really not massive and we think there could be an upset on the cards.
So who can cause the upset? We have it down to the two upfront.
We figure that Rain Affair will be pushing to go forward and take the front spot. This will play into the hands of King Mufhasa who we expect to take a sit. Both these horses just stay on for days and put in strong final sectionals while pushing a strong race. Atlantic Jewel settles near the back of the field and may settle 3-5L off these teams which is a big amount to give up to such class. We will find out soon enough!
Confidence Factor – 50%

Race 6
You can’t question the class of Efficient and we all know that the horse can stay out the 3200m. Think a few will still be too good for it here.
Drunken Sailor is a quality horse and has run well over long distances but once again doesn’t have the class to beat all of these home.
Nitwot is a massive chance here. Ran very well in the Melbourne Cup and is WELL treated by weights here down 3.5kg from all the WFA races recently. Niwot will be there at the end!
Precedence is also very well treated by the weights here. Down 3kg from 0.2L loss to Permit two runs back, loves a dead track. We have this horse as the value of the race.
Permit isn’t well treated by this race. Up 0.5kg from last start win and down 0.5kg from 0.2L win over Precedence. Is the form horse of the race but may be outweighted by a few.
Older Than Time has been improving with every run and may be looking for the 3200 to produce her best. Watch for a bold run.
Anudjawun… does enough to impress and doesn’t do enough to win.
Nextanix ran very well last up but feeling is that he is out of this.
Confidence Factor – 60%

Race 7
Back to the 2000m mark, this race looks suited for one horse.
Manighar is amazing value on the totes. We can’t believe it. After three impressive wins, the bookies are still keen to take the grey god on! Manighar just simply is the best horse right now, in this race. If produces sectionals similar to last start, just wins this race.
Americain got given a poor ride last start but to be fair, Manighar was amazing also. Sectionals were blistering. Not suited by the 400m down in track. Should run well but can’t have it on top!
Jimmy Choux is a quality horse that keeps going and going. Won 3 and placed in 1 over distance with 2/2 from 5 at class. After the first up run, think it may not be up to this just yet.
Rangirangdoo can’t be ruled out of this at good odds. Ran well 0.1L behind Manighar on a course that suited. Feel that Manighar has progressed on more than Rangi though.
Rekindled Internet – No.
Speediness – No on weights
Secret Admirer – No
More Joyous – We love the horse. We won us a fair bit last week but wow at the price. She is way short here. Her sectionals last week were not the greatest you will ever see and not up to the standard of Manighar for us. Also a big query around the 2000m distance. She may just go and blow this one away, but that is why we will be savering her. The TAB are running a promo from 11am tomorrow (special bet) $50 max. If MJ runs 2nd, money back. Sounds good to us as a saver option!
Confidence Factor – 80%

Race 8
Eagles Falls shouldn’t be discounted here, especially if they are swooping well. Must include in Quaddies.
We are very keen on Neeson here. Hugely down in class after having some very close races behind Rain Affair and Master of Design recently. Off the same weight, should be winning this!
Pinwheel comes into this out of a form race where Master of Design finished infront of it. Could run well here.
Nobby Snip is horribly weighted here off 57kg. Can’t have it here.
Tiger Tees is a good horse but also weighted poorly off 57kg.
Dee’N’Gee comes into this very well. should be there at the end.
Finally, Latin News is one to watch. Looks like there will be one too good for it here but should go close. Hasn’t won since 2010.
Confidence Factor – 85%

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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