Horse Racing Form – Caulfield, Rosehill and Morphetville – Boxing Day – Wednesday 26 December 2012

Welcome to The Profits Boxing Day form. We hope you had a wonderful Christmas with family and friends! While you were enjoying the presents and family feasts, we were busy with our heads down getting some quality form out for one of the best days of the year! As it is a public holiday, let’s hope the returns are twice as good as normal! As always, we hope our form matches up with yours, so good luck and happy punting!

Caulfield Racecard
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.

Rosehill Racecard
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 Two Sugars

Next Best
Rosehill Race 6 Le Roi

Best Value
Caulfield Race 6 Veewap
Rosehill Race 8 The Shooter
Morphetville Race 7 Verco Road

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield

Caulfield Race 1
Digitalism: Strong run second to King Krovanh (scratched) last start at course and similar distance. Up in class again today but has the ability to win today.
Arousing Suspicion: Ignore last start and look to two previous runs where in much harder company at Flemington ran 1.5L off a win and then next start beat Emergency Ward by 1.8L whose form lines have been holding up recently. Has the ability to win today but need to be ridden cold.
Cooldini: Equal weight today with Digitalism and needs to find an extra 0.7L which is findable up an extra 200m. Does still have to find it and Digitalism has room to improve also.
Strive to Excel: Won a much easier race than this last start and couldn’t win at Mornington two back. Does seme handy but needs to find much more today to win this.
Duplicity Jones: Couldn’t get within 2.5L in a maiden race last start. Can’t win today off this form.
Confidence 70%

Caulfield Race 2
Calcatta: Well backed first up and JUST won at the valley. Down 1kg today but up in class. Has the ability and times to win.
Register: Slowly ran 1000m race first up and was made to come from the back. Got close but wasn’t good enough. Has every chance today.
Distinctive Flyer: Allowed to load up a slowly run race and couldn’t last it out. Too poor to win this today.
Devil Woman: On first up run happy to be against.
Every Faith: Market may be your only guide. The mother won a maiden (first try) with a third, second and then unplaced and didn’t race since that. Only issue is that all those were over 1800m+.
Montsegur: Market is your only guide. Snowden runners always attract a fair bit of support first up.
Prairy Kat: Dam has produced a very handy horse called Anevay who has won at Flemington and second behind Satin Shoes (first up) and One Last Dance second up. Also won at Canterbury… has a very good record. Out of Hayes yard and if produces similar form lines, will be very hard to beat today.
Prime Motive: Market your only guide.
Son Senoras: Out of a family full of winners. Unfortunately all of them not up to this class. Market your guide.
Confidence 65%

Caulfield Race 3
Port Vell: Far down in class today but still has only won 2 from 30 in class and recent runs have been poor. Can’t have even off 58.5kg.
Midnight Glory: last start run at Flemington was good. Down in class and only up 0.5kg after claim today, has a chance.
Chateau Fort: Has come back from break poorly. Up 2.5kg today while Midnight Glory only up 0.5kg and finished far in front of him. Can’t have today.
Whisper Downs: Was ok last start but up 0.5kg today also. Midnight Glory was lengths clear last start so hard to see him turning it around today.
Alrouz: Keeps putting in solid runs but has been found out recently. If produces similar run to three back at Moonee Valley has a chance today from barrier 1.
Vizhaka: Super disappointing loss last start at Moonee Valley. Down 4.5kg today and will get a solid run from barrier 5. Big chance today.
Gogonski: Keeps producing solid runs. Never won at class and only placed once. Does have the ability to improve today.
Dereims: Weighted nicely off 51kg but can’t see him winning today.
Confidence 70%

Caulfield Race 4
Euryale: Returned from break poorly but did the same last start before winning 3rd up. Off 60kg which looks a little too big for her class. Could still run well.
Manila Jewel: Been up a long time this prep. This is a huge step back in class and last time down in this class ran 0.8L second at course and similar distance. Still needs to improve today.
Innocent Lady: Similar form lines to Manila Jewel. Has ability but needs luck today.
Streets of Seattle: Turned around her form last start at Caulfield. Down 4kg today and off that has the chance to win today.
Two Sugars: Super unlucky two back with rider losing whip. Has the ability to improve onwards today. Ran very well in Open last start and off the same weight today. Has every chance and runs well at track.
Hidden Message: Not good enough on previous runs at this weight today.
Amalgamate: Not the worst in the race but this is a big step up in class.
Bells of Troy: Not good enough for this class.
Confidence 80%

Caulfield Race 5
Gail: Has won first up previously. Super form lines from last start having beat Banca Mo by 1.8L. Biggest issue is the distance today. Has never placed from 3 starts at distance or 4 starts at track which are big negatives off 60kg.
Sussuro: Suited by wet tracks with a huge F&M win last prep at course over 1600m by 3.3L. Has never missed a place from 5 starts at distance. Hasn’t returned in best of form this prep, would need it wet today.
Tariana: Not good enough first up and has never won second up before. If can stay  out the trip today from barrier 3 has a big chance on last prep form, but didn’t show enough first up to suggest can improve in this short amount of time.
Sensational Report: Just keeps producing solid runs without winning. Weighted well again today and runs well at the track. Not her best distance though.
Blue Ribbon: Lightly raced mare with a fair bit of ability. Never placed from 3 starts first up which is disappointing. If has trained on, can go close today.
Louisville Dancer: Last start pulled hard and checked out of it so simply a forgive run. 1.5kg better off today on Vain Attraction also and if produces a solid run, can go close. Beat Vain Attraction two back by 2L.
Vain Attraction: Strong win last start but 1.5kg worse off today on Lousville Dancer. Has the ability to wina gain today and runs well at Caulfield.
Oamaru Rose: Never placed from 4 starts at this distance and placed once from 6 first up. Ran ok first up at MV over 950m but this is a step up again. Only positive is 51kg.
Vihanna Victory: Has won first up, never won at class but has a good 2/3 from 6 record at distance. Weighted nicely today. Could be value.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 6, 7

Caulfield Race 6
Zedi Knight: Found a win last start (half way into prep) at course and distance. Has won once first up previously but is better long into preps. Enjoys track and distance. Will put on a solid pace out front.
Diplomatic Force: An absolute moral beaten last start at Caulfield. New jockey on which will help. Biggest issue today is up 3.5kg for that run. Still a very big hope today.
Veewap: Been off with a spell which could help him. Has been going close all prep with a win here at slightly longer than this distance.
Sea Lord: Impossible to beat at Moonee Valley this prep, just kept finding but has been run down both runs this prep at Caulfield. Slight spell and should return very well. If can get a very easy pace out front, could be hitting the line in front.
Alpha Proxima: Has large upsides but this race is equally as hard as previous runs. Has to get a better ride today to win.
Undeniably: Hit the line hard first up and only up 1.5kg today. Could be the one to beat.
Gold Sand: Good first up record and weighted well today, has wona t distance but may be looking for slightly further.
By The Way: Continues to hit the line hard but from barrier 2 may be stuck with a poor ride out the back today needing to race for luck. Has ability.
Youbolt: Up 2.5kg today from last start 4th in similar class. Has to find a few extra lengths for me today.
Roses in the Glen: Good first up runner but this is a step up in class today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Caulfield Race 7
Pitta Patta: Been with Kent yard for 4 months now after some very impressive runs and times up in Darwin. Helpful claim today. Will be very hard to beat.
Angels Beach: Won a very easy maiden at Pakenham first up very well by 7L. Up 2.5kg up in class today. Hard to beat but needs to find more today.
Dance Card: Disappointing first up and can run well if produces best form.
She Can Skate: Very strong form lines 0.4L behind Miss Softhands last start. Up 3.5kg today is a big negative though.
The Empress: Down in class off equal weight after claim. Has ability but needs to improve a length today.
Act Two: Down in class today and weighted nicely after claim. Has ability if trained on.
Carvalho: Won first up but this is much harder and no claim.
Chociti: May be better suited here today than first up run over 970m. Needs to have improved a bit though.
Day After Tomorrow: Ran second to La Tikka Rosa first up who ran second to Vibrant Rogue at Flemington last start. Then won maiden first up this prep easy and is down 0.5kg today after claim. May be the value runner today.
East Star: On previous form doesn’t seem the best in race and find it hard to win.
Return Journey: Times not good enough for this.
Bon Vacance: First up time was strong. May have improved onwards and run well today out of Hayes yard.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 3, 5, 10, 13

Caulfield Race 8
Clanga’s Glory: Up 3.5kg today down in class where didn’t produce much at Flemington last start. Has to find a lot more today.
Dane The Rave: Poor run last start but only up 0.5kg from that grade and meets a few runners 3kg better off.
Scottish Border: Can’t have today on previous form last prep. Never won at this distance.
King Cobweb: Hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Lordoftheparrots: Better suited to much further.
Wind Shear: Hasn’t won in nearly two years and hasn’t shown anything last prep or this prep.
Finishing Card: Good win last start at Caulfield. Up in class today but down 1.5kg. Should be there at the end.
Chord: Only placed once from 7 at this distance. Better suited by further distances.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 8

Rosehill

Rosehill Race 1
Hawkspur: Up 2.5kg today after just winning an equal class race at course and similar distance last start. Looks to have been wanting these types of distances and has found his best form. Big chance today.
Mintaro: Meets Hawkspur 1.5kg better off today at the weights which should be the difference weights wise. Big chance.
Spurtonic: Waterhouse runner who won well two back in much easier company and a much shorter distance. Questionalbe if he will improve enough today to beat the better horses.
Gday Kitty: Won last start start maiden in a strong time but looks outclassed today.
Confidence 70%

Rosehill Race 2
Forever Crazy: Strong form lines from last prep. Up in class today but has ran well in this class (3 runs 3 places) previously. Claim of 3kg may be the difference today. Big chance.
Potiche: Hasn’t run within 2.8L this prep apart from first up win in a much easier company race. Can’t see winning today.
Campania: Won first up this prep but after that has not progressed. Can’t have today.
Wind Bender: Threatened to break though first up in much easier company. Can’t see her having trained on enough to win in this company.
Bronte Express: Not good enough on first up run.
Shes A Girl: Not been within 3.5L all five runs of her career. Most have been in better class than this but I couldn’t have even after 5 months off.
The Black Diva: No chance today.
Confidence 75%

Rosehill Race 3
Slippery Moss: Up 5kg from last start 4L loss to a handy horse in Heart Testa. Previous to that solid runs. Can’t have today on this weight but wouldn’t be surprised if the class of the horse prevails.
Imperil: Down 0.5kg and ran on nicely last start. Could improve again today.
Nonevero: Ignore last start and look to previous run where won very well in a very respectable time. This seems a step up in class again but has the ability to win.
Corryvreckan: Won strongly first up in easier company but is progressive.
Photon Willie: Seems to be a very hard horse to get going right. Up in class again today, can’t have after not being able to win maidens.
Final Crescendo: Been very unlucky this prep. Last two runs had excuses. Has a chance if everything goes right today.
Greek Island: Injured during race last start. Has ability but needs to find much more today.
Live For Today: Unsure what to make of this runner. With 51kg in the race, could run well but can’t see on previous form having enough class.
Confidence 60%

Rosehill Race 4
Agent Bauer: Back down in class today but can’t have on previous runs.
Eliza Blues: Up in class today. Can’t have on recent runs.
Praise Be: Up in class and 3kg today. Needs to find much more than last two starts.
Largo Da Barra: Hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Dal Rommel: Hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest can take this out today. May improve though.
Georgey Aeroplane: Big run last start when blocked for run. Previous two runs were also big. Will go close again today. Most importantly, runs well on wet or dry tracks.
A Shade Better: Can’t see him competing on last four runs.
Cloud Valley: Found out last start up in class. Up 3kg today and will struggle off the weight.
Gilded Spur: Can’t win on all of the runs this prep.
Thebigiam: Suited at the distance but may found this a little too strong a race once again.
Gnarly: Hard to place up from Melbourne. Weighted nicely and if produces a run similar to first up over a much shorter distance, could run well.
Confidence 70%

Rosehill Race 5
Radar: Didn’t impress first up this prep. Runs better second up and suited by Rosehill track. Does go well on wet tracks also. Weighted nicely after claims.
Flying Bay: Last three wins on slow or heavy tracks. If we get a very wet track today, is a big chance off 55.5kg.
Mickelberg: Only won once from 16 at this class and never won first up before. Up in class but down in weight today. Can run on well today and likes any conditions.
My Sabeel: Won very well first up in harder company. Big chance today from barrier 5.
Our Girl Charlize: Best record on dead tracks. Hasn’t gone close here though.
Shadow Line: Weighted nicely today and if very wet has a shot, otherwise can’t have.
Glamour Rock: Horse just keeps doing a few things wrong but if improves on last start run, can win.
Luccello Rosso: Weighted well today but even after that not a chance.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 4, 12

Rosehill Race 6
Poste Restante: Has won in class previous up in Queensland. Weighted appropriately today but can run well. Only issue is 0 wins or places from 3 at distance.. but has progressed since those runs.
Winning Glory: On first two runs this prep, can’t win.
Le Roi: Big win last start at Caulfield. Up 4kg which seems appropriate. Has the ability and is super progressive. Hard to beat!
Praecido: Hasn’t been the same since injured three back. Ran on nicely last start but has to find much more today. Could find it.
Brightest: Weighted poorly again today just like last start against Angelus. Will need to get the run of the race to be in with a chance.
Fromelles: Can’t win on any form shown this prep.
Iggi Pop: 6L 2nd to Cantonese last start. Up 4kg today but will get a strong ride.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3

Rosehill Race 7
Manasota: If trained on has the ability to win today off 57.5kg. Needs to have trained on quite well though.
Lonace: Huge run last start in a very strong time. Down 1.5kg today and if trained on will be simply winning today.
Shiso: Has some very strong times from this prep but has to find about 1-2 lengths today to be in with a chance.
Emerald Downs: Can’t see winning on previous form. Needs to find much more than showed last start.
Emporacat: Has shown some ability last prep including a 2.3L behind Kelinni at 1250m. Was very poor first up is the major issue.
Honour Ron: Can’t see him winning today on previous runs even with claim.
Battle Ready: On last start won’t be in this race.
Dont Blink: Showed some ability last start always running within around 2-3L of much better horses than this. Will appreciate a wet track and seems very well treated at the weights.
Slumdogmillionaire: Keeps putting in solid runs but isn’t up to this today.
Sheazali: Can’t see her winning this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 5, 13

Rosehill Race 8
Mossamine: Only placed once at 10 tries at this track. Does run well in this class but off 60.5kg looks safely held.
Color Purple: Weighted much better today than firs tup run where something went wrong. Big issue in that he doesn’t win and never in 22 starts at this class.
Cross of Gold: Huge run last start at Flemington. Up in class and weight today. The weight may be the only issue.
Inside Job: Up in class today but has been winning recently. Could go close today.
The Shooter: Never won first up but has won at class previously. 3rd by 0.8L to Its A Dundeel from last prep is decent form lines. Big chance.
Fedde: Forward enough to contest today. Still does need top improve.
Miss Diagnosis: Hard to place. Can’t have today.
Voltabolta: Not good enough for this.
Seuss: Has ability and could have trained on very well. Hard to tell. Money will be the guide.
Money Tree: Very good run with everything going wrong first up. Can run a good race at the weights.
Quick Peek: Not good enough on form lines this prep.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 4, 5, 10, 18

Morphetville

Morphetville Race 6
Nothing standing out here that I really want to back. Not having any thoughts here.

Morphetville Race 7
Conservatorium 3.5kg better off today on Hidden Value compared to 0.1L loss three back. Ran well in ascot in much harder grade. Big chance today. The two others to watch with form lines are Ametsis who went very close to beating Rose Pattern at Caulfield and Verco Road who ran 0.1L 2nd to Alcohol who won in Melbourne last weekend and 1.3L 2nd to Full Peal who beat home Tuscan Fire the very next race with Tuscan Fire running a close 2nd on the weekend in a harder race.

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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