Horse Racing Form – Caulfield – Sunday 30 September 2012

It has been a huge weekend so far with two massive days. Yesterday saw our best bet win by 6 lengths at $3.20 and one of our two best value tips winning at $30-1! The winners kept coming all day as well. Today we have our first Sunday Caulfield meeting for a long time and you can go down for a good day out for $15 entry! Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Race 5 Epaulette

Best Value
Race 7 Prince Obama

Best Lays
1. Race 3 Biancon Rose
2. Race 5 Ashokan
3. Race 6 Moment of Change

Specials
Betstar from 8am will be offering double fixed odds on the Group 1 Race 6.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
A very average race for a $80,000 prize.
Practised deserves to start a short priced favourite on recent runs and will be the one to beat.
Whisper Downs the half-brother to our 2YR-Old in training right now won well last start at Bendigo and should find the 2000m up to liking off 53kg. Should go close.
Ruma Roc on form should be running well but couldn’t back it here.
Mumbeilly out of Moody with Nolen on board seems to have progressed along nicely but times are a little slow to have.
Confidence: 85%

Caulfield Race 2
Manila Jewel was huge last start and on previous runs can run well in this race. The big concern is that the horse doesn’t seem to travel well on a Slow or Heavy track. With rain overnight we could see a Slow track for this race and 58kg is hard to lug around.
Chateau Margaux is certainly a horse on the up with both Thy and Oasis Bloom’s form working out. Seems to handle any type of ground and will run well back down in winable grade.
Red Typhoon is one to watch. Has won 1 from 1 at this distance. Has performed well recently on form and could go close.
Rock Princess was impessive last start and likes a wet track. Seems to be wanting it very wet but could go well better weighted than the favourite.
Confidence: 75%

Caulfield Race 3
Simply Put will need to improve on first up run to be a chance here.
Biancon Rose could run well but on previous run would rather be on others.
Sussuro has some strong form lines and is good first up but seems to be better suited to 1600.
The Long Road is a big chance here today. Back to a trip that suits but big issue is a 0 win 1 place from 5 at Caulfield. Suspect this won’t matter and will run strongly.
Star of Giselle ran the 1000m in bliastering time first up and that is a very good prep to come back here. Weighted to win.
Tai Tai Tess is a horse with big form lines and will be there at the end if gets a good run.
Sharnee Rose will probably end up second again. Being serious though, a quality mare who just gets far back and doesn’t get the bob.
Finally, Barbie Dazzler a big run last start but suspect that was due to circumstance of the race. Happy to ignore.
Confidence: 70%

Caulfield Race 4
Big Chill is a super interesting runner. Has some good form lines from last prep and you can simply ignore first up run where lost a plate. Meets those that beat her 1.5kg better off.
Love for Ransom was massive first up but off the 59kg it is very questionable that she can produce a similar run.
Stella Lante also produced a massive run and on form just keeps putting in big runs. 1kg better off and could get a better ride.
Flying Hostess in with a chance on two back form but not on last start.
Ava’s Delight could go forward and run a very strong race.
Confidence: 80%

Caulfield Race 5
Epaulette is the class of this race and should be very hard to beat. The price is still juicy and worth taking.
Ashokan will run a solid race but shouldn’t be able to get over Epaulette.
Forgive last start for ShamExpress and should run very solidly.
Awesome Bro is a big threat here. Keeps improving and should improve again.
Confidence: 95%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5

Caulfield Race 6
This is a huge race. There are some very classy runners in this Group 1 and you could expect a long odds upset on the line up.
Starting with an outsider who has the class to win this in Glass Harmonium. Will go forward and set a strong tempo. Has the ability to stay on for days and will be hard to run down with such a short straight.
Pinwheel has been positioning very well and putting in very solid runs. Will be hard to beat here.
We’re Gonna Rock was super last start on the straight. Has never won at caulfield from three attempts but seems to be in career best form. The big question is if he will get the run or not today he wants.
Second Effort just keeps putting in solid runs. If the ground is Slow he is a super chance but we doubt it will be that wet at this time in the day. Should still run a solid race.
Smokin Joey has a 0 win 1 place record on five second up runs. A quality horse but can’t have him here.
Solzhenisyn has been beating lesser quality horses up in Queensland. This will be a big test but off 53kg, could find best here. Got a feeling they will push him forward for a sit which is what I would want.
Ignore last start of Shanghai Warrior and look to previous runs. Will go well but can’t back.
Moment of Change will find a few too good here up in class.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6

Caulfield Race 7
Curtana has always been a solid Caulfield racecourse horse. Progressed strongly last prep to win last start in a listed race. This does look a very competitive race but could go very close.
Stratcombe was horrible first up. Should run well but happy to be against here.
Sea Lord was super the first two runs and can’t be underestimated once again here. Weighted to win.
Amah Rock is a strong horse but not up to this level from where he will sit.
Miss Marx ran strongly behind More Joyous last start and could run very well again here. The form lines of this horse are very strong.
Morant ran strongly last start behind Bel Sprinter. Up in distance could find a bit more but barrier draw is tough.
Prince Obama can be forgiven for last run few runs and look to runs three and four back. Has been freshed up and is weighted well here. I would hope they push him further forward than the last few runs but on a dead track is suited. Will go very close.
Finally, If Sir Fernando makes the field, will run strongly also but may need to add form in once declared.
Confidence: 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 8, 12, 16, 18

Caulfield Race 8
Spirit Song went further back last start than the speed map suggested he would and that cost him the race. Expected to sit 2nd/3rd again today and hopefully will sit there. Extra 100m and a longer straight than MV will certainly suit him here.
Streaky Fella is a very classy horse and has some nice form lines. COuld run very well but suspect this is too short. Is weighted nicely.
Road Warrior won well last up for us at Morphetville but this is a much stiffer task. Should go close.
We all love a martini and Midnight Martini could shake this field up close to the lead. Expect a strong run.
Callanish is super interesting. Undefeated from six starts, this horse has to have a fair bit of class. Practiced will be a nice form line from the first race. Weighted well and should be there at the end.
Confidence: 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 9

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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