Happy Australia Day to everybody! The Moonee Valley card last night ended up being very solid. Our best bets didn’t go to well but other than those, our form was great including picking up the $1500 quaddie. Not to mention how the Tennis tips have done 4/4 over the past two days as well! The fields today look a little harder than last night but there are a few stand outs. As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Race 8 Keep Cool
Race 4 Miracles of Life
Race 2 Havana Rey
Race 6 Le Remas
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Summer Gem: Big win last start when blocked for run but got there easy by 0.8L. Down 3kg today up in class equally weighted against Nadeem Lass today.
Octavia: Lost as a short priced favourite at Flemington last start. Down 1.5kg here today but up in class. Should find the extra 100m a positive and expect a speed more suited to her today.
Legcut: Big run last start and down 3.5kg today. Looks to be better suited to Flemington than Caulfield though.
Nadeem Lass: Good run last start but can’t see her getting it over Summer Gem today after that last run at equal weights.
Taffetas: Just won last start before a spell in lesser company. Up 1kg today which looks harsh. Should run a nice race but hard to see her winning this.
Act Two: Ignore last start and look to two back. Has the ability to run well today but up 0.5kg today compared to Octavia down 1.5kg today. Hard to have.
Kochamma: Highly rated runner who disappointed off 51kg last start before spell. Must have improved significantly today.
Dream Chaser: Looks to be a progressive horse but not good enough here.
Platinum Diamond: Not good enough here.
Carvalho: Hasn’t shown enough to suggest can even place today.
Caulfield Race 2
Rusambo: Impressive form lines from last prep, won in this class two back on a track that doesn’t suit swoopers. Ran on well also last start when blocked for run and bled during race. Should have trained on and will be a big chance today.
Happy Galaxy: Big win last start but up in class today and weight. Certainly will be hard to beat here today but you have to question how good that race was last start.
Timely Truce: Up in class big time today. Has ability but needs to find a few more lengths.
Wakeel: Not good enough on previous two runs.
Caulfield Race 3
Kuroshio: Decent form lines behind Rockford and then ran 3rd 2.3L to Villa Verde who looks to be one of the most promising 2-YO’s going around. Should have trained on and will be hard to beat today.
Thermal Current: Ran a solid race last start at Flemington, but just couldn’t get the cash. Looks to be progressive but may not be as well suited to Caulfield than Flemington.
Magnaro: Won a maiden but this is a big step up today. Can’t have.
Excitable Boy: Meets Kuroshio 2.5kg better off today than the first meeting last start. Should have trained on and will go close from barrier 5.
Mal’s Pride: Doesn’t looks good enough on that first up win.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Hard to have today but could progress today.
Dissident: Hard to tell how he will run today. Market only guide.
Mon Gateau: Ran nicely in trial to win by 2L. Could run well again today.
Out Single Doubt: Market only guide
The Bronx: Market only guide
Caulfield Race 4
Diamond Glow: Won well first up at course and distance in a fairly average time. Up 3kg today looks up against it in this class.
Bulbula: Nice start to finish win but has to improve again today up 2.5kg. Does have the ability.
Swing Vote: Will be pushing forward and if produces similar performance to last start at Warwick Farm, then will be there at the line.
Montsegur: Deserved second favourite. Won VERY well last start and from barrier 1 will be pushing forward. Only up 1kg and she has huge upsides.
Miracles of Life: Impressive 5.5L win first up and then last start 9L win in a very impressive time over 1050m. The one to beat.
Mount Zero: Two solid runs but has to improve to even place today.
Donna Madeira: Won nicely over the 900m but this loooks much tougher.
Mystical Miss: Form lines look average at best.
Kerr: Trialled very well and big wraps on her today. Could be value.
Tango’s Daughter: Hard to rate. Market is your guide.
Caulfield Race 5
Spartini: Won four of last five races last prep and also did win first up. Progressed on strongl and won at course and distance last start. Big chance today.
Avionics: First two runs this prep have been average at best. Hard to see her progressing on to win today off 58kg.
Vain Attraction: Fairly average record in this class of race but has been running some solid races at course and similar distance. Weighted nicely today and could win. Should place and be value for that.
Loveyamadly: Good first up record and record at the distance. Won very well first up in much easier company and looks set to progress today. Big chance.
Belle Ez: Hard to see her progressing enough today to win.
Riviere: On previous form lines hard to see her winning today. Does have a good record at distance though.
Slewsay: Outclassed here.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 3, 5
Caulfield Race 6
Invest: Average first up record and only ever placed once at track or at distance. Needs to have improved a lot today at 60kg.
Under The Eifeel: Keeps running well but has never won from 6 tries at Caulfield.
Highly Recommended: Very disappointing last start at Rosehill. Needs a fast pace on to win today.
Orbit Express: Solid run last start but needs to improve a lot more today to win.
British General: 3 wins from 3 at this distance and just keeps running so well. Up 4kg today which may be the difference but he does certainly deserve to be favourite today.
It’s Crunch time: Disappointing last start and hard to see him improving enough today. Up to 1400m doesn’t seem a good move either.
Future Solution: 2.5kg better off today on British General but doesn’t’ seem good enough to pass him today.
Dash For Viz: Big run last start and meets British General 2.5kg better off today for 0.3L loss. Only issue is that he has never placed from 3 starts at track.
Adamon: Not good enough.
Le Remas: Huge start to finish win last start and will push forward to test British General.. on times, can win!
Quaddie leg two: 2, 5, 8, 10
Caulfield Race 7
Beyond Pardon: Not shown enough the last three runs to win today.
Rescue Mission: Two very solid runs over in Adelaide and back down in class today. Has the ability to go on and win big time.
Eight Bills: Won nicely last start at Mornington but this is much harder today.
Waltez: Has ability but first up run wasn’t good enough to suggest can win today.
Vatican: Been winning in Adelade in lesser company. Up in class today but has the ability to run a solid race.
Manhattan Maid: Good horse but never runs well enough first up. Happy to follow but later in prep.
The Minster: Never placed from two starts at this company. Has to have trained on big time today.
Decircles: Market will be your guide to how he will go today. Looks well weighted and if trained on is the winner here.
Members Joy: On previous runs is a big chance today. Only issue is that 6 runs at track and only 1 place.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 5, 8
Caulfield Race 8
Keep Cool: Big win last start over Tuscan Fire. Equal class today and only up 2kg after that win. Only issue is if he needs the fast pace.
Rowland: Not good enough for this race off weights.
Whisper Downs: Just keeps on progressing. This looks the hardest race for him to date. Will run well.
Midnight Glory: On last start needs to find another 2L.
Chord: Not good enough on recent runs.
Bells of Troy: Huge win last start and could progress on again today off a nice weight. Does need to run a little faster today is the only issue.
Now and Zen: Disappointing last start but down 2.5kg today meeting Whisper Downs 2kg better off today. Hard to see him getting the win today.
Beer Garden: Good run two back but has to find much more on last start run.
Red Shift: Not good enough on first up run. Does seem to like this distance but never won from 5 starts at this class.
Quaddie leg four: 2, 4, 8
Warwick Farm Race 1
A very competitive race that I don’t want to get involved in. Too many chances.
Warwick Farm Race 2
Havana Rey meets Ferment 5.5kg better off today. Simply looks the best in this race and will be almost impossible to beat off this weight.
Warwick Farm Race 3
A few key runners here. Titbit looks very hard to beat today. Weighted nicely down in class after a good run last start. Only issue is barrier 11 will be hard to slot in. Sharmardani on times can run another close race today. The favourite Bermuda Blu looks very hard to beat after four wins in a row and improving on again last start. Weighted to win.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Three horses stand out here. The first is Jordan who is down 4kg and up in class after a nice run behind Happy Galaxy first up. Only issue is that he may be wanting further. The next is That’s a Good Idea. Huge win last start at the warm and will go close again today on that form. Finally, the maiden winner Knoydart looks super and put in a huge time. Weighted nicely today. The play here looks to be to place bet That’s a Good Idea.
Warwick Farm Race 5
Three to consider here today. The first is Writteninthestars who off 56.5kg in stronger class today is a little up against it but has the ability to run solidly from barrier 1 and win. Tigon has winning form lines and is down in class today off 51kg.. weighted to win. Finally, hard to go past Matignon.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 7, 11
Warwick Farm Race 6
The Australia Day Cup is one of the best races of the day. A number of chances here so we look at a few of the key runners. Fiumicino should push forward today and off 55.5kg will go close. Reuben Percival will also be pushing forward to take a sit. Barrier 14 the only issue. The big hope today is Travolta. Ignore last start where got too much pressure. Should get a solid almost dream run and will be hitting the line.
Quaddie leg two: 2, 4, 7, 11, 12
Warwick Farm Race 7
Irish Jig can be forgiven for last start run and if so, the win over Uate looks solid. Off 58.5kg after claim and further down in class, looks weighted to win. Whisperrossa was a huge win last start at Gold Coast and will go close again today. Huge run last start from Deceiver at Flemington and finall Cosmo King ran nicely last start for a win and could progress.
Quaddie leg three: 1, 3, 10
Warwick Farm Race 8
Too many chances to say exactly who will win this. The two that stick out for us are Sables with strong form lines and Calvo who last run beat home Frozen Rope.
Quaddie leg four: 5, 9, 13, 14, 15, 18
Guest blogger Paul (@boof08) takes a look at the Hanging Rock fields and shares his best bets and picks for each race.
Darren (@eddo7804) has also shared his tips for the rock!
Race 1 – Number 1 Coin Toss
Race 2 – Number 9 Raw Will
Race 3 – Number 8 Duckowl Diamond
Race 4 – Number 6 Monsieur Pierre
Race 5 – Number 2 Dance Crew
Race 6 – Number 3 Henshaw
Race 7 – Number 9 Flea’s Mate
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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