Horse Racing Form – Caulfield, Warwick Farm, Eagle Farm and Morphetville – Saturday 1 December 2012

Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield! Another week another set of best bets getting home. Last night saw another, even though it was a short price, get up in Kukra. We are on a roll and hope to continue it here today. There has been a fair bit of rain overnight on the track and we are hoping for a Dead track throughout the day with about 10mm of rain. As always, we hope your form matches up to ours. Good luck and happy punting!

It is important to note that it is the Cystic Fibrosis Victoria Summer Race Day at Caulfield today with the aim of the day to increase the awareness of Cystic Fibrosis and provide education, support and advocacy to Victoria’s Cystic Fibrosis community. If you are heading to the track, please donate to the tin-rafflers or buy a ticket to the raffle being held on the day.

Caulfield Racecard
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.

Best Bet
Caulfiled Race 4 Clang And Bang

Next Best
Caulfield Race 8 Big Buddie

Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 Streets of Seattle
Caulfield Race 6 White Universe
Caulfield Race 8 Diplomatic Force

Best Lays
Race 5 Secret Liaison
Race 6 Flyingconi
Race 7 Orchard Street (to place)

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
I Am Titanium: Related to two very strong horses in Fortune of War and Sertorius. Market will be your guide. On form will be very hard to beat.
Resistant: Slowly away first up and should be better for that run. Should be better today.
Aurora’s Dance: No relatives to base form off. No trial so market only guide.
Fine Diamond: Won trial very well by 1L and is related to a unraced 3YO filly at the Waterhouse yard. Should run well on that trial.
Prato: Ran third behind Fine Diamond at trial. Nothing else to go off of.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: It is going to be a slow start to the day. Keep the wallet in your pants for this race.

Caulfield Race 2
Benenden: Ran on nicely at Flemington in a much harder race. Previous two runs were nice, but the times around those races look average at best. Could run well.
Our Celladoor: Good win second up when lead from start to finish on a very average pace. Needs everything to go her way.
Vicario: Back down in class today but still looks outclassed.
Noisette: Hasn’t shown enough this prep to win.
Precocious Ness: Could run well off first up run but happy to be on others.
Mrs Hadlee: Poor last start but ran well previous run. Can run well.
La Pepper: Looks outclassed.
Wicked Enchantress: Outclassed
Confidence 65%
Strategy:
Poor race that Benenden looks the best in. Better races to bet in today.

Caulfield Race 3
Haussmann: Ran well first up at 1200m, but then failed next start at Flemington. Back down in class today but up to 60kg. Could be the one to beat.
Fringed: Two close runs this prep and a win. Couldn’t win last start and is up in class again today. Needs to find a length or two.
Under The Leaner: Outclassed on runs this prep.
General Groove: Jumped poorly and was cost a good run last start. Was a big step up in class.
Tiger’s Cub: Hasn’t gone close enough recently for me to back
King Krovanh: Big win last start when blocked for run at Cranbourne. Got very lucky to get the win. Needs to improve today for a chance.
Lampedusa: Won well first up and then went back second up which didn’t suit. Should push forward today and go close.
Medvedev: Good first up win. On times, will improve again today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: King Krovanh Ran on strongly last start at Cranbourne, but this is a step up. Don’t really like anything else in this race. My money isn’t touching this race.

Caulfield Race 4
Macedonian: First up for nine months. Never won at distance and only placed once. Has won once first up. Hasn’t win since 2010. Will need to find something special today for a chance.
Streaky Fella: Gone backwards this prep. Needs to find something much better today.
Muirfield: Ran on ok second up this prep and looks suited by the distance today. Run well off weight.
Tai Tai Tess: Been fairly disappointing this prep but ran on well last start. Up to 2000m will suit but never won at Caulfield. Can run well from barrier 1.
Clang And Bang: Absolutely weighted to win today. Off 51kg, will have the run of the race from barrier 6 going forward. Will be almost impossible to pass.
Le Roi: Very good win third up at Adelaide last start. Back down to 54kg today and will run well.
Studley Park: Outclassed on recent runs.
Niptious: Didn’t stay out the trip last start in lesser company. Down 4.5kg today which suits but up in class. Will find this hard to win but has the ability.
Umatic: Not shown enough this prep to suggest will win, but off light weight run three back, could go close.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Clang and Bang has been running very well recently and keeps on winning for us. Trainer keeps putting C&B into very winable races and finding perfect weights. Looks a great bet today at the price. 5 unit win bet Clang and Bang.

Caulfield Race 5
Secret Liaison: Seemed to get lucky last start and suited by the tempo. Never won at Caulfield and only placed twice from nine starts at the track. Did win in same class last start and up 1.5kg after claim today. Will go well but, need to find more today.
Model To Nite: Last three urns have been average at best. Needs to find 2-3L today.
Streets of Seattle: Very poor first two runs this prep but has won 3 and placed 1 from 4 at this distance previously. Down in class and weighted to win off 53kg. Will need to have trained on and push further forward today.
Bia Diamond: As expected two back finally got a win this prep and then backed it up again in lesser company. Down 3kg today, but a big step up in class. Has the ability but needs to improve.
Danyme: Needs to improve again today to have a chance. First up win was in lesser class.
Kasmaher: Ran fairly last start from the back and meets secret liason 2kg better off today. Will be more suited by the Caulfield track than Moonee Valley. Go close.
Help: Poor last start at Moonee Valley and didn’t look suited to the extra distance. Poorly weighted.
Fiesole: Been running well recently but this is a big step up in class. The good news is that she is very well weighted off 52kg (down 6kg). Can go close!
Littleriver Ruby: On form looks outclassed but is weighted nicely.
Tully Costa: Only won a maiden and weighted poorly today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 3, 4, 8
Strategy: A poor race overall and that is why we are looking wide. The form lines around Bia Diamond and Secret Liaison are very questionable and that brings in our picks. Streets of Seattle 1.5 Units Each Way and Fiesole 0.5 units to Win.

Caulfield Race 6
Highly Recommended: Average at best first up this prep. Never won at distance or at track and only once from 11 at class. Up against it today off 60kg. Will need to produce something special.
Rockpecker: Showed more than Highly Recommended at Sandown and meets 3kg better off today after claim. never won at track and does take a while to train into wins. Could go well today.
Under The Eiffel: Didn’t show enough last start and previous to that was poor at Geelong in a race he should have won. 58kg looks a little harsh. Should will run well but never won at this track and only once from 15 at class.
Shout Out Loud: Another who ran ‘fairly’ last start at Caulfeild. Down 1.5kg today form that run and is suited by the extra distance. Has won 3 from 5 second up and may be set for this today. Speed maps well into it.
Danzylum: Looks outclassed on previous runs.
Sadalbari: Shown nothing this prep.
White Universe: Comes into this with some VERY strong form last prep. Has been off over a year but wins over Stoneblack, Lethal Arrow and Landridge Street and then a 3rd to December Draw stack up here today. Weighted nicely off 55.5kg and if trained on at all, will be going very close today. Loves a dead track.
Sheahan: Best suited today off the weights from the WFA-LR race down 4.5kg today. Unfortunately didn’t show anything last start and needs to find something big today.
Under The Hat: Ran on poorly first up at distance and will find it hard again today to win. Needs to find 6L that don’t seem to be there this prep.
Flyingconi: Needs a fast pace on out front. Weighted ok at but this seems too classy.
The New Boy: Ran on well last start behind Mahisara and could go well again today at weights.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 3, 4, 8, 12
Strategy: A race with no clear winner in sight which makes us look for the best weighted runner with decent form lines. White Universe has question marks around how fit he will return, but the form lines are strong and the price is value. 1.5 Units Each Way White Universe.

Caulfield Race 7
Euryale: Been off close to four months now and ended last prep quite well on wet ground. Never won at this distance and looks to be suited to slightly longer. Weighted poorly.
Goldslick: Won 4 from 7 at distance and 5 from 13 at class. Won first up last prep and finished last prep at similar distance winning in harder company. Will go close today.
Flying Hula: Won first up two preps ago. Has never won at this distance and at track (nor placed) and only once from 7 at this class. Has ability but needs longer.
Mayneda Strategy: Poor form last prep and needs to find much more today. Down 2.5kg but up to city grade. Looks outclassed but does have a good record winning once and placing three times from 6 at track.
Orchard Street: Looks outclassed today and needs a heavy ground.
Rahveel: Needs to find 2-3 lengths today to have a chance.
Ametsis: Up in class today after winning a MUCH easier race at Sale last start. Down 2kg today but has to improve.
Rose Pattern: Just keeps on running well and got the win last start in decent time at Rosehill. Down 2kg today but has never won at track or in this class. Should still go close.
Motto’s Gem: Suited by this distance but looks outclassed at weights.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 8, 9
Strategy: While we are confident that our two picks are the way to go, this is a very open race with four main chances. This may turn out to be a sit back and watch race. 1 Unit to win Tigress Joy 0.75 units to win Goldslick.

Caulfield Race 8
Outlandish lad: Ran on only fairly last start and will be going more forward today. Has ability but others look better.
General Truce: Big win last start by General Truce at Flemington on the straight in very good time. Will sit a little further forward today from barrier 1 up 1kg. Has the ability to win again.
Canali: Up 1kg today from last start and doesn’t appeal on weights.
Diplomatic Force: very interesting runner. Off 54.5kg today which is 4kg less than last start when 2.5L behind Happy Trails over 1200m and before that 2nd to Alpha Proxima. Has been off a long time but if comes back super fit and ready to rumble, has the ability to win well. Has a great first up record.
Stratcombe: Poorly weighted today up 2.5kg (1.5kg worse than general truce). Happy to avoid win betting today on this. Does enjoy the track is a positive.
Shock Value: Has ability on last prep and won 4 from 7 first up. Weighted nicely off 54kg today but has to find a length of two extra.
Cascabel: Hasn’t shown enough this prep.
Beyond Pardon: Not shown enough this prep.
Verdasco: Resuming today after a strong last prep. Doesn’t run super fast times but on an average pace can run well. Weighted nicely. Can go well.
Anise: Strong form lines with a 3rd behind Honey Flower. This form has been golden this Spring. Weighted nicely today off 54kg.
Future Solution: Never won in class and never ran at track. Previous prep just kept on finding one too good for him. Has the ability and go close today.
Big Buddie: Down 5kg today and looks weighted to win with form around beating honey flower and running 0.1L second to Sea Lord.
King Cotton: Needs to find a few lengths today. Down 7kg will help but has to improve.
Vatican: Ran well last two starts but needs to find a better run today up in class. Weighted ok.
Johnny Fiasco: Not shown enough to continue backing this prep.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 2, 5, 6, 13
Strategy: No doubt that this is the hardest race of the day with some quality form around many of the runners. The horse with the strongest form lines for us is Big Buddie who is weighted to win today. We are going to have a good go. 4 units to win on Big Buddie. 1 Unit to win Diplomatic Force. 1 Unit to win saver General Truce.

Warwick Farm Race 1
Better races today to invest money into unless you have the inside word on a horse.

Warwick Farm Race 2
Office Bearer is a very progressive horse. Won very well last start at Moonee Valley and looks up to this.

Warwick Farm Race 3
Quite a few chances in this race. Princess Layla looked unlucky last start not to win and Holy Moly was super impressive in harder company first up. The one we like and the market will tell us how she will go is Our Design. Looks suited today on previous wins.

Warwick Farm Race 4
Two main runners that you want to work around at Fiumicino and Moriarty. Disappointing to see Moriarty find one too good last start and also the run before. On form, Fiumicino at the weights should be able to win this and looks a good price.

Warwick Farm Race 5
Coup Ay Tee keeps putting in strong runs and looks suited here today off the weights and  barrier.

Warwick Farm Race 6
Big run last start by Mr Edison who got simply too far back. Hopefully sits slightly further forward today and runs on well once again. Better weighted today than others from that race. Looks value.

Warwick Farm Race 7
Ignore last start of Elusive Lad where jumped badly and simply got too far back. Back to 1000m which is more suited to the horse and will go close.

Warwick Farm Race 8
Ignore last start of A Real Prince when was lame after race. Keeps putting in strong runs and is a nice price today off 2.5L win two back.

Eagle Farm Race 5
Fire Up Fifi has been very progressive the last few motnhs. Had a nice break and should come back ready to win again., Won five of seven last prep and didn’t miss a place. Very good E/W price.

Eagle Farm Race 6
Jet Style was great last week and enjoyed the 1600m. Will run very well again today.

Morphetville Race 2
Waratone has some very strong form lines and after the last two very strong wins, will be very hard to beat today.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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