Horse Racing Form – Cranbourne – Friday 4 January 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits Cranbourne ‘Quick and Dirty’ form. It is a very average card tonight with the last three races seemingly the best quality races with some decent runners. Confidence rating for tonight is low so go smaller than usual, especially with the heat around in Melbourne today. It is a very hard thing to gauge how horses will handle the heat. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Race 6 MightyBlitz

Next Best
Race 7 She’s Ellie

Best Value
Race 8 Miss Provocative

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Cranbourne

Cranbourne Race 1
Market is your only guide in this race. Trial form is very hard to follow. Elmotino looks the best in the race on trials.
Confidence 30%

Cranbourne Race 2
A fairly average maiden race but at least we have some form to go off of. Alfal, Denison and Gas Burner would have to improve something fierce to be winning today. Bouledogue can run well on first up run but got away with murder out front so can’t have. Here to Dash a forgive run so market will guide and Lakeside Lass showed a little bit first up but nothing since. This leaves us with two key runners. Rainbow Dane has been putting in solid runs the first two runs this prep behind some handy horses in Alices Virtue and Shes Got Grunt. Will get another solid run from barrier 2 today and be hitting the line very hard. Down 1.5kg today which could be the key. The other runner is Prince Stratum. From barrier 3 may sit in a better position today, down 1kg and is the best rated horse in this race with a 2nd to Elite Elle last start in a 14 horse field good form lines.
Confidence 65%

Cranbourne Race 3
A super poor race to have a bet in. Straight away from recent records we are happy to count out Seattle Silence, Anabaa Kid and Kempside. Blistered looks to be a little up against it today and was 0.5L behind Kipsiro last start. This leaves us with 3. Set Zena is hard to rate here today. Hasn’t won at class (placed 5 from 10), only ever won a maiden more than a year ago and hasn’t finished within 2.8L last five starts. This prep has been in contry Open class races. Does look a little against it even though weighted well. Kipsiro looks the key runner with form while Statute on form three and four back is the winner. It is hard to get a real feel for who can perform the best today but if Kipsiro gets a strong run on, can win here.
Confidence 65%

Cranbourne Race 4
Guess what? Another Maiden! Let’s start by eliminating a few very average horses. Sanawatt, Doubt it, and Foreign Embassy all look up against it today on previous runs. The market is your only guide for the two first starts Becketts Groom and Prince Kilkarlen. She’s So Canny has been average as best on last two starts but previous to that very strong behind Classic Gem. Could run well but can’t be on her. Time Seeker simply forgive for first up run but can it win here today? Doubt it. Between the Lines has some solid form lines and last start ran well in average time. Barrier 6 means can get a nice position. Choisziata hard to rate here out of Shes Ellie race. Has the ability. Leaves us with two. Kingston Country showed enough second up to suggest can improve today after running well in a harder race. Deal a Heart shows the most promise with in form jockey Duric on board. Could push forward today.
Confidence 65%

Cranbourne Race 5
Onto the ‘decent’ races of the night. Start by striking Misisipi Moonshine, Man of Class and Safari who don’t seem to be up to this class at this distance. Da Pump is a slight hope but seems better suited by further. Sunstroem won a 1600m maiden race last start, this is a big step up today. The same goes for Fantasy De Fleurs who won a 1200m maiden and is up 3kg today. This leaves us with a horse that looks the winner in Numen Lumen. Barrier 5 suits and should push forward today (can run on well if slowly away also). Big chance and should be suited by the extra 300m.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2

Cranbourne Race 6
Start by striking Our Rockhampton and Makeadreamcometrue out of contention on previous runs, weights and distance. Ethicist can be forgiven for last start but hard to have today even after that. Chilean Plume doesn’t look progressive enough to step up and win today but could surprise. Fierce Command needs to find a lot more today from barrier 1. This leaves us with three main chances. Aerolink is the first and up 1.5kg today with Mc cabe on board from barrier 5, will be trying to push forward. Fairly slow winning time last start, suggest will find this a little harder. Smooth General won very well here last start. Weighted nicely again today and will try and lead from start to finish and be hard to pass. MightyBlitz has been in super form recently and will be pushing hard to the line from a good position.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 4, 6, 7, 8

Cranbourne Race 7
The race of the night. Start by striking out Tricky Boy, El Blazing Time and Friday Frenzy. Ima Nugget looks to be a nice Gelding but doesn’t look as progressive as others. Mr Bandit Country ran well first up but will need to find 2 lengths today to win. Heroic Tale blocked for run last start, will get a better run today and could win. Two clear chances for us on form. Rogue River losing a plate last start was unlucky not to win. Has been off 7 months and if returns in best form will be running on well. Should be trying to go forward and contest for lead from barrier 2. The main runner here today is She’s Ellie. HUGE first up win at Moonee Valley in a brilliant time. Up only 1.5kg today. As long as jumps well and gets to the front from barrier 10, will win.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 11

Cranbourne Race 8
A fairly open race. Strike off Leoncita, Lovernotafighter, Bonne Nuit and Holdontoyahorses. Estada ran a solid race first up and could improve today to go close. Nadhima very disappointing first up and should run better today. Belaruski from barrier 11 off this weight will find it hard to get a clear run and win. Miss Provocative is very hard to rate today. Form line seem very strong and could be value from barrier 1. Roxit is back down in class today. Barrier 13 hurts her big time today but if gets a solid run will be hitting the line hard. Gracie Louise deserves to be the favourite. Up 2.5kg today hurts but on form has every ability to win today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 7, 11

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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