Today see’s the running of the Cranbourne Cup! Yesterday at Caulfield saw a very strong day of racing. We almost got off to the dream start with Dusty Star at $15 gamely staying on for second with the winner jumping out of the ground and improving 4L over Dusty. From there we were up and down until our best bet of the day in Buffering won easy. The Herbert Power was won by our European Special as a speculation bet Sharwdani at $16s.
Let’s hope we can improve on yesterday and pick a few winners. I have to say, the form today does look very solid and I am feeling fairly confident about a number of races. There are a fair few ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ with the form especially with so many first up runners but these are the risks you take to get the value to become a profitable better over the long term. After all, the one we speced on top at $70 on Friday evening was a first up runner who had trained on! Good luck, back a few winners and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 4 Spelldancer
Best Value
Race 10 – Snitzel’s Choice
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Cranbourne Race 1
A pretty handy maiden class race with three horses coming into this with strong form lines.
The first is Elusive Leone. Boss taking the ride. Ran a very strong 1000m behind Flash of Doubt over the 1000m on a dead track and was very unlucky not to break through first up this prep. Suspect hasn’t trained on as much as you would want on that run but will surely go close here.
Valrouz has some super form lines. Has been off more than a year which is always a big issue but when you have form 1.3L behind Pied a Terre, you can have a holiday with Rhonda and Katut for that effort. Williams on board and in fine form right now. Barrier 1 suits for the run.
Finally, At the tap is one that is very hard to place. 3.3L behind All Too Hard who we know just won the $1million race yesterday. Also lost a plate that day. The key for me is that Williams jumped off to ride Valrouz.
Confidence 80%
Cranbourne Race 2
Timely Truce looks suited here today but the 60kg will be awfully hard to hold. As we saw with More Joyous yesterday, weight can hurt runs. Timely Truce was impressive winning his maiden second up this prep and ran on well two back when 1.3L off Jimando. Should run close today.
Times are solid for Scapolo who is over from New Zealand. Won a maiden easily by 3L first up in good time on a slow track and could produce better here.
Tiryns good first up win in maiden company and solid last start. Needs to improve to win here.
Bay Flyer’s form lines seem fairly solid. Ran 1.8L behind Magnier who ran 2nd to Lankan Rupee on it’s previous start. Does need to find another length or two here but has ability.
Falcent comes into this after a very strong first up run behind Lankan Rupee who took Snitzland all the way yesterday and Falcen then won first the next race from start to finish by 2L. Williams on board is the bonus once again. Issue is the weight.
Confidence 75%
Cranbourne Race 3
Turnitup has some HUGE form lines coming into this. Beating home Exceptionally last start over 2000m, you know how good that is. Before that 2,2,2,3 in races MUCH classier than these. Has a strong 2/2 from 6 record at distance. Big issue is never won first up. Will go very close weighted very well today.
Jungle Ruler just keeps going backwards.
Deliver The Dream is a horse that showed some quality last year but has failed to train on this season. Looks like they just can’t get her right.
Festina Lente has some quality runs under her belt and comes into this class of race weighted to win. 54kg is crazy for this class of horse in this race. Only issue may be the gate as she could get stuck for a run. Won nicely first up also is a big bonus.
Good Value was just that last start at Mornington but after getting blocked for a run on a very very slowly run 1200m couldn’t get home. Williams will give a solid ride and on best form can go close.
Confidence 70%
Cranbourne Race 4
Jetta is stepping back to a class of race that is very winable. Ran second behind Rock Princess on Heavy two back in a Fm-89 and steps back to FM-68 company today. 60kg will certainly be an issue but does have the ability to run close here today.
Spelldancer comes into this with some very strong form lines. 0.2L behind Chateau Margaux 4 runs back over 1600m and 1.5L before that. Got up in the distances and class runs and just got out of it later in the prep. Huge step down in class and will be very very strong today.
Winay Wayna a year off, will need to have grown a fifth leg.
Spin The Bottle not the worst in this race and could run well.
Confidence 80%
Cranbourne Race 5
Consecrate will run strongly once again but will find it hard from barrier 2 to get out once again.
Sort This Out hurting by the weights today but on previous runs will run a solid race.
Not sure what to make of Consul General but can’t have it here.
Minute by Minute showed huge improvement last start going more forward. Will be harder today in this class but should go well.
Speedy Graphito is back down in class big time here today. Won very well second up and then good 5th 1.5L at Flemington. Barrier 16 the only major issue.
Confidence 75%
Cranbourne Race 6
Dubosc has some solid form lines from first three runs in Australia. Has been within 0.2L or won in those three runs. Go close once again.
St Mark comes in with a big chance but suspect will be held out again.
Chappell didn’t show enough last start.
Ayushman showed a fair bit last start but will need to show more today.
Daneson a strong 2000m 0.2 2nd last start in a good time. Down 3kg and was blocked for run that run. Go strong.
Finally, Kimurasun showed enough last start that can produce a win here.
Confidence 75%
Cranbourne Race 7
Kulgrinda comes into this race with the best form in the race. Ignore last start second when Dream Face was much better weighted and look to two back when beating Stirling Grove who finished third on Saturday in a strong race. Will go well on weight in this class. Only issue is barrier.
General Truce is as game as the day is long. Up 2kg here and will go close but suspect will find one too good for him once again.
Obsidian Dragon strong first up run and could run well again here today.
Broken super last four starts. WIll go very close again today as long as gets a run. Barrier to suit.
I don’t want to do it but we may just have to give up on Galbraith now. He is oh so game but if he fails here today, this may be his last race.
The Minister certainly hugely up in class here today but has won well last two starts and could find another strong run with 54kg on back.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 4
Cranbourne Race 8
Got to wonder what Group 1 winning Unusual Suspect is doing here in Australia. Seems to have simpl just lost all it’s class and should be retired. Now that i’ve said that, it is bound to win.
Bagman was super impressive winning last two starts and should go close here once again. This is harder class we have to remember and he carries a large weight.
Ignore last start for Streets Away and look to two back with Hall on board. Much better on this horse compared to Oliver IMO. WIll go very close here today. Barrier 1 to get the run of the race and will be pushing hard late.
Miss Artistic has a lot of quality but just isn’t showing enough recently. Will go close but can’t see winning.
Streaky Fella has a lot of class but does look like needs to go to the yard now.
Finiguerra meets Bagman 2.5kg better off today. If gets a better run could be closer at the end.
Midnight Martini does have the quality to run a very solid race here today and go close.
Destiny’s Kiss is a massive chance here today. Only loss in last 6 runs was a 2nd to Bianmick who is in VERY fine form recently. Won last start by 6L and this is a step up in class.
Eruptious needs to improve here.
Vatuvei is an interesting runner. Has the ability to go close here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 3, 11, 15
Cranbourne Race 9
Spirit of Many comes into this off a very good run last start over the distance. Down in class here today and will run well.
Wolfofwallstreet will need to improve going up in distance here today to be in this.
Charged and Ready seems held off this weight.
I really liked the previous run of Cosentino and comes into this today with a big chance.
Bia Diamond up in class but down 3kg today. Can run a solid race but barrier 11 makes it hard.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 3, 6
Cranbourne Race 10
Handsame As is in this on best form. Weighted nicely and should run strongly.
Privately was very well backed in it’s last three starts for one win. This is a class that it can certainly win in and moody/nolen combo always good. Should go close.
I love a good Darwin raider and Snitzel’s Choice has some nice form lines to speak of. Keep safe.
New York is well weighted in this race. Ignore first up run and look three back. Will go close here.
Finally, Euphorbia has won two in a row this prep after training on strongly. has to improve once again to win here but can go well.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 4, 5, 9, 11, 15
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