Horse Racing Form – Derby Day – Flemington & Rosehill – Saturday 3 November

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to our Derby Day write up. We had a massive night last night at Moonee Valley with 6 winners on top and a second pick winning from 8 races. All of these winners were over $4 with the highest a $15 winner. Let’s try and continue it today. We have some great memories from the years attending this day. Our greatest memory involves a horse that is competing in the same race, the last of the day, McClintock. We had been following a horse named Centennial Park for a while and were expecting a big run from it in 2008 Derby Day. Standing at the 150m mark, McClintock had 6L on us and we thought it was all over. Centennial produced a massive final 150m and got it by the tip of a nose in a photo at a very nice price. McClintock is in career best form at the moment and is a chance in that very same race as an 8 year old. As always, use our form to complement your form and thoughts for the day. More importantly, enjoy the day and good luck on the punt.

*Racecard*
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.

Best Bet
Race 7 Streama

Next Best
Race 9 Fawkner

Best Value
Race 4 Fire Thunderbolt
Race 2 Dame Claire

Best Lay
Race 5 Glass Harmonium
Race 6 Subiaso (to place)
Race 9 Bold Glance (to place)

Betting Specials
Betstar is offering double fixed odds for Group 1s from 8am in the morning. If you are new to Betstar, use the referral code 23703. With the fields today, you would be mad not to be using up the Double Fixed odds on offer.

TAB VIC are guaranteeing a $4million Quaddie poll. While you may think that playing with the TAB is the way to go today, Sportingbet are offering best exotics payouts so if somehow the other totes pay more than the VIC, you will get that payout on your quaddie.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington Race 1
Tatra: Given a very average ride last start, A simple forgive run and comes into this much better at the weights today. 1600m seems to be a better distance than 1800m for the horse also. Beat Proverb two runs back and meets the horse 2.5kg better off today.
Pronto Pronto: Win two back was off a very easy pace and was pretty much handed the race. Last start was exposed as expected. Will run well today better off at the weights on Al Aneed but will be up against it.
Proverb: Solid win over 1900m last start and with form around Dear Demi etc is quite a good chance today. Big issue is the loss to Tatra and meets today worse at the weights.
Al Aneed: Super win last start in a lesser quality race. Very progressive horse and should run very well today.
Lunar Rise: A horse with a lot of ability. Finished close to It’s a Dundeel two back and then was outclassed over the 2000m. Off previous runs this does look winable today.
Crystal Web: Blocked for run last start and does look progressive with great breeding. The big issue is the quality of field. Suspect will be found out in this field.
Steep: Outclassed last two starts and would need to improve a few lengths to win today.
Union Gap: A huge run from last at Flemington last start.. looks very progressive and meets others nicely at the weights. Will appreciate the up in distance.. the big issue is that there are a few in this race who have beaten him home.
Right to Roam: Run at course over 1800m two back was very strong behind Philippi. Wasn’t suited last start out the front and from barrier 2 will take a sit. Could surprise.
Real Stolle: Ran on nicely behind A Time for Julia but needs to find many lengths to win here.
Strategy: 1 unit on the win for Tatra with a saver bet on Lunar Rise.Z
Confidence: 70%

Flemington Race 2
Gatewood: Got the cash for us at Geelong by 0.8L and this race will be ran in completely different fashion. Gatewood proved to be a quality horse with Melbourne Cup ambitions and from barrier 3 will get a very handy run.
Tanby: Was very lucky to win last start and is up 2.5kg today. Will run strongly once again and will need to sit near the back of the field from barrier 13. Looks to be in best form so could go close.
Permit: Hasn’t come closer than within 1.8L this prep but does have a 4 win from 8 record at distance. Will produce a nice run but happy to be on others here today.
Kelinni: He is very progressive. Some very solid runs at the start of prep which resulted in a Group 3 win two runs back over 2400m. Ran 2nd to Glencadam Gold last start and comes back here up 5kg. Rawiller riding is a big negative for us and barrier 9 will be a slight issue to slot in. Has every chance but needs to produce a career best run.
Ibicenco: Was very poor first up at Moonee Valley and has never won second up from 3 starts and at distance from 6 starts. Happy to be against. Higher quality race.
Excluded: Ignore run two back and his form is rock hard. Big run behind Shahwardi at Caulfield and looks very well treated with 55.5kg. Won last run here at Flemington and loved the extra 400m last start.
Reuben Percival: Ran quite well behind Vatuvei at Moonee Valley last week but this is a much harder race. He will go close again but others stronger.
Exceptionally: Very poor run at Geelong. Excluded has had her number all prep and keeps finding a few too good. Looks like she will once again.
Dame Claire: Ignore last start when back down to 2000m. Dame Claire is a horse crying out for 2500m. Three back won over 2400m in a lesser company race for us at big odds, then last start should have beat Tanby home at course and distance when suffered some fairly heavy interference. Last start still ran on strongly when was ridden to lead (not that type of horse). Will take a sit from barrier 6 today and is massive value.
Fictional Account: Ignore last start and look to two back form. Can run on strongly today and will get a very easy ride from barrier 1.
Sabrage: Can’t have on previous runs. Not up to this class this prep.
Dare to Dream: A very poor ride last start can be forgiven. Look to run two back behind Mourayan who is a quality horse over the 2000m. Barrier 10, will probably sit as far back today but being that far back at Flemington isn’t ever a disadvantage with so much ground to let down. Should run strongly.
Peal of Bells: On previous form is outclassed but could surprise with a nice run.
Strategy: 1 unit each way on Dame Claire, 1 unit to win on Excluded and 1 unit on Gatewood as a saver.
Confidence: 80%

Flemington Race 3
Dear Demi: She just keeps finding a few too good for her. Her previous runs and breeding suggest she is calling out for a very long straight and longer distance so the up to 2000m is helpful. Weighted nicely today and could run very well.
Mama’s Choice: On previous runs is outclassed today with a big question mark over the 2000m
Donna Cattiva: Has gone backwards this prep. did get injured last start also.
Zydeco: The price on this horse is amazing for a maiden winner. Are they going to try and push a little further forward today? Finished 1.8L behind Maybe Discreet two back and 2.8L Commanding Jewel three back. Has a huge burst of speed and will be coming no doubt about it. The big issue is how far back they get. Weighted nicely and will go close but at the price, might be worth taking a sit against.
Transonic: Two solid wins in much lesser class and then ran on nicely in equal class last start over 2000m. Needs to find a few more lengths to compete here.
Maraatib: Will run a solid race but can’t win a maiden so can’t win here.
Tyanna: A very strong front running win at Bendigo last start. With the two main hopes expected to give her 3-6L on the home turn, she could pinch this one off the low weight. Issue with the distance.
Kate: Not shown anything since coming over from New Zealand. Happy to be against.
Madam Archer: Won a maiden nicely but was outclassed last start and will be agian today.
La Zuma: Seems to be wanting the distance but is outclassed in this race
Zuccotto: Outclassed
Ten Black: Outclassed
Strategy: Dear Demi is the class runner and 1 unit to win with a saver bet on Tyanna is the play. Fairly large chance that this will be a no bet race for us.
Confidence: 65%

Flemington Race 4
Sizzling: Sat further back than expected last start over the 1200m and came home late. Has the ability and should be suited by the longer straight today.
Hidden Warrior: Big front running victory at the Valley last week. This is a step up in class and will be beaten home by a few.
Fire Thunderbolt: Super effort first up. Interestingly, he lost a plate during that run which suggests he would have won. Loves FLemington winning there last prep. Will be getting a good run from barrier 1.
Shelford: Looks outclassed here today on weights and first up run.
Lankan Rupee: A strong run last start and suspect the longer straight at Flemington will be of disadvantage for this front runner. Will be there at the line.
Shamexpress: Has some strong form lines on recent runs behind Epaulette and Lady of Harrods. Has been put up at an outrageous price today and will be coming hard late.
Stars in the Sky: Outclassed in this race
Knight Exemplar: Has been very strong this prep. First up 0.3L loss to Rebel Dane when losing a plate and jumping awkwardly. Rebel Dane won in amazing fashion on the weekend. Last start 0.1L to Jolie Bay who comes into this race with some very strong form lines. Will have trained on nicely since that run and will be fresh and ready to go. Barrier 6 gives him a good speed map into the race and to date hasn’t finished more than 0.5L off winning in four starts.
Snitzerland: Another super win last start. Barrier 9 means she will have to work a little harder early but that is fine. Will be set and ready to go on the Flemington straight but like last start it won’t be easy.
Jolie Bay: Has won two of her last three with Better Than Ready coming home very strong to beat her last start in a super fast run race. This race could sort itself out the same way. Only issue is barrier 2 and getting clear.
Nechita: Good win first up and easy second up but was found out over the 1400m. Simply, she was outclassed. She will run on strongly again today, there is no doubt, but the price looks a little short off that last run.
Strategy: 1 units to win with Betstar double fixed odds Fire Thunderbolt, 1 unit to place and then 0.5 unit to win on Knight Exemplar.
Confidence: 70%

Flemington Race 5
Winchester: Another 9th for Winchester last start. Ran on strongly from the back but is outclassed again here today.
Glass Harmonium: Shock, horror! He missed the start in the Cox Plate and finished near the back of the field. Outclassed today but if jumps well could be there near the finish.
Alcopop: Super run last start and back to the 2000m needs to find 1L on Ocean Park which just isn’t there. Could complete the exacta.
December Draw: Ignore last start. Will get a much easier run today and run on solidly. Should finish in the top 3.
Prairie Star: Missed the start and was very disappointing. Looking for further distance than the 2000m it seems.
Back in Black: Given every chance in Geelong. Up in weight today no chance.
Ocean Park: Super Cox Plate win. Has won 3 in a row in Australia and is weighted even better than the others in the race. Simply just wins.
Zabeelionaire: Weighted out of this. Ran on strongly in the Caulfield cup.
Strategy: This would normally be a no bet race at the prices but with double fixed odds giving us over $2 for Ocean Park with Betstar, we will be happy to take it.
Confidence: 90%

Flemington Race 6
It’s a Dundeel: Ignore last start at Moonee Valley where was given a poor ride and made to go 7 wide from the 500m mark and cover way too much ground. Will have a much easier time at Flemington today, be given a good ride down to the 300m mark and produce as expected from a quality horse like he is.
Jimando: Ignore last start and could run well here today. Could be a first four chance.
Honorius: Keeps producing solid runs and is certainly in this race. Has to find an extra length today or hope for others to lose a length.
Super Cool: Got the run of the race at Moonee Valley and didn’t have to do any work until the final 200m. Has a big chance here today on ratings.
Hvasstan: A big win last start and needs to be ridden for luck again today. On ratings is out of this but we all know how they can be blown out of the window in these races. Boss will give him a good ride again.
Fiveandahalfstar: has been winning much easier races than this but did win very well last start. Needs to improve today.
Escado: Needs to find a few more lengths.
Electric Fusion: Super progressive gelding. Does seem to be outclassed today but has the turn of foot to be there at the end.
Subiaso: A nice run last start. Needs to find much more though today.
Bullion Express: Outclassed.
Malabar Man: Nice run last start but seems outclassed here.
Costa Nova: Outclassed
Our Desert Warrior: Outclassed
Nisos: Outclassed
Rawnaq: Outclassed
Batistuta: Outclassed
Strategy: It’s a Dundeel will be the one we want to be with here at double fixed odds on Betstar. We will be putting a saver bet on Super Cool (enough $ so that if Super Cool does win, we break even for the race).
Confidence: 90%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 4

Flemington Race 7
Streama: A nice 1.3L win over the 1400m last start at Cualfield. Is best over longer distances so the step up to 1600m suits Streama more than any of her previous opposition. Won 2 from 3 at distance.
Secret Admirer: Hasn’t been fully disgraced this prep but just keeps finding a few too good for her. Ignore last start and look to previous runs. Will run another solid race but needs to find an extra length to win.
Yosei: She runs super races off the low weights but up to 57kg here looks held. 0 wins 1 place from 8 starts at Flemington is a big worry.
Red Tracer: Good win first up but was well held last start at Caulfield behind Streama and Pear Tart. Up to 1600m doesn’t seem to suit breeding with 0 wins 1 place from 4 starts at distance.
Skyerush: Jumping off her here today. Been on the previous two starts and she simply finds a way to get beaten. Will appreciate the Flemington straight but doesn’t have the ability this prep to pass the top of the market runner today.
Pear Tart: Progressed nicely last start. Never run over this distance but breeding suggests will enjoy the extra 200m. Will enjoy the longer straight and go close today.
Raspberries: Outclassed today. Suspect to sit closer to the front than last start.
Invest: Outclassed on both runs this prep.
Shannara: Outclassed on how she has returned this prep.
Oasis Bloom: Last two runs have been strong. Both have big form lines with Star of Giselle running in easy on the last race of Cox Plate day. Will be hitting the line hard.
Soft Sand: Have you lost enough cash backing this horse yet? Gets too far back and strangely today goes up 1kg while Pear Tart, Streama etc all down 1kg. Simply on weights can’t win.
Appearance: Outclassed.
Full of Spirit: Not shown enough since coming over from New Zealand to back here this prep.
Strategy: Happy to stick Streama out here today from the front. 1 unit to win (On Betstar at double fixed odds) and 2 units to place.
Confidence: 85%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 4, 6, 10

Flemington Race 8
Tiger Tees: Very strong to the line first up and was outclassed last start. Has the ability to win today but needs to produce something at the top of his range. Interestingly, Has won his last four races on Good tracks and lost last two on dead.
Golden Archer: Just keeps on producing nice runs. Looks outclassed here today over the 1200m at Flemington off the weight but will be game to the line and run well. Hasn’t been more than 1.8L off in last five runs and has won 3 from 4 at Flemington.
Pampelonne: Disappointing run last start. Has won 4 from 5 at distance and will produce another solid run, but needs to improve once again.
Rolling Pin: has been running some super races recently winning two of last three in Group 2 and group 3 class and 1.5L behind Fat Al in Group 1. Has the ability to win.
Spirit of Boom: Three strong runs this prep. Will produce another but never won at Flemington.
Howmuchdoyouloveme: Super easy win at Caulfield first up and will continue on from that run. The big issue we have is the price today down the straight. I have seen many a horse get lost travelling this 1200m straight at Flemington who looked like morals before the race.
Outlandish Lad: Decent record at distance and first up. Only 1 win from 4 at track and on previous form needs to find a few lengths.
Miss Marx: Super horse with a lot of ability. Down 3kg today but up in class.. will be coming late with a huge burst of speed. Will be hard to hold out.
Chasm: Weighted nicely today but he is best over further distance. Getting a little old but if trained on will produce a nice run.
Latin News: Outclassed on previous runs
Bolton: Too short for him.
Fontelina: Seven months off. Last prep was finishing infront or just behind horses like Said Com and Wild and Proud. Has the ability but needs to improve further today.
Strategy: Golden Archer is a horse that goes well down the straight and will handle the strong tempo out front. If you are looking for an each way bet here then he looks like the horse you want. Rolling Pin is questionable back to the 1200m but can handle a very strong tempo on previous runs up in Sydney and is big overs. The price on Howmuchdoyouloveme is where we want it, around the $2.30 mark on Betfair and that will be our play for the race. We don’t expect there to be HUGE backing late for HMDYLM in this race due to the quality so you should be able to get a nice price right up to the jump. 2 units for the win.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 4, 6, 9

Flemington Race 9
Wall Street: Poor first up record and only won once from 8 at this distance. Hasn’t won since 2010.
Bold Glance: Form lines are nice but won’t hold up in this class. Looks outclassed.
Fawkner: Won 4 from 6 at track including last two starts at course and distance in this class. Down 2.5kg from last run.
Free Wheeling: Weighted to win off 54.5kg. Has huge ability but interesting 1 win 1 place from 6 at distance and never been to Flemington. Has been very good the last five runs and will produce another solid run today.
Dusty Star: Poor track record but was a very good run last start getting run down. Barrier 10 an issue but will be going forward once again and look the winner nearing the line.
McClintock: Down 2kg from second up run that was solid. Stays on the days and has the ability to hold these horses out. This does seem a step up in class today from last start.
Morant: Will produce another solid run but barrier 1 is a massive disadvantage here.
Renewed Vitality: Looks outclassed.
Strategy: McClintock looks well suited by the weights and coming to the 100m should be out front having set a nice tempo but we feel Fawkner will be swooping and take him. 3 units Fawkner and 1 unit McClintock.
Confidence: 85%
Quaddie leg four: 4, 5, 8

Rosehill Race 5
Stratana is returning from four months off the track and has a good first up record. produced some very solid runs last start and comes into this off 54kg. 3 wins 4 places from 8 at distance and 3 places from 3 starts at class. 2 wins 2 places at track. If trained on slightly, should win this.

Rosehill Race 6
Merlin Mustang ran a huge race last start. Down in class today and down to the 1500m will suit. Will be hard to pass. Keith’s Legacy looks like the main threat.

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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