Horse Racing Form – Flemington and Hawkesbury – Saturday 5 May 2012

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to the weekends form. Last week was our best ever. We were very confident as we mentioned. This week is almost the opposite with not much quality around. Follow our confidence factor and as always, choose your bets carefully, don’t just bet every race. We will be updating our tips as the day goes depending on how the tracks are racing so please remember to follow us on twitter @TheProfitsComAu.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=35327&raceid=308763&plusday=0
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington

Race 1
Pillar of Creation comes into this up 2.5kg from a great run on Heavy last start here. This is a good horse but it keeps starting slowly and racing Greenly in races. You would hope it had improved and goes well here.
Textiles meets Pillar 2kg better off and ran 0.5L behind it. Goes well here on times.
Tennesse Wills looks to be a class below this race on times and recent runs.
Dazzler ran quite well first up in an ok time over 1300m. Could be big value here.
Confidence Factor – 80%

Race 2
A pretty crazy race when you consider the different weights on horses.
Roses In The Glen started its career well but would have had to have trained on heavily to win off this weight. May go close but think weight is just too much.
Vain Attraction was brilliant in it’s last race blocked and weiving through the field. You would expect Flemington to suit it but 60kg is a fairly hefty weight.
There has been some mail around for Manhattan Maid but I couldn’t back it here.
Peninsula Dane ran VERY well last up at a good price. Form line is very sound and goes close here.
1kg worse off than last run win over Peninsula Dane, horse with a lot of potential
Roxit comes into this much better off on the weights than last start vs Vain attraction. Win won’t shock.
Bonaria is in similar shoes being better off on the weights than Vain.. but seems to still not be in this.
Confidence Factor – 60%

Race 3
Maythehorsebemagic being scartched here really limits the betting in this race with Almodovar the short priced fav.
Almodovar was 6L clear of anything else in this race last start and the only thing you could even give a chance to overturn the form is King of Desire off it’s last up win in much worse company.
Confidence Factor – 95%

Race 4
Testascana has been eating everyones money in the last few runs. Coming into this at 56.5kg, He will go close once again here. Seems more suited by a dead track if that’s what we get to race on today. Also much better off on 1600 than last start 2000m.
Great first up run by Elusive King. Missed the start and ran home strongly. Up an extra 200m and weighted fairly, he will hopefully position closer from barrier 4 and run home strongly.
Eraset is 0 wins 4 places from 9 at Flemington and seems to not be suited at the course. 1 win 3 places from 16 in class also tells us that Eraset just keeps finding one or two too good. Looking elsewhere.
We can’t understand why Shenzhou Steeds is so short here. Has some decent times overall but is 0/0 from 2 at Flemington. This looks to be too hard for it.
Cabeza was 2L closer to Magnifique Soleil than Shenzhou Steeds last up and comes into this 1kg better off so seems a better option if looking for value. Has won at track but 0 wins 9 starts at class is concerning.
Kallogg is an interesting runner back to 1600m. Last 3 runs at Flemington have been quality and could surprise.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 5
Rough Deal comes into this race really well weighted. Down 4.5kg from last start in better company, could run ok.
Cavallo Nero has a good formline coming into this race. Winning on slow last up and previous to that a nice win over 1100 on dead. This horse comes into the race with little weight on it’s back. Should be suited by the up in distance and Flemington track.
Xavi may run well but too many ‘mabeys’ on it’s form.
Toned ran a great race last start over the 1200. Has won at the 1400 twice before and ran very well at Flemington last start. Mallyon on board is a big bonus in our eyes and is well weighted.
Don’t discount Cross of Gold. Last run out there was a slow tempo on. Will go well with a faster tempo.
Hot Lover has won two of it’s last three races but those two wins were in much lesser class at non-metro races. This seems to be a big step up. Should go more forward than run two back. Could go close off weights.
Club Command will be going forward to try and lead this race up. Resumed ok back in lesser class and comes back to Flemington where it ran well in it’s 2nd run every. Times seem to be against it here including outside barrier.
Finally, Cash Bound is a very interesting runner. Ignore last start and then the horse looks well placed.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 6
Highly doubt Mr O’Ceirin will be in this so doing form without it due to run 2 days back.
Deep Cove comes into this race weighted very well. With 51kg on it’s back, ran well over longer distances last start and could run well here.
Surpremacy is one of the most interesting runners here. Has been building up to this run you feel with it’s last 4 runs being at Flemington. Up to the perfect distance and comes into this with 51kg on it’sback which is just insane! Will be hard to beat for sure.
Montgomery is well suited by weights here. Get the feeling one or two will be too good for it though.
Chasse is the class runner here having placed in 11 of last 12 matches winning 2 of last 5 starts. Hasn’t been able to break through yet at Flemington with 7 places from 10 starts is the major issue with 56kg.
Laristan comes into this 2kg better off than the 1.3L loss to Playwright last start with Mallyon on board. Could be big value.
Finally, Playwright comes into this off the same weight as it’s last 0.8L win. Barrier 12 is a bit of a concern but if goes hard early and takes lead could go all the way again.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 7
Chieftain Jack ran on strongly last start 2.5L loss behind Zabeelionaire. Looks suited off the same weights.
Dunford is an interesting runner. Has run some decent times in it’s runs in much better company. Down to a reasonable 53kg after claim, has a shot here!
Doctor Hush didn’t run well last up. If you forgive that run it has a chance here.
Soros comes into this race very short. I personally can’t see why it is so short. Happy to risk it.
I Feel Good was $3.80 fav 1.5KG up in a harder race last start. Hung Out and needed a vet exam after a poor run an comes into it here at a very backable price. Could be the value of the race for sure.
Finally we look at Compelled. Ignore last start and you have to think Compelled has a chance.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 8
Star Of Giselle comes into this race off a brilliant 3L win last start. Suffers a 4kg raise in weights down in grade here. Runs well at Flemington and will be hard to stop.
Tigress Joy is an interesting runner here. Comes into this 6kg better off than Star from last start. Was blocked for run and slowly away last start. Could run very well.
Finally, Rock Hit is an interesting runner. Ignore last start in much harder class and Rock Hit has a good shot here.
Confidence Factor – 80%

Hawkesbury

Race 1
Malavio is an interesting runner. If there is a very fast pace on here, seems like the horse is suited by that after winning in 1:08.7 over 1200. Had a nice spell and should be ready for the step up.
Shoot Thru Blu has the ability to win easy here. Ran a 56.1 over 1000 at the start of this prep. For some reason has been getting further back in running recently but off 55kg and barrier 4, should be more forward today.
Fox drops down in class but up 3.5kg. The horse hasn’t won this prep and has some ok times but others seem better here.
Spectacular Iam takes a step down in class here but should run very well. Off 58kg, has some massively fast times over 1100 to it’s name.
Confidence Factor – 60%

Race 2
We are very interested in this race. We want to point out a play here. Two runs back Diamond Earth was 5L clear with 100m to go and just simply died on it’s run. This could happen again so if you want, put in a $1.01-$1.05 lay on Betfair.
There are quite a few ‘impressive’ horses starting here but really, if you are wanting to back something then Diamond Earth is the way to go. Not really that keen this race but Diamond Earth seems the only way to go.
Confidence Factor – 50%

Race 3
Beltane will run well but think it finds one or two too good.
Thumbtacks is well weighted and running well but just not getting the win.
Do you think looks to be not running good enough this prep.
Slick Sniper looks to be weighted too harshly here.
Next The Universe comes into this well. Some decent runs recently, only concern is a fast pace expected. May surprise and be suited to this.
Samui Lad can be forgiven for not liking the ground last up. As long as there is a dead or good track, will run very well and be hard to chase down.
Haulton ran a good 0.2L second to Samui Lad last start and beat it by 0.2L the run before. Most importantly comes into this race 0.5kg better off. Barrier 16 is a major disadvantage though.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 4
Easier races to bet in. Maximus Gladiator and Charing Cross seem to be the two with biggest chances.

Race 5
Certainly don’t discount Alcancia at a big price. 1 win 1 place from 3 starts in class and ran 3L away in higher class last start after slowly away. Could go close.
Miss Marx ran well last start but feeling is that it’s outclassed at this weight.
Pontinana shouldn’t be taken lightly. Ran 1.5L behind Hurtle Myrtle in FM-GP2 4 runs back. Has been spelling and has 1/2 from 3 first up record. Will run well.
Ignore Rose of Peace last start against Atlantic Jewel. Before that won at $101 in similar class on a VERY fast time on a slow track. Don’t discount
The class runner of the race here is Ladys Angel. Ran 1L 3rd in a Group 1 last start. does gain 5kg on it’s back but looks well suited here.
Sophie’s Spirit ran well first up over 1200. Runs better 2nd up and if dead track, even better on that. Will enjoy the extra 100m in race.
Screen has been spelling for nearly 6 months now. Comes into this race with a 3/1 from 6 first up record and won 5/3 from 16 at distance. Can win this.
More Strawberries is all class. Runs well 2nd up.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 6
Fast Clip won very well two back and ran a very nice 5th behind More Joyous after that. Seems like it has been unfairly weighted through with 59kg here. Will go VERY close. Barrier 2 suits big time!
Western Symbol has been in a roll lately. Winning it’s last three runs, will run well again here.
Star of Octagonal has been putting in nice runs recently. Expect another bold run.. Will be there at the end for sure.
Wazn is resuming. With 3/2 from 6 at distance, 1/1 from 3 at class and 1/2 from 4 at first up, comes in with valid stats to win this.
Alma’s Fury meets Fast Clip 4kg better off.
Finally, Saint Encosta is an intresting runner coming back from Perth. Coul run a very sneaky good race.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 7
Some very good horses in this race including Pied A Terre but you can only come to one conclusion, Landing wins this. Barrier 7, Rawiller onboard, 57kg and race distance, all suit for a good fast paced time. Will be WAY too strong.
Confidence Factor – 95%

Race 8
Flyingconi looks suited here. Has won first up and has won 2 and placed once from 6 at distance. Has run some very strong times over 1200 and 1400.
Turf Hero was great last start. Ran a good race and comes into this very well.
Mental is awefully short here for a horse who hasn’t put down a decently run time in it’s last 5 starts. Pace will be on and it will be tested.
Ignore first up run of Flying Empress and focus on the previous runs. If produces best can run well here.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

Leave a Reply