Horse Racing Form – Flemington and Rosehill – Saturday 15 December 2012

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Flemington. Our Moonee Valley best bet streak was broken by a half-head! Onwards and upwards for today with a very fine card at Flemington and also a nice card at Rosehill. There is value to be had in almost every race today. Expect many a favourite to be beat! As always, we hope your form matches up to ours. Good luck and happy punting!

Flemington Racecard
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.

Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 Big Buddie

Next Best
Flemington Race 4 Melba

Best Value
Flemington Race 8 City of Song

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington Race 1
Spot On Maggie: All things considered she was rather disappointing last start. Down in class today but she does meet some very handy horses today. Off 57kg, looks to be a very good chance but will need to find a lot more than last start.
Vibrant Rouge: Strong win first up after jumping badly and being blocked for run at Moonee Valley. Off the same weight today up in class, will be coming hard to the line for sure, just a question if she is classy enough for these.
Empress Zakynthos: Didn’t seem to be suited to a fast 950m race last start at the valley when up in class. Down in class today but still a little harder than what she is used to. This is the besting material and she may find the straight a little too long.
Miss Mazzeo: Good win in much lesser company last start at Cranbourne. On previous form has some ability but needs to find much more today. Weighted poorly.
Jolie Blonde: 8 months off with some handy form last prep. Must have trained on significantly to place today.
Alice’s Virtue: Doesn’t look good enough to win today off this weight in this class.
Black Booty: Has ability and Boss on board is a positive, but couldn’t win lesser races in the country this prep. Big step up today.
Deeming: Strange first up distance. Looks outclassed.
La Tikka Rosa: Well bread Moody/Nolen combo horse. Hard to rate off first two starts with 4 months off, but has ability.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: With the scratching of our best value runner And Rock, we are unsure if this will be a race where we get involved. It does look a race of two with Vibrant Rogue the better pick. Start small. 1.5 units Vibrant Rouge 0.4 unit saver Spot On Maggie.

Flemington Race 2
Euryale: Ran on strongly last start at Caulfield, but seemed to be looking for a longer distance race. Up to 1600m today may be better suited, but still harshly treated with 60kg and no claim. Has the ability.
Crucial: Down in class today after 1.8L 6th to Cabernet last start and is actually 0.5kg better off at the weights after the claim. Has taken a while to progress this prep but seems to be well enough back in class at a track which suits swoopers to be in with a chance. The wetter the track, the better for her.
Secret Liaison: Keeps on surprising us. Beat home Bia Diamond last start who has since placed (not won) once again. Form lines are a little iffy as nothing behind has won since and this seems a step up in class again. Harshly treated by weights and back to 1600m but you can’t discount.
Flying Hula: Never won or placed second up and is a horse that prefers the 2500m rather than 1600m.
Orchard Street: Can’t win on previous three runs this prep.
Rahveel: Disappointing last start when starting a $6.50 runner (strange price). Can’t back today.
Mabsam: Ignore last start in harder company and look to previous run. Will enjoy a wetter track today and the 1620m distance. Hopefully gets away well today and off 52.5kg looks one of them to beat. Loves the track.
Kukla: Progressive type who ran second to Meidung two back and then won next start. Weighted nicely today but this is a step up for the horse. Has ability.
Kasmaher: Weighted much better today and will be suited by the swooping track but needs to find an extra 1-2L today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: A few chances in this race with the two stand outs in Mabsam and Crucial. 1.5 units Mabsam 1 unit Crucial to win.

Flemington Race 3
Chasse: Back up to his best distance, the 2000m. Goes well at the track and especially the distance. On previous runs will go very close today.
Macedonian: Didn’t show enough last start, has never won at distance or second up and only once in 21 starts at class. Others better here today.
Eraset: Never won at this distance and going too poor this prep.
Turnitup: Been disappointing this prep. Has ability and could surprise today but 5 starts no wins at track.
Doctor Fremantle: Slowly Away the last four starts. If somehow jumps well today can go close. Up 1kg from last start is a slight issue. Will have every chance with the long straight.
Muirfield: Ran on nicely last start at distance but still ended 3L away. Weighted the same here today and never won at track and only 1 from 8 at distance (0 from 8 at class). Looks up against it today on stats but has ability.
Alcohol: Don’t ignore this progressive gelding. Ran second in a decent 3Y-GP3 in Adelaide over the 2000m and seems to have progressed nicely this prep with two wins and a forgive run. Weighted nicely and will be hitting the line hard.
Dark Note: Showed improvement last start and weighted nicely here today off 51kg (gains at least 3kg on all previous rivals) but doesn’t look classy enough unless it becomes a heavy track.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Unsure how we will approach this race. May simply be skipped.

Flemington Race 4
*Warning* – Down the straight races are always very hard to match up with form lines. Horses simply run differently around corners!
Tamuntana: Hard to have today off the weight. Never won at track from 4 tries and didn’t show much first up.
Jeteven: Never won first up from 8 attempts, never won or placed from 4 at track. Claim of 3kg helps today and can run decent times but obviously doesn’t handle the straight on no wins or places here previously.
Snapparazi: Has won at track, class and first up previously. Form from last prep is rubbish. Will need to have grown a leg today.
Goldstone: Interesting runner up in class. Won the one race last prep and was scratched last week. Can handle a straight track and runs well first up. Will go close off the weight.
Paaratte Pat: Impressive winner last start at Moonee Valley doing a lot of work throughout the race. Down 2.5kg today and up in class. Form lines around the previous run haven’t really held up well, but he will be hard to beat today.
Spartan Warrior: Good win last start after progressing on from lesser company races. First time down the straight, but can run a solid time. Looks suited.
Chelembra: Excuses first two runs this prep. May simply be outclassed today on those runs.
Too Deadly: Has a load of ability as a swooper but has never won at track or in class previously. Has won first up. Can run a solid race.
Dad Knows Best: Average at best form lines. Can’t have.
Melba: Interesting runner down in class big time today after winning in a F&M and finds herself 1kg better off with 52.5kg on her back. Goes well at the distance, handles a fast tempo, can take a sit and swoop late. BIG chance.
Big Bear Rock: Has solid form from previous adventures down in Melbourne. Won very well last start in Darwin. Don’t ignore.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Like Melba here with no weight and down in class. 5 units to win Melba with 1 unit Paaratte Pat saver.

Flemington Race 5
Agrippa: Has been rather disappointing this prep but is down in grade today and has a 3kg claim taking him to a respectable 57kg. Up to a more suitable distance (1400m) and does run well at the track. Last prep didn’t break through for a win until 3rd up and last win was at 1600m in this grade. Suggest last start was a forgive run due to the track. May be value!
White Universe: Given a fairly average ride first up when set out the back. At similar distance today over the 1400m at a track where has 1 win 1 place from 2. Down in class is a bonus but off 57.5kg, didn’t show me enough first up to suggest he can turn it all around this quickly. Seems to be at best 3rd up in prep.
Bangerang Quikpic: On first up can’t have.
Sheahan: Two fairly average runs this prep. Happy to be against.
Future Solution: Disappointing not to break through late last prep when we were on at any old odds. Down in class today off 55kg after claim and up to a distance that is more suited. 3 of last four runs at Flemington (all on slow tracks) ran within 0.8L of winning in harder class at similar weight. Has the ability
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Been off a while. Seems to be suited to much longer distances but has won at this before. Unknown factor today.
Dayita: Progressive mare who won some very handy races last start at longer distances. Don’t count her out here today as she has won 2 placed 4 from 4 at the distance and at the track. If she is right, will be the one to beat.
Flyingconi: On previous two runs I can’t have him today at the weights.
Clanga’s Glory: Won well second up after a good first up run. This is a step up in class again today. Could run well.
Dane The Rave: Keeps putting in solid runs with a 3rd last start. Much harder today.
Scottish Border: Forgive first up. Even after forgiving that, can’t have.
The New Boy: Excuses the last few runs. Back down to winable class today and 54kg, looks suited from barrier 5.
Goldslick: Rather disappointing first up. Up in class today but down to 51.5kg is a massive bonus. Will go close.
Urban Explorer: Better suited to longer distances. Has won at distance before and does run well, but is a stayer. Goes well first up and nice weight.
Orbital Motion: Big run two back behind Callanish. Has the ability to run a nice race off 51kg.
British General: Poor last start. Has ability but harder job today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 6, 8, 13, 14, 16
Strategy: Open race so hard to pick as shown by our Quaddie. The New Boy to place may be the go for 3 units.

Flemington Race 6
Orbit Express: Harshly weighted today. Can’t have.
Shock Value: Poor first up and can’t see enough improvement to win today.
Red Colossus: Forgive first up run. Has never won at track which is hard to go off of. Better suited to longer distances.
Amaha Rock: Not sure how many times more you can forgive this horse. Has cost punters a bundle this prep (including us). Up 1.5kg today is a tad harsh. Interesting that they are back down to the 1200m with the horse today. Could be what he is wanting.
Adamon: Didn’t show enough either runs this prep.
Verdasco: Very poor first up but has a strong second up record and goes well at the track. May just need a few more runs.
Adamantium: Outclassed on previous two runs even though last run was a forgive.
Devils Force: Ran well last prep behind horses like Freereturn. Has won at class previously and likes the distance. Never won first up only concern and up in class.
Youbolt: Weighted nicely today but this does look a lot harder than previous class when couldn’t get within 2L already well weighted.
Giresun: A good chance if it is a heavy track today. Other than that, hard to have.
Big Buddie: Got given a very poor ride last start taken to the back for no real good reason. Hopefully given a better ride today closer to the front from barrier 3. The one to beat.
Laspiel: Never placed first or second up. Can’t have.
Outstandingly: has ability but on previous run can’t have.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 5, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: Big Buddie forgiven for last run and looks the one to beat here. 6 units to win.

Flemington Race 7
Angolaner: French runner first up here. Been off almost a year. Looks suited to longer distances but win wouldn’t shock out of Moody yard.
Lord Wimble: Disappointing loss last start. Best run this prep was at Moonee Valley on a dead track followed by last start on a dead track also. Will appreciate the rain today and increase in distance..
Under The Hat:  Has been super poor this prep. Can’t back again even though up in distances and down in class suits. Needs to show us more first.
Kutchinsky: Good first up run but since then been poor.
Midnight Glory: Ran ok last start but has to find an extra leg today.
Lakedro: Not in good enough form to win today.
Hot Lover: Taking a big risk today at the price. Won once at track, never at distance. Weighted ok but you are taking a big risk with the price.
Moulin Bleu: Form lines average at best. Will struggle.
Wells: Needs longer distances.
Chateau Fort: Not the worst run last start. Down 5kg today. Could place.
Crawfish: Not shown enough this prep to suggest can break through. Never won at distance or track. Don’t rate last start 2nd.
Whisper Downs: Looks safely held today.
Lonhreign: Weighted nicely today but happy to avoid on previous form this prep.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 3, 5, 10
Strategy: Most likely skipping this race.

Flemington Race 8
Chile Express: WAYYYY down in class today at a distance that should suit. Ignore last start when didn’t settle in the run. Will be hard to beat today even off 60kg.
Supreme Warrior: Has shown ability this prep but this is a step up once again and looks poorly weighted.
City of Song: Weighted very very very well today off 54kg after claim. Down in class again and better off at weights. Has won at the track and at the distance. From barrier 1 should get a very charmed run and be hitting the line hard.
Khalifa: Progressive horse who seemed to get found out last start. Up in class again today and down 3kg. Looks to be a tough task but has the ability to win.
Work The Line: Won quite well first up for us at Cranbourne. Down 3.5kg today.. this does an extra step and he may struggle.
Cross Of Gold: 3.5kg better off on Supreme Warrior today when only 0.8L behind last start which suggests will progress past. Not sure I could back him on previous form.
Lampedusa: Strong form lines in front of Emergency Ward first up and then last start won very well at Caulfield in a very fast run 1440 race. In equal class here today and down 1.5kg. Does look to have a bit more class in this race but that 3.3L was impressive. Hard to hold out today.
Red Inca: Looks outclassed today off previous runs.
Durnford: Looks to be wanting further on previous prep. Does have some ability.
Lingo: Outclassed here.
Angola: Outclassed today.
My Boy Noah: Outclassed.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 4, 5, 8
Strategy: Really like how well weighted City of Song is today and can see the hors winning today. Only concerns are Lampedusa and Chille Express. City of Song 3 units to place and 1.5 units to win OR City of Song 2.5 units to win Lampedusa 1.5 units to win look the plays worth touching.

Rosehill Race 1
Strong 2YO class race with many a first starter. Happy to stay out of this. Too many unknowns.

Rosehill Race 2
Three main chances here today with the top two in the market both strong filly’s in Gullible and Centrepet. The one that sticks out for us is Bennetta who first up ran 0.8L behind Longport. Down in grade and down 2kg off a 5 month spell. If comes back fit, will be hard to beat.
Confidence 65%

Rosehill Race 3
Hunter Jack is an interesting runner today after finishing 1.5L behind Office Bearer last start. If you followed our MV form last night, our second pick in Race 7 Soapy Star was coming off a 3L loss to Office Bearer which we saw as a bonus as OB would be winning this race. Main threat looks to be Long Lasting.
Confidence 70%

Rosehill Race 4
More chances than non chances in this race. It is hard to go against Scream Machine after that impressive win last start. Not very confident here though.
Confidence 60%

Rosehill Race 5
A number of chances with Lady La Douce, Songs and Roses, She’s Clean and Choice Words all in the market with claims. Choice Words is down in class today having won previously at the track. From barrier 1 may get stuck in traffic for a run if not careful today. She’s Clean was an impressive winner four months back and should have trained on. Goes well fresh. Song and Roses is hard to judge but did win very well over 1600m last prep. Question is the distance. Lady la Douche off 52kg today up in class is a big question factor. Runs well at the track and has been on or around the win the last three runs this prep. Has ability.
Confidence 65%

Rosehill Race 6
Big win last start by Fiumicino. Off the same weight today and looks suited by the extra 200m as well. Issues today are that Moriarty is gains 2kg on him and also 1.5kg on Cantonese. Cassidy jumps on Cantonese which seems like it may be a disaster to me. There have been people jumping out of their cars to back Iggi Pop.. but I just can’t see it doing anything today. Trajet down from Queensland is an interesting runner, but doesn’t seem well suited today. King Utah can’t be ignored either with a strong effort 0.8L behind Fiumicino. In the end, it comes back to two runners for me and Moriarty from barrier 5 looks suited to get a charmed run and is weighted well enough today to turn the tables.
Confidence 70%

Rosehill Race 7
Irish Jig is poorly weighted today compared to Uate and shouldn’t win. The big money has been for Angel of Mercy. Ran fairly last start in harder company and only up 0.5kg. Looks unders for mine. The horse that sticks out for us is first up today and has won first up previously. Weighted nicely, Havana Rey is a front runner who will be VERY hard to run down.
Confidence 70%

Rosehill Race 8
Sessions was super disappointing last start but is suited today off 53kg. Will be hard to run down. Testarhythm was very strong first up this prep behind Pentasia and could surprise again today. Whitlam is a hard horse to handicap here but should run well while Ain’t She Grand looks to improve from first up. Finally off 51kg, Kimberley Kid looks great value for a place bet.
Confidence 65%

Eagle Farm Race 5
Jet Style meets 9 other horses who have not finished better than 5th in their last run this prep. Up 2kg today is the only issue. Will run another solid 1600m and barrier 7 is fine.
Confidence 80%

Eagle Farm Race 6
Hard to doubt the class of Sizzling but I am happy to stay out of this race at the price. There are some very handy winners in this race and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sizzling gets done!

Eagle Farm Race 7
Two to follow from this race. First is Rose of Scotland. Weighted well today up from Sydney. Has the ability and is a massive price. The other is Divine City. On previous prep runs can win, big overs.
Confidence 75%

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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