Welcome to our Flemington and Warwick Farm form. Talk about the tale of two days. Had one of our best days for a long time on Thursday at Moonee Valley and then last night couldn’t pick our noses if we wanted to. That is racing. Onwards and upwards! A fairly average card today at Flemington, but with a few horses with solid straight form, there is a bit of value on the card. As always, we home our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Racecard
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Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 Lord Of Brazil
Next Best
Flemington Race 2 Waratone
Best Value (must be over $2.50 the place)
Flemington Race 8 Baron Douro
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington
Flemington Race 1
Bernardini Genie: Didn’t show anything first up. Happy to avoid as long as money doesn’t come for it.
Iberia: Snowden runner who is half-brother to another handy Snowden horse called Generalife. May be the one to beat.
Kievann: 1 of 4 brothers/sisters has been very successful (Eight Bills). Market is your guide.
Midnight Rule: Moody runner strangely booked with Newitt (very rare). Handy full brother who won first run and then unplaced behind Stralia next start. Could run well if looks good in yard.
Safeguard: 3 of 4 siblings have won over 50k with one (Killian) up to 250k at 4YO. Family has ability in the blood.
Stamina: Half-sister very average.
Weinholt: Out of a mare who won around 68k in prize money.
Mount Zero: Market only guide.
Confidence 60%
Flemington Race 2
Waratone: Big win last start over a similar distance and will be suited by the Flemington straight today. Claim of 3kg helps big time here off 57kg Won 4 in a row all by over 1.3L and looks hard to beat once again today.
Crafty Cruiser: Been found out his last two starts and may finally be coming to the end of his prep. In weaker class today but back up at the weights. Has the ability but needs to find more today.
You Think So: Big win in much easier class last start and down 1kg here. The biggest factor is back to 2550m instead of the 3000m where he is best suited. Never won at this distance or track but has been in fine form. Big chance still.
Module: Found out last start 4L behind Waratone. 4.5kg better off today but doesn’t seem enough.
Pergola: Has won at distance previously but never placed from 5 starts at track. Looks outclassed at weights.
Almodovar: Ran better than previous last start and meets Waratone about 4kg better off today. Still needs to find more.
Apres: Down 6kg today which helps but form lines don’t work out strongly.
Altonio: On previous form is up against it at the weights and doesn’t seem classy enough.
Confidence 80%
Flemington Race 3
Fast and Free: Super run last start up in class at Caulfield. Back down to a class that suits and looks one of the main chances today.
Regular Aussie: Been racing in stronger races than this at lesser tracks. If races to form lines, can win but this looks much harder.
Quick Shakes: Big win last start by 3.5L in a much easier race than this. Has ability and won 3 from 5 at distance. Has to improve again today.
Elms: Up in class today and looks up against it.
Gogonski: Up in class again today. Has been running strong races recently and just finishing a few too good for him. In with a chance.
Oriental Ruby: Been racing in much easier class than this today but is worth a shot at the stumps off 52kg. Will have every chance from the back and will be running on strongly. Has a big chance today.
Speckie: Handy horse who has progressed from maiden class this prep. Must improve again today.
Rock Musician: Seems to be better suited to a longer distance such as 2000m but the training could have been around this distance. On previous runs, will go close today.
Danzare: Nice run first up but this is a much harder race. Needs to find a few more lengths.
Confidence 75%
Flemington Race 4
Winter King: Ran ‘ok’ two back at course and distance but needs to find a length or two more today. Up in weights on that run.
Go The Knuckle: Hasn’t run for 6 months but has a good first up record. Has wins over some very classy runners including Satin Shoes in quality times. If comes back super fit today, can win.
The Soldier: Super disappointing firs tup at Caulfield. Has to find much more today.
Beltrois: Been off a year 9 months. Last win was in an amazingly fast 1:08.8 in 2010 at Caulfield over 1200m. Never won first up from 7 runs but have to think they wouldn’t bring him back out of shape after all this time. Could be value.
Hotham Heights: Returned well last start to run on from the back into a place. Up 2kg here today which is a little rough. Still has a very good chance. 0 wins 5 places at distance from 5 starts.
Forty Two Below: Weighted ok today but looks outclassed.
Riverina’s Girl: Huge step up in class. Weighted nicely but doesn’t seem up to this.
Unique Quality: Didn’t show enough first up.
Confidence 70%
Flemington Race 5
Danish Whiskey: Up in class today and poorly weighted. Claiming 2kg down to 58kg but this is a much harder race. May find this too hard.
Battles End: Progressive type who ran into a red hot Campagne Ruby last start. Down in class and down 0.5kg today. Could run a very solid race back to the 1400m.
Benenden: Super win last start at Caulfield and up in class today down 2kg after claim. As long as gets away well, will be there at the end ready to win.
Perfectly Stunning: Huge run first up to win a fast ran 1300m at Sandown. Up 2.5kg today but will be hard to beat on that form.
Quicksilver Lass: Ridden out the back last start and given no chance. Will get a chance today up in class. Big chance.
Valrouz: Progressive and unlucky last start not to win. Has the ability to go close again today.
Baremin: Not likely today.
Mondita: Not likely today even though well weighted.
Grave: Just keeps finding a few too good for her. Seems a harder race today than last start.
Mawaakib: Form behind Miss Softhands is solid and didn’t disappoint too much last start. Down to 53kg today and could run very well.
Albadeen: Maiden winner. Not up to this.
Nat: Doesn’t look progressive enough.
Crystalised: Hard horse to place. Has the ability on last start runs but may be looking for loner races this prep again. Could run well.
Sacred Dream: Outclassed on previous prep even off 51kg.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 3, 4, 5, 6, 11
Flemington Race 6
Lord of Brazil: Just keeps producing massive runs this prep and you can expect another one today. This does look a little classier field but down to 57kg today after claim means he is weighted to win. Has placed 14 of last 16 runs!!!
Over Quota: Runs well at Flemington. Has the ability but has never won from 11 starts at this distance. May be outclassed on weights today but will certainly run within 2L of the winners.
Rockpecker: Super run last start at Caulfield when 4th. Up in class today and up in weight but will still run on well today.
Under The Eiffel: On previous run and weights is outclassed today unless improves lengths on previous runs.
Lucky Eighty Eight: Not suited by this distance. Never won first up.
Chasm: hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest has trained on enough to win. Has ability on previous prep.
Lone Command: Hard horse to place. Has the ability to win today off previous runs but has never won in class. Has won 3 placed 4 from 8 at distance. Hasn’t raced in just over a year!
Down Under Boy: On weights is outclassed today. Has the ability to go close though.
Prince Obama: Runs well first up and should position forward today from barrier 1 with a sit. Suited by weight today. Can go close.
Future Solution: Needs to improve 2L today for a chance.
Snow Cover: Not classy enough to win this on previous form. Only thing in his favour is 51kg after claim.
Dash for Viz: Can run a strong race but does look outclassed.
Little Boy Blue: Not up to this.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 10
Flemington Race 7
Elusive King: Ran 0.5L behind Tuscan Fire last start and meets 1kg worse off today. Seems better suited by the 2000m today.
Under The Hat: Looks better suited in this level of class just like last start. Up to 2000m should suit and off 57kg has the ability to win today. Big chance.
Grand Ducal: Outclassed on form lines.
Keep Cool: Up in class today after a nice run behind Commanding times at Moonee Valley. Weighted ok today but has to find much more today.
Tuscan Fire: Solid run last start behind Full peal off 51kg. Down in class today and up to 2000m which suits even better off 54.5kg after 3kg claim. Has the ability and will go close today.
King’s A Star: has ability but not classy enough for this today.
Cry In Awe: Good form lines but has to find a few more lengths today.
Between The Beats: Good 2nd up run. Has shown ability up at this distance in NZ and could surprise with a good run today.
Meritorious: Didn’t beat much home last start. Has ability but may be outclassed.
First Course: Shown enough to suggest can win today if produces a career best run off 52kg.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 5, 9
Flemington Race 8
Baron Douro: Was in fine form last prep winning in much harder company than this at course and distance off 0.5kg and 1kg less. Has won first up previously and if trained on, will be super hard to beat.
Tackleberry: Good form lines around Khalifa who won after being beaten by Tackleberry. Up in class again today but has been very progressive. Win won’t shock having won 5 and placed 3 from 9 starts at this distance.
Al Aneed: Back down to a winable grade of race but there are still question marks around this horse. The main one being if 1200m is too short, I suspect the answer is yes. Still has a good shot today.
Mr Obvious: Good run two back in harder company at Moonee Valley and simply just ignore last start. Has ability and will go close today but may find one too classy.
Henwood: Good win in lesser company last start and is weighted well today off the 3kg claim down to 54.5kg. Barrier 14 the only negative but will take a sit and be pushed hard late.
Motorised: Not classy enough for this today.
Gig: Keeps producing solid runs and last start 3rd to It Is Written is solid form. Down 3kg today and could surprise having won here at course and distance last prep.
Diamond Diggler: Outclassed today.
Pillar of Creation: Good first up prep and looked progressive. Down to 52.5kg today which should suit but needs to have found 2-3L at least during training on.
Chilean Plume: Only just won a maiden. Weighted nicely off 51kg but will still struggle.
Captain Fancypantz: Weighted nicely but this is too classy.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 11
Warwick Farm
Warwick Farm Race 1
Heart Testa is the short priced favourite here today and will start the day for the Waller stable with a bang. Harada Bay is the only other horse we can see getting close enough to win today.
Warwick Farm Race 2
We are super keen on Mosse Diva here today. Super run behind Mahisara which has proved to be a form race to go by. Had to do a lot of work early as well and just kept finding. Down in class today and suited with 4 wins 1 place from 5 at distance and 2 win from 2 at track.
Warwick Farm Race 3
Skip this race.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Baltra has been winning and winning well in Wagga. Comes here today with a load of potential. Will push forward and be VERY hard to pass.
Warwick Farm Race 5
A super competitive race with many with the Scream Machine form lines. Brightest looks to be the best horse here today coming out of that race but is equally hurt by weight with Lucripetous. Angelus looks to have been saved from penalties and is 3kg better off today. Fortuntefivehundred down 4kg today is having a free chuck at the stumps. The 4.8L win at Caulfield was in a very solid time and he will be VERY hard to beat today.
Warwick Farm Race 6
With 18 runners, this is wide open! Holy Moly is one of the most interesting runners for us. From barrier 3, will be going forward with Cassidy on board to lead. Down to 53kg today after a blistering 1:29.2 1500m win last start at Rosehill. Shout Out Loud is one to watch also up from Melbourne after a good win which may prove to be a good form race and don’t count out Kinnersley who is weighted to win today.
Warwick Farm Race 7
At the Crease isn’t the worst in this race today with a solid 1L loss to Soros last start being solid form. The top two in this race look to be Triple Six and Disciple. Triple Six keeps running solidly but just can’t break through. Back in class today has every chance at suitable distance while Disciple down in class is weighted to run a solid race.
Warwick Farm Race 8
A very strong race to finish the card today. Whitefriars will be winning this as long as he returns in top form as shown last prep winning a Group 2 in front of Beaded! Hypurr is an interesting runner back from Japan. Runs well first up and is a winner at Distance and in class. Finally, Adebisi looks to be the best weighted horse in the race. He wouldn’t have sen 54.5kg for a long time and from barrier 3 will be hard to pass.
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