Horse Racing Form – Flemington Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day and Rosehill – Saturday 16 February

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Flemington and Rosehill. Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day is upon us and you can guess who we think will be winning that race. There are some very strong fields today and around three Flemington races that look WIDE open. We are very keen on our two best today and feel that Katie Mallyon can finally get The New Boy across the line for a win. Either way, the place price looks value considering the weight, down in class and previous runs. Don’t forget to check out our article on all the amazing Promotions on offer for today. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 Keep Cool

Next Best
Flemington Race 9 The New Boy to place

Best Value
Rosehill Race 6 Longport

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington Race 1
Excitable Boy: Ran well enough the last two starts. Up 1kg today. Should find plenty.
Consorting: Market will be your guide. Breeding is average at best.
Great Esteem: Full brother to High Esteem who has shown enough to suggest the breeding lines are sound. Williams booked always strong. Hayes flying.
The Hummel: Couldn’t back on first up run.
Halin’ Diamonds: Did a lot wrong first up and still won. Can improve but doesn’t look good enough for this.
Annenberg: Ran well enough firs tup, this is harder.
Blue Palace: Was well backed last start, failed big time. Can’t see a win today.
Casquets: Ran quite well first up and should improve today. Down 3kg.
Essie’s Pride: Slowly away and blocked for runs first up, Could shock and win.
Politeness: Simply forgive first up run. Hall on and Boss off is a big positive.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: They backed Politeness very hard first up and she was given a very poor ride. If she had won, you would be getting $2.50, instead, we are getting around $5 today. Big chance and should be better suited and given a better ride today. Small win bet with a saver on Great Esteem if the money comes for it.

Flemington Race 2
Bianmick: Needs further than this distance on the last run. Also needs to be pushed forward.
Vatuvei: Ignore last start at Flemington and look to two back at Moonee Valley and four back behind Lord of Brazil. Off 56.5kg today has the ability to be winning.
Prince Of Capers: A strong horse who has won us a fair bit in the past, never won first up from 7 tries is the big concern but goes well at Flemington and likes the distance. Goes better on wetter tracks though.
Chasm: Not good enough this prep. Can’t see this today.
Cosmic Causeway: Ran well enough first up behind Population. Down 0.5kg today needs to find 1.5L more.
New York: Resumed in very fine form first up but hasn’t measured up to this class previously. Will get every chance at this track today. Big chance.
Dany The Fox: Ran well behind Population and won well previous to that as well. Doesn’t look as classy as New York is my only concern.
Pure Courage: not good enough on previous form lines. This is much harder.
Audino: Not good enough.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Dany The Fox looks to be unders in this race. New York looks to be a very good price here and most likely shortens. May simply just Lay Dan the Fox here as the play as Vatuvei and Cosmic could improve also.

Flemington Race 3
Mosse Diva: They just keep running this horse not how we would like her. Needs to be pushed forward, but it is hard to see that happening today from the wide gate. Hard to have but always runs a solid race.
Epingle: Never won first up but has strong claims in this class and at the distance. Never won on a Good track before.
Kasane: Ignore last start at Moonee Valley and look to two back and previous run to that at Flemington. Enjoys the track but is better on a dead than good track. Never won at distance.
Terpsichore: Hard to see the win today up in weight.
Go Katrina: Fairly poor both runs this prep. Can’t see a win today.
Music Shop: Big win last start and up 2kg today 1.5kg worse off against You Can Dance. Looks to be at the right weight today to be even with You Can Dance. From barrier 4 can position perfectly to win this today.
Perfectly Stunning: Won very well last start at Sandown and three back also. Nothing wrong with run two back at course, but doesn’t seem the best suited by the track.
You Can Dance: Weighted better today against Music Shop. Never won on a Good track previously or in class. Is in fine form and will be hard to beat.
Gig: Good win three back but hasn’t shown enough since then to suggest a win today.
Ominous Quality: Hard to have on weights in this class today. Did win well last start in easier company.
Pass the Post: Not good enough.
First Print: Not good enough.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: 5 runners with a chance here and that is simply too many. Can’t back anything in this.

Flemington Race 4
Shewan: Ran well first up and up to a more suited distance today looks well in here. Never won from 5 second up or at track from 2 starts.
Keep Cool: Tuscan Fire form is gold, and he beat Tuscan two back! Weighted even better today off 54kg and is ready to win again. Noonan knows how to ride him and barrier 5 is PERFECT.
Elusive King: Weighted nicely today but seems to have gone backwards his last two starts. Hard to see him improving today enough to win. Should get stuck the rails and find it hard to get out from barrier 2.
Rowland: Not good enough.
Bells of Troy: 4kg worse off against Keep Cool today. Can’t win on that fact alone. She will win something good soon again with strong form beating Streets of Seattle two back.
Altonio: Very game course who never puts in a bad run. Will be running on strongly but this certainly looks a step up. Never placed in 3 starts at this class.
Diamonds At Noon: Hard to see enough progression to win today up 3kg.
Red Shift: 4kg worse off against Keep Cool today. Hard to see the win.
Angola: This is Award Season all over again. A horse who has progressed from maiden class to running second in a 7 horse BM-85 on Heavy. SAME WEIGHT today in Open Class against significantly better horses. Even worse is that his run in worse class last start, that he didn’t win, was on Heavy so that form really doesn’t stack up. A win would shock me from this horse today.
Frisky No More: Not good enough even so well weighted today.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: The Tuscan Fire form line has been making us money the last two to three weeks and that should continue today. Very keen. Happy to back Keep Cool today at the prices being offered on the nose. 5 Unit win bet.

Flemington Race 5
Kazanluk: Showed enough last start with 2 places and 1 win in this class. Down in class today and down 3.5kg (very close 2nd at track). Looks to be very hard to beat resuming here.
Alzora: Resuming today looks to be wanting further. Could still run well.
Spending: Ignore last start. Will position further back today and run on strongly. Still, looks unders up in class here.
Legcut: Meets Spending 2.5kg better off today for 1.3L loss which looks enough to me to turn the tables. Improved since and will run very well. Only issue is if she enjoys the 1400m.
Royal Scandal: Didn’t show enough last start to suggest has the improvement to win today.
Nadeem Lass: Ran well enough last start but the key is to look to three back when 2nd to Summer Gem here. Down in the weights today and actually did beat Royal Scandal four back. Should run really well today.
Petite Diablesse: Doesn’t look good enough for this class.
You’re So Good: Surprised by her price today. Not sure I really rate her form well enough to win this.
Baluch: Showed enough last prep to suggest has a lot of progression to come. A win wouldn’t shock and she looks overs.
Kochamma: Hard to judge on first up run. Can’t back but should go much better today.
Are There Any: Ran very well last start at Caulfield but seems poorly weighted against others today. May get found out on this.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Very open race. Going to be betting small but am happy to have a small go at each of the runners identified above and a Tri/F4 with six or so runners.

Flemington Race 6
Lunar Rise: Showed some very strong form at the end of his prep and resumes here today. Never won first up and got flogged in the ‘trial run’ at Moonee Valley last week. Has won 2/2 at this distance but you would want to see a few runs this prep before backing.
Albrecht: Ignore first up run where it seems something went wrong. 2.5kg better off today and could run very well more suited by the 1400m. Don’t dismiss.
Philippi: Showed a lot of talent last prep and could resume strongly enough today to win. Price looks to be about right.
Bass Strait: Not good enough for this on previous runs, but can run a solid race.
Force Command: Ran well enough last start 4.3L behind Royal haunt. 1.5kg better off today but that isn’t enough.
Hosting: 1.5kg better off today against Royal but doesn’t look good enough and Williams jumping off shows that to us.
High Esteem: Put in some decent runs last start but needs to have found 3L more in the off-season.
Sheer Talent: Can’t back on that first up run.
Gerontius: A class below these.
Pins of Pele: On previous form seems to be wanting further. Not in this.
Prakticality: Shouldn’t be getting a run today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 6
Strategy: Royal Haunt scratched and there goes all of the confidence from the race. No thanks.

Flemington Race 7
First Command: Shows ability, but not this type of ability.
Golden Archer: Runs well first up and has some very strong form lines. Has placed previously at class and distance. Should run well.
Moment of Change: BIG win last start of last prep. Has never raced at this distance previously so hard to tell if he will be suited. Good place chance.
Go The Knuckle: Not top three here.
Spirit Cent: Shouldn’t be running in this class.
Black Caviar: Goes well first up wink Yes she wins.
Satin Shoes: Didn’t show anything last two starts in this company.
Shamexpress: Strong form lines.. Could surprise and run close to Black Cav on recent runs especially the run from dead last to get within 1L of Nechita.
Confidence 100%
Quaddie leg two: 6
Strategy: Obviously Black Caviar wins this. Shamexpress looks a clear place chance here and if you can get around $1.55 on Betfair or above, which we should, it represents value.

Flemington Race 8
Top Drop: A very good horse who just hasn’t shown anything the last two preps. Hard to see winning today.
Pilot’s Lane: hard to tell how he will run today. Has won 2 placed 2 from 5 first up and has won at class and also twice at distance. Weighted fairly, barrier 5 and Mc Evoy on board all positives. Has the ability to win.
Its Prince: Showed nothing last prep. Never won at this distance.
Belfast Boy: Runs well on a straight track but hasn’t ran well the last two runs. Looks a little hard today for him unless the pace is VERY strong.
Goldstone: Unlucky last start and runs strongly over the straight distance. Should position further forward today and run well.
Le Bonsir: Galloped on last start the Valley so forgive. Up in class again today but is progressive enough to win this.
Dane The Rave: Gone backwards the last two starts but has ability.
Decircles: Ready to win today. Was super unlucky last start not to win. Weighted to win today.
Flyingconi: Very strong win last start at the valley. Could have turned a corner and is 4kg better off today against Le Bonsir.
Instalment: Has ability but is a watch and see today. Has won on the straight previously but didn’t beat much that day.
Lake Crescent: Not winning this.
War Charm: Won well last start in a huge time at Warwick Farm. Will be pushing hard late and looks a huge chance today.
Chelembra: Strong horse with every chance once again today. Poorly weighted agianst Belfast Boy though.
Too Deadly: Ready to win, just not in this class you would suspect.
Academy Jack: Not good enough.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 13, 15
Strategy: A number of chances here but Decircles is the best runner in the race. Flyingconi is weighted to win today so watch for him late.

Flemington Race 9
Why Not: Ran well enough first up but this is much harder up to 60kg today. Could still win.
Langridge Street: Big win at course two back and could surprise again. Only issue is weight.
Gail: Running well enough but needs big improvement today.
Auld Burns: Good run first up but that race wasn’t a huge form line. Up to 1700m suits.
Laspiel: Didn’t show enough last starts.
Pride of Coupez: Better suited to 3000m races.
The New Boy: Four seconds in a row, we are due a win from this horse who loves Flemington. Today is the day with Katie Mallyon back on board for us. Down to 55.5kg today back in class.
Under The Hat: Continues to improve this prep and down in class, could go close today.
Niconoise: Not good enough on first up run.
Min River: Very strong run at Moonee Valley last start. Weighted VERY well today down 1kg down in class and could be value.
Misty Eyes: beat Population in Adelaide two back. Will run very well.
Word Gets Around: Not good enough on last two runs to win this IMO.
Karoo: Not good enough.
Umatic: Could run well but suspect outclassed
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 2, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Back in class today, meets a few strong runners, but nothing as good as those who have beaten him in the past. Due the win and Mallyon who has won on him before can get him over the line for us today.

Rosehill Race 1
What looks like a fairly strong race was quickly taken back to three chances for mine. Fast Clip put in a very solid run last start yet continues to be one of the worst handicapped horses in Sydney. Cassidy will be pushing him hard out front again today. Has never travelled this distance previously and you get the feeling was better suited by Warwick Farm than Rosehill. Thumbtacks didn’t run very well at all last start it looked like. Can forgive that run and expect better today. Finally Frozen Rope won’t be so far back today and be trying to make up an impossible amount of lengths. Weighted to win and should be there at the line.
Confidence 70%

Rosehill Race 2
A race of the resumers with four of the top five in this race having their first starts this prep today. I am happy to work around Red Tracer and Pear Tart on their form last prep leaving me with Steps in Time and Lady Angel. Ladys Angel hasn’t been around for 8 months but when she was, she ran 3rd in a Group 1 at similar distances. Looks weighted nicely today if resumes well. Steps in Time is the one to beat today. Runs well fresh and has good form around this distnace. Will be going forward and needs to be chased down.
Confidence 65%

Rosehill Race 3
Easier races to pick a winner in today, but Napayshini looks to be progressive enough to win this.
Confidence 60%

Rosehill Race 4
One of the hardest races of the day due to the quality of runners. Most Joyful the sister of More Joyous looks to be breed to win. Brilliant Bisc beat home Guelph first up and looks to be a solid runner. Everage ran well beating Twilight Royale first up who won at Mornington with ease on Wednesday. Overreach ran 1.3L 2nd behind Ville Verde who we rate as one of the best 2YO’s while Mamwaazel ran nicely in front of Rockford.
Confidence 70%

Rosehill Race 5
Really hard to rate Sacred Falls first up in Australia, but the times ran are all very solid and having trained on with the Waller yard for three months, you expect she will be in best form today. Ashokan is an interesting runner resuming today. Always runs solidly but can’t back first up here. Honorius should run a solid race but may be wanting further and finally Rebel Dane also resumes today. Is one of the most talented horses going around so don’t ignore him.
Confidence 75%

Rosehill Race 6
Bennetta has been very progressive this prep and no doubt is very talented but has had the last two races run to suit with strong tempos. Will be sitting far back and this is MUCH harder than those previous runs and looks unders. Drifontein looks to be suited here but just finds ways to get beaten. Dear Demi should run well but is suited to further distances. Longport is a MASSIVE chance today. Goes to the front and just stays for days. Will get the chance to put a solid speed on and win. Ichihara ran well last prep and could imrpove on but the first up run was concerning. Jade Marauder is another who could run well but needs to improve. Finally we get to Brave Soul. Has some very strong form around better than Ready and Shamal Wind. Super effort at Flemington last start and looks ready to win.
Confidence 75%

Rosehill Race 7
Very open race. Fibrillation resumes today off 58.5kg and has a very good first up record. Runs ‘ok’ at this distance but has a strong Rosehill record. Would be more suited if a bit of rain does hit the track. Riva De Lago was HUGE last start and up 2.5kg today has every chance. Hotlonny resuming today. Only issue is the distance. Aeronautical finished his campaign strongly last prep and could resume well today while Number One Gun is ready to win.
Confidence 65%

Rosehill Race 8
Not a fan of this race but Mon Soleil resuming today goes well at the track and is weighted to win today while Under the Sun will be hard to beat resuming today also.
Confidence 70%

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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