Welcome to The Profits first write up for the New Year. Adjustment for scratchings may not happen until around 12-1pm due to a big night out (we think we deserve it!). We have been amazed at the growth of our website in the space of six months and hope to continue providing high quality content at the best price available; free. We have big things on the cards for next year. The biggest step is to upgrade the website which should be completed by the end of February 2013 so that navigation is significantly easier for all returning visitors. We have also signed on an expert for the Australian Open this year. He will be focusing mainly on the men’s side of the draw, but he will be providing a preview of the fields, draws and a daily match by match analysis. The New Year should also see a NRL expert signed on and the AFL duties to a current writer for us with more expert knowledge. Here’s hoping you all have a great New Years Eve and successful start to the new year. We also hope your form matches up with ours as always. Good luck and Happy Punting.
Flemington Race 7 Infinite Energy
Flemington Race 2 Aeronwy
Flemington Race 3 Jackpot Queen
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Ascot Race 8 – Perth Cup
Mr Moet looks to be up against it today at the weights. No doubt his last three runs have been sensational but this class off 59kg against others better weighted will be a hard one to run out. On previous runs does look better suited by the step up to 2400m but time will tell. Cantonese is the raider with a massive chance. That last start win over 2400m at Rosehill was breath taking. He just kept finding and finding. Barrier 19 certainly doesn’t help but he is the one to beat off 54kg for us. Finally, one of the best weighted horses in the race today is Pop Culture. Finished 0.7L off Mr Moet two runs back and meets 3.5kg better off today. Barrier 20 hurts but she is weighted to win and showed that last start winning a 2100m race in Open class by nearly a length at the course.
Flemington Race 1
Double Dee: Good strong win first up at Mornington. Will find this MUCH harder today up 1.5kg in much harder company. Should run well but it is always a tough task progressing this much so soon and leading a race like this out at Flemington.
Extreme Impact: Another strong second last start in Maiden class at MV. Could run well with some form behind horses such as Alices Virtue, Subiaso and ZeroSixHundred but needs to produce much more today.
Mariposa Lily: Nice win first up but up 1.5kg today after claim and won’t find a slow track which she may be suited to. Could run well but money will guide you.
Nadeem Lass: Won a slowly run race in much easier company. Up 1kg today.
Spirit of Soul: hard horse to rate today. Price yard so should have the quality to win today. Injured last start so can’t rate on that. Previous run at Geelong was only fair. Could be value.
Star Impulse: Close first up and then won just last start controlling the pace. Down 1kg today but will find this race even harder and be outclassed it seems on form.
Summer Gem: A horse that threatened to produce a good win last prep in much harder company. Trained on for 5 months and if produces best, will be the one to beat.
Schussing: Hard to have her today off previous runs. Has to find a few more lengths.
Winta Chiller: Disappointing last start at the valley but could surprise today with a much stronger run.
Flemington Race 2
Goldslick: Keep hearing strong claims for this horse but hasn’t produced enough this prep to suggest can win today.
Aeronwy: A horse with a large amount of ability. Better suited to the longer distances but will still run very well today. Key form line beating Genuine Spin over 1740 last prep by 2.3L. Could surprise and steal it.
Rose Pattern: The one to beat today. Up 5.5kg today which is a fairly big hit compared to Goldslick who remains at the same weight, but she has the ability on previous starts to win today. Big chance.
Arctic Flight: Keeps putting in strong runs but looks a little outclassed today.
Lady Chopin: Good start to finish win last start at Bendigo but off the weight may find this a little hard.
Classic Elle: Up in class today after not winning again last start. May be better suited to the longer straight today but it is hard to have her as the form lines around her haven’t really held up this prep.
Motto’s Gem: Meets Rose Pattern 5.5kg better off today. Could surprise and go close on that previous run 2.5L behind.
Rilelilmag: Only placed 1 from 9 at distance and never placed from 5 first up. Looking for further.
Street Diamond: Looks to be suited by further distances than this today. Also didn’t handle Flemington in a much harder race first try here. Is weighted nicely but has to improve significantly today.
Dark Sun: Bottom weight today but even on that, needs to find 3-4L.
Cinnamon Sticks: Not a chance today on previous form.
Flemington Race 3
Tramntana: Good run here last start behind a runner in Big Bear Rock who could be the real deal. Could improve on that run and if so, is a big chance.
Emboldened: 6 wins from 6 starts at distance although never won at track from 4 tries. Has won 4 placed 3 from 10 at class which is strong form. Needs to position forward today to be in with a chance compared to last start.
Oustandingly: A solid third in harder company at course over 1200m last start. Up 3kg today which seems fair. Especially when you consider he is 3.5kg better off than last two runs in this class. Could be a very strong chance today.
Belfast Boy: Formlines show a fair bit of ability but hasn’t shown it the last two starts. Hard to have but wouldn’t be shocked by a win.
From the Vault: Never won at course or distance and only once from nine starts at class. Has the ability but should find this distance a little too fast for him.
Jackpot Queen: A big chance on 2YO form with a 0.1L win over African Pulse at course and distance in very strong time. 2kg claim today down to 56kg suits and if trained on over the year will be very hard to beat.
Jeteven: Others favoured here today. He is getting a little old and never placed from 5 starts here.
Paaratte Pat: Strong run last start behind Big Bear. Weighted equally today and looks progressive. Big chance today if finds best.
Snapparazi: Didn’t show enough with a strong run last start to say that he could improve enough second up here today to win.
Chelembra: Got the closest to Big Bear Rock last start and up 0.5kg after claim today for that. The form came from no where and could improve again today. Looks suited to straight tracks.
Don’t Wake Me: Up in class today and down 3kg. very strong run last start to win at Caulfield when blocked for run. Could find best today and goes well at distance.
Lone Star: Doesn’t look strong enough to win this today.
Spartan Warrior: Disappointing last start when had every chance at course and distance. Others preferred.
Dad Knows Best: Big chance at the weights. 3kg better off today than most runners out of the Big Bear Rock race. Expect him to position better today and finish strong late..
Red Rain: Doesn’t look good enough here today even though weighted nicely.
Flemington Race 4
Chasse: Super disappointing last start at course and distance. Up 4kg today. Can’t have. Looks under the odds big time.
Macedonian: Up 3kg today, can’t have on previous form.
Alcohol: Up 3kg today and meets a few from the last start win either better off at the weights or equal. The one to beat.
Dark Note: Finally showed some progression last start. Up 3kg today equal with Alcohol and it is hard to see him turning the form around. Never placed from 18 starts on a good track.
Tuscan Fire: The main danger to Alcohol today, Ran a VERY fast 1:59.2 from start to finish 0.1L 2nd here just a week and a bit ago. Down 0.5kg today and if produces anything close to this run, will be hard to beat.
Kutchinsky: Down 2.5kg today but won’t be enough for this runner who will appreciate the up in distance to 2000m.
Cry In Awe: A good horse but looks outclassed here today on previous runs.
Beer Garden: Not the worst but seems outclassed today.
Lonhreign: Never ran this distance and hasn’t won for more than a year. Some ‘ok’ runs this prep but not in this.
Flemington Race 5
Unusual Suspect: Just keeps progressing. Kent has somehow got this horse right and is producing some of his best runs ever. Meets others worse off at the weight today which is a concern but other than that, has a good chance today.
King Diamond: Big win two back and then last start just couldn’t get the win. 1kg better off today on Unusal suspect puts him ahead of the 9YO.
I’m Jake: 0.2L off the win last start, extra distance should suit him and down 1kg today will mean a strong run. Big chance as well.
You Think So: Down 3kg today off a very game win last start. Should be better at the longer distance but the long straight didn’t seem to suit as much as corners. May get found out but is still a massive hope.
Waratone: Form lines suggest simply ignore last start. Down 3kg today which should suit. Hard to back again today though off that run where got tongue over the bit. Could surprise and bounce back.
Crafty Cruiser: Down 5kg today so 2kg better off than Waratone and You Think So (Not sure how the handicapper figured that one out). A massive chance today but does seem better suited to the 2500m type races.
Muirfield: Nice run last start behind Alcohol and previous to that behind Le Roi. Looks to have a chance at a place but that’s about it.
Module: Only down 1.5kg today. Worse off at the weights by 1.5-3.5kg today. Can’t have.
Star of Jeune: Dead heat last start. Meets You Think So 4.5kg worse off at the weights. No chance.
Rock Robster: Form lines of this horse not very strong with Ivory Cross failing last start. Big step up in clas here. Too hard.
Warwarick: Hard mare to place. Won last start by 12L in a race much much easier than this. Still, could surprise and be there at the end.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Flemington Race 6
Good Ba Ba: Come out of retirement after a yea rand a half off this Gelding has won over $9 million. Last racing in Group 1s in Hong Kong, if produces similar to best of his career, can run well… but has never been over the 1000m distance, always 1400-1600. Happy to stay away from today.
Catapulted: Absolutely super win first up off the top weight of 60.5kg. Down 1.5kg today and is a massive chance today. The one to beat.
Outlandish Lad: Seemed to run a very strong race last start but got lucky to win. Only won 1 from 5 at track previously but on first up run can improve and be there at the end.
Elusive Touch: On form lines doesn’t seem good enough here today even off 54kg.
Bonnie Mac: Never run at track or class. Big step up today. has ability but must have trained on big time. Hard to see winning this.
Top Drop: Simple forgive run first up on a track that didn’t suit. Weighted nicely but never won from 13 tries at this class. Has a good second up record.
Adamantium: Big big big start to finish win at course and distance last start. Down 1.5kg today and is the main competitor.
Adamon: Not good enough on last start.
Hotham Heights: A horse we sprouked with chances this prep two back when 3.3L behind Catapulted. Worse off at the weights today even though a good run last start. Can’t have but will run on well.
Verdasco: Not good enough at the weights on recent runs.
Devils Force: Has some decent form lines but doesn’t look good enough to win here today. Never won from 5 at track.
Big Buddie: Another solid run last start at Flemington but meets Adamantium 1.5kg worse off today. Can’t see enough improvement to win today sadly.
Langridge Street: Needs further than this. Never won from 5 at track or first up from 3.
Flyingconi: Not good enough for this class today. Does run well at track is only positive.
Goldstone: Meets Big Bear Rock 2.5kg better off today and last start beat home Tariana which is a strong form line. May be suited by the extra 200m today.
Big Bear Rock: Super return to Melbourne last start winning in impressive fashion. Big chance.
Quaddie leg two: 2, 7, 15, 16
Flemington Race 7
Over Quota: Ran very well last start and off the top weight of 60kg again today will run strongly. Never won from 12 tries at 1400m and is more a 1600m/2000m horse IMO. Has the ability but this will be hard again.
Orbit Express: Down 0.5kg today after nice run 6th last start behind Adamantium. Ignore previous start, just write it off. Has the ability but may need to find more lengths today.
Chasm: Not good enough on last start and previous runs.
Bolton: Hasn’t returned in career best form this prep. Can’t have.
Galileo Gold: Never won in class but does run well first up. Never won at distance or at track big negatives. Is weighted well today off 51.5kg after claim. Hard to track progress but if trained on can run well today.
Giresun: Not good enough on first up run. Never placed at track and never won second up.
Laspiel: Down 1kg today but never won second up or at track and didn’t show enough.
Infinite Energy: Strong win first up this prep which was backed up with Le Bonsir winning last Saturday at Moonee Valley. Down 3kg today, a HUGE chance. Has won at Flemington before.
British General: Impressed in what looked like a fairly average race last start. Has the ability but needs to improve significantly today.
Dash For Viz: Not good enough on previous run this prep.
Le Remas: If wanted to win today, should have won last start. May be better suited lower in the weights but should find this hard.
Quaddie leg three: 9, 10
Flemington Race 8
Chille Express: Very strong run three back but hasn’t improved after that run. seemed to be suited by a very fast pace and not sure down to 1400m if best distance today. Has ability.
Vibrant Rouge: Big form lines having won 4 of all 5 starts including an impressive first and second up win the last two starts. Down 2kg today up in class. The one to beat.
Haussmann: Ran on very well last start behind Finishing Card. Could improve again today and is a very strong chance.
Praesentia: First up run did it easy this prep in front of very average horses. Step up today.
Another Blue Boy: Couldn’t win a lesser class race last start. Will struggle to lead this one up and win.
Smackdown: Very average run last start at the Valley. Weighted nicely today if goes to front and puts on the pace. Off the times of two back has a chance but does look outclassed.
Diamond Diggler: Not good enough on first two runs this prep.
Elwick Jack: Not progressive enough for this race.
Adjuster: Good maiden win two back and not the worst run last start at the valley. Could run a very solid race down 4kg.
Babur: Needs to find much more today down 3kg today. This is a similar class but the horses look much better than what beat him last start.
Crookhaven: If trained on, in with a chance today. Down to 1400m doesn’t look to suit.
Red Inca: Very strong run behind Lampedusa last start and previous to that good also. Has a chance.
Quaddie leg four: 3, 4, 7, 10, 13
Rosehill Race 1
Kristy Lee with a 0.2L second to Its A Dundeel last prep is a stand out.
Rosehill Race 2
Angelican is the horse showing us the most promise coming out of this race. Down 1.5kg which suits. Will be heading forward and be hard to hold out. 0.2L loss to Soros, 1.8L behind Travolta and 0.2L Princess Layla are strong enough form lines for us!
Rosehill Race 3
Not super confident on anything here. The favourite is a good horse and could simply just win this. Too Hi Tek meets it 2.5kg better off today than 4 runs back when he beat it home. The one we are most interested in is Urban Rocker. Good run last start behind Friday Hussy and should run well again today.
Rosehill Race 4
Three main chances in this race for us. The first is Treaty who ran 1.3L behind Heart Testa who is a strong horse to have form around. Down in class today but up 5kg. If given a good ride from barrier 3 will be VERY hard to beat. Jordan showed enough last start to suggest can progress in this class this prep. Only issue is distance may be too short. Finally, Hold Me Closer has been very progressive winning two back and then last start 2.3L win at Warwick Farm. Down 6kg today will go to the front and be very hard to pass.
Rosehill Race 5
Very hard to do but we are suggesting you forgive the last two runs of Zaratone this prep. First up run was super impressive and on that run will go very close to winning. There is no other natural leader in the race and from barrier 8 should cross and lead it up. Down to 56.5kg today which suits. The main danger is No Looking Back who was super impressive last prep in 2YO grades. Weighted nicely today and does have to have trained on, but should have!
Rosehill Race 6
Good luck getting a winner in this race. Many chances here. Angelus comes into this with great form around Scream Machine. Moriarty has form around Cantonese and is weighted nicely while four others come out of the All Legal winning race. Of those, Highly Recommended is one of the few who can change the place they race (a win over Ethiopia isn’t bad form) and is suited by the jump to 2000m.
Rosehill Race 7
Three chances we like in this race. The first is Hold Me Closer. Down in class after progressing but may line up in another race today. Can simply continue her form and win today if finds best. Contemplation is down in class after running 1.8L off My Sabeel last start who is a very strong form line horse. Finally, Project Compassion who ran second to Frozen Rope at a lesser track in a harder race comes in with some decent form and the claim puts her in with a chance.
Rosehill Race 8
Three main chances here today. She’s Clean looks very hard to beat down in class and only up 3kg after claim. Was a very strong win over Choice Words last start first up. Will have improvement to give again today. Inventive can be forgiven for last start when blocked for run and be judged on previous three runs. All of those runs put him in with a big chance today. Finally, City of Light has some similar form lines to She’s Clean with both of them beating home Berrimilla and off weights, similar distances. It is all about if City of Light has trained on, if so, wins this today, if hasn’t progressed as much as She’s Clean, then she most likely wins! A great race to watch this one.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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