Welcome to the weekly write up. As always, we are expecting a slow track in Melbourne with this type of weather around but we will have a double check over our tips at 10am when we go over scratchings and account for the track conditions. Hopefully we can get through the day without much rain. Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington Race 5 Gossip Girl
Result: Unplaced. Jockey went too hard too early and fell out in final 200m
Flemington Race 4 Baron Douro
Result: 3rd. Ran on well but couldn’t produce enough to win it. Photo for 2nd.
Bet Value Bet
Rosehill Race 6 Forty Thirty
Result: 2nd. Lead for the majority of the race but fell out in final 100m on a track that was certainly not suited to front runners the whole day.
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
One of those races that is just very hard to rate.
Dispatch won well last start and goes up 1kg for the effort. Get the feeling that the horse is looking for longer than the 1400m and for this reason alone can’t back it here against some other winners.
Stralia won a very good race first up in equal class and is up 3kg for that run. Step up 400m is a test but can produce form of last run and has big shot.
Escado won well first up and put in a brave effort last start in a 13 horse field to fall 0.5L short. No penalty on this run either. Big chance from barrier 1.
Haajon is an interesting runner with Newitt booked. Didn’t show much at all the last three starts but one to watch.
Only reason Hai Lil is short in betting is due to down 4.5kg from last run. On weight is in this but on form it a class below.
Flemington Race 2
Flash Of Doubt(SCRATCHED) will enjoy the trip over the lesser distance of 1000m having won in this distance before. 57kg seems reasonable and if produces best, is right in this race.
Delegance comes into this race with 1 win 1 place at the track and 1 win 2 places over 1000m. Comes into this off a six month break with some decent form lines. 58kg is probably a little heavy for this horse but if returns well, could be there.
Another quality horse resuming today is Leoncita. Starting with 58kg has won 3 and placed 1 from 6 at 1000m. Ignore the last start and look back to the two previous runs. Has won on heavy and placed on slow so won’t be worried by the ground. Looks to be the value of the race.
The form line behind Loveyamadly works out for this race and the weight is suitable. Down in class here after a nice run last up, you would expect her to improve on that run.
Ignore last run for Slewsay and look to previous runs in lesser company and more appropriate distances. Jumping with 52.5kg, this horse is very well handicapped for this race.
Finally Star Lani was impressive leading start to finish winning over 1000m by 5.5L. Big step up here, not sure if the horse will handle the ground. Seems a lay at the price.
Flemington Race 3
Very tricky race this one..
Start with the top weight in My Bentley. Won over course and distance two back impressively. Two before that same thing winning over course and distance. Only concern is the weight but seems fine here. Expect a good ride and for him to come at the 300 mark.
Fictional Account is an international raider who might be getting set for the Melbourne Cup. Seems suited by longer distances than the 2000m and am happy to be against her here.
Galileo Gold was super unlucky last start not to win. Equal class up slightly in weight and up in distance. Has never won at distance but looks well suited. Can’t be on him here but expect him to run a strong race and win wouldn’t shock.
Finally, Streaky Fella. Huge win two back and ran on well last start. Get the feeling that on the slowish ground that 2000m will suit better. 57kg is a disadvantage.
Result: Unplaced and Won at $11
Flemington Race 4
Baron Douro on form is big value in this race. 3 wins from 3 at distance and 2 wins from 2 at track. Won by 1.3L and 2.3L the last two runs including last up in this class. Even better, steps down 1.5KG weight from that win. Will be hard to beat.
Instalment was great last prep and comes back to Flemington in a lesser class race. Up 2kg in weight returning but has won both races at Flemington and 2 wins from 4 at distance. Has also won first up and barrier 2. Will go close if correct.
Bombalatomba comes back from a 3 month break. Has won first up before and back down to a reasonable weight in a much easier race than previous. If comes back with best form can win this.
Finally, Out Lucky Rain is a interesting runner with Nolen booked. Won well first up at Geelong and could improve.
Result: 3rd and Unplaced
Flemington Race 5
Gossip Girl was impressive last start and unlucky to be in a race where she found one too good. This is a big step down in grade and she is set to win here with a 3KG claim taking her to 56kg on the back. 2 wins 1 place at distance, 3 wins 1 place at class and 2 wins 1 place at track all suited.
Andromache has been impressive since coming over to Australia from New Zealand. Last start she just got too far back and tactics didn’t work out. This is the testing material but will run very well.
The Long Road has been putting in good runs this prep. I couldn’t back it here but am more than happy to say she will run well and be there at the finish in some way.
Big win by Neriani last up and runs well on this track and distance. Has won in this class 2 times before and placed 3 times from 8. Could go forwardish like she would and run well.
Flemington Race 6
Let’s start at the top with Domesky. Ignore last start where vet exam was needed and look to run two back behind Dance With Her. This form stacks up. Down to 58kg after claims, this is an interesting distance but Domesky could find a good run on a track he is yet to miss a place on in 4 runs.
Placement is a super star. 1 win 2 places from 4 first ups and 1 win 6 places from 8 starts at track… is suited here by the course and distance of 1600m. You might prefer her over 1800-2000 but will sill be suited here. Off 55kg has a big chance here.
Prince of Capers won very well last up at Caulfield and continues to improve. Weight is fair here. Last five runs he has won three with other two 2nds with excuses (vet exam/hung out) and lost plate. Could be the one to beat.
Not sure what to make of Cosmic Causeway. Last two runs has just not ran into the races. Looks to be progressing backwards and never run on well at Flemington before. Can’t be on him.
Great to see Streets Away back but didn’t want him in a race this hard. Never won in class but runs well over this distance including a 1.5L loss to Ginga Dude that is big form line.
Future Solution is a frustrating horse. Last three runs has been paying a good price and just not got there every time. Still on 54kg and in equal class. 100% he will be there at the end and there is no pace in this race so not sure will be suited compared to a horse like Placement who will be closer to the front.
Sophrosyne has been massively disappointing the last two runs but could run on well here.
Finally, Noble Park is a mega interesting runner. Weighted well and 1 win 2 places at Track and 2 wins at distance from 2. Ignore last start where horse lost plate and had a vet exam.
Result: Unplaced, Win at $8.50, Result: Unplaced
Flemington Race 7
Canali is resuming after 4 months off and has a good strike rate at distance and first up. Has never won on anything but Good which is a concern.
Shock Value put in a big run last start at course over a slightly longer distance and has to be suited by the 1000m. Might find a fair bit of speed in this race which could work against off 57kg but is in with a great shot from barrier 3.
Golden Archer was one of the better two year olds going around and progressed nicely into the three year old system. Seems hardly treated by the 58.5kg and barrier 10 is an issue to go forward with. Expect a bold run and Moody should have him right but I wouldn’t want to be backing him here at the price.
Beyond Pardon has been competitive the last four runs and even though not the best record over distance, class or at Flemington, won here two back.
Broken(SCRATCHED) was massive last start and is only up 1.5kg from that run. Has been threatening to win and certainly did that. Big chance.
Night War comes over from Perth with strong form lines. Is untested on wet tracks but with the times she has been putting down on Dead and Good, suspect no troubles. Newitt on board and 54kg seems set here.
TheBarwonPrince isn’t the worst horse going around and comes into this race off 52.5kg. He will run well here and should be included in first fours.
Result: Shock Value unplaced, Night War gone at 50m into race with interference so unplaced
Flemington Race 8
One of the most interesting races of the day. A few of the horses in this will either progress past their mark or fall backwards big time.
Infinite Energy is a horse that ran significantly above it’s mark last start and drops back down in grade here. Off 58kg seems to be fair but would expect a little more speed in this race. That impressive win was at course and distance so in with a huge shot.
Harmonic ran on well over 1400 last start and has consistent form. Is over the odds at $11s fixed right now.
Dayita is one we are willing to let go. Keeps finding a few too good for her and even though down 2.5kg is still hardly treated here.
He’s a Steal ran on gamely last start behind Infinite Energy and if the pace is faster today could be in it at the end.
Imoto was SUPER impressive last start winning by 3.5L in another slowly run race on the day. Before that won even more impressively by 7L in her Maiden race. Up 1kg here will be hard to hold out from the front and barrier 6 suits.
Result: Both runners unplaced. Infinite Energy given a poor 6 wide ride from 600m out. Imoto just didn’t find enough and went a little too wide too early. Winner found too much.
Rosehill Race 4
There are a fair few handy horses in this race but none more than National Theatre. Trialled VERY well during the week and looks set here. Ignore last start.. very disappointing and the race wasn’t run in a good time to suit from the back runs. Will get a better run off 1.5KG less while the winner of previous race he was in is up 1.5kg. We are opting for a saver on Seaside who was impressive winning last up.
Result: Unplaced and 2nd
Rosehill Race 6
I’m glad they elected to take Forty Thirty up to this BM-80 race at Rosehill. He seems suited to the 1500m race… the 1800 was too far last start and he should travel this out with ease. 57kg seems suitable for the class.
Rosehill Race 7
We had been waiting for it and Lethal Arrow finally delivered last start at $20-1. Up slightly in class here but off the same weight and distance at the same track, Lethal Arrow from barrier 8 is suited. Rates very well and everything is in his favour.
Eagle Farm Race 1
Warrior Within has been putting in big runs recently. Massively down in class here and somehow down 2.5kg from last run. Simply just runs on and wins here.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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