Horse Racing Form – Flemington, Rosehill and Ipswich – Saturday 16 June 2012

Horse Racing - Australia

Racing Review

A great day on the punt saw many followers make a fair bit of cash and to extend us to four winning weeks in a row. Our keenest of the day in Jingtai was scratched today and is set to run tomorrow.
Our best bet of the day Eucumbene was put up at $2.30 last night and won easy jumping a $1.85 fav and winning by 1.5L.

Ipswich – Twitter + Website bets
Started slowly with a 4th in the first race and skipping race two to find our first winner in the 3rd with Startsmeup at $2.70. Followed up by a close 2nd to Crosscannons in the 4th. Pick in the 5th didn’t position correctly.
We put up Warrior Within in the 6th as a good chance at long odds and ran on well for 3rd at $11 the place.
We put up Race 7 on the blog and it worked out as expected with Belltone at $3.20 winning and Jetset Lad 2nd.
The final race was the big one. We put up Epic Terra as top pick on Twitter and it ran home 3rd at $21 the place.

Rosehill – Twitter + Website bets
We stayed away from the first three races at Rosehill to see how the ground was going.
Our best bet of the day Eucumbene won easily at $2.30 and that was backed up by another of our backs in the next race with Adroitly winning at $2.10 in the 5th. Race 6 didn’t go to plan and Havana Rey didn’t run well today. That didn’t stop us though backing up into Race 7 and Thumbtacks winning at $6.80.
The final two races didn’t go exactly as planned with our pick in the 8th not placing and the 9th two put up in Turf Hero and Nash Rambler finishing 2nd and 3rd.

Flemington – Website + Twitter bets
As expected Race 1 was a very low bet race and nothing worked for us.
Race 2 went to plan after our best roughie of the day was scratched with Platelet winning at $3
Race 3 was a tough one as mentioned and Aeronwy who started favourite ran on and won well.
Race 4 produced a surprise winner that we didn’t put in our top bets but put up on twitter as a late pick and it got up at $18 in My Bentley. Of course, this was a very low go. As you know, we said look elsewhere if slow track than back Magnifique Soliel.
Race 5 We were very confident on a big price $51 outsider in Prince Obama who came with an amazing late run and we thought he had pinched it but just fell short. $11 for the place was nice though. If you read over that race, we handicapped the race PERFECTLY. We didn’t have a go at the F4 in the race but just go down and read the notes… The first 4 paid $4917 on Vic TAB. Ouch!
Watch the race here
Race 6 The quality horse in the race won as expected at a nice $3 price, our second pick Gottino was disappointing. Didn’t run where he should have.
Race 7 Club Command put down a big run and won at $4s
Race 8 We skipped this race in the end as it was too open for our liking. As turns out, we were right with Gossip Girl winning at $7.70

Horse Racing Form – Flemington, Rosehill and Ipswich – Saturday 16 June 2012

Welcome to this weeks form. It’s good to be back from holiday’s and let’s pick a few good priced winners. While there aren’t many ‘big name’ runners this week, these types of fields scream out for long odds winners.

Multibet of the Week using Luxbet
Flemington R2 – Jingtai to Place – SCRATCHED
Rosehill Race 4 – Eucumbene to win
Rosehill Race 5 – Adroitly to win
Rosehill Race 6 – Havana Rey to place
Odds: $27.38

Bet Value Bet (E/W)
Flemington Race 2 – Jingtai – SCRATCHED

Best Bet
Rosehill Race 4 – Eucumbene

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington Race 1
One of those races you know we dislike. Many chances in this race.
There are two that stick out for us.
The first is Jarrah Twist. Won well by 1.3L on Slow track in a decent time sitting near the front (where we like them). Down 2.5kg after claim for that run with Noonan onboard. Barrier 9 a slight issue but hopefully gets out well like last start and gets across.
The other is a big price with Newitt onboard. Newitt keeps bringing in the long odds winners. Barrier 5 and will go forward, Dispatch has some decent runs to it’s name and ignore last start. If has trained on a little bit can win this.
Confidence: 65%

Flemington Race 2
Platelet deserves to be favourite here and around $3 seems like the right price to be backing her. 58.5kg after claim and starting from barrier 1 (will take a sit) seems suited here. Constantly running well and down in grade could be what she needs.
Song of the Bell is a horse that could find her best here. Treated well by the weights and if trained on, could pinch this. Barrier 7 is ideal and will sit back midfield.
The most interesting runner in this race is Jingtai – SCRATCHED. Ran very well first up almost a year ago beating a handy horse named Stratigraphy who has gone on to place in this grade. That day things went wrong for Jingtai and she still won by 1.8L on heavy. Dunn booked and barrier 3, looks suited.
Grecian Melody has some good times over 1200 on record and Nolen on board. May be looking for longer than 1200 but on recent form could run well.
Finally, Handcut booked with Newitt seems interesting.
Confidence: 80%

Flemington Race 3
A hard race to pick the winner in.
Manila Jewel ran very well two back and won easily by 4.3L beating The Nights Hot. Last start just beaten and is down 1.5kg from that run in equal class. Will be there at the end for sure. Only concern if slow track is record on slow.
The Night’s Hot is hard to place here. Down to 54.5kg after winning in an open class last up yet 4.3L behind Manila Jewel the run before that.. and beating Manila Jewel by 1.3L the run before that. Good stats on Slow and dead, especially at the distance. Will run well.
Blue Nile is hard to place. Got a Vet Exam after running favourite last start after finishing dead last. Happy to avoid it against the top two in this race.
Confidence: 75%

Flemington Race 4
Very very very hard race to choose the winner.
Harry Trimbole – SCRATCHED off 54kg and Dunn on board coming off a very big win over Zaamore last start is one to consider. Comes into this very well.
Dubhdara is very interesting. Is a Hurdle horse but does have form over this distance and in this class back in New Zealand. 52.5kg could help it get close.
Big run last up by Model To Nite, if repeats this form is in for a big run. If the ground is Slow, can’t have her.
Doosra Diamond is suited to longer distances than this but with a nice weight, if taken forwardish apart a nice ‘run’ last start, could run on well.
Newitt booked on GeeJayHaitch. The horse hasn’t shown enough for us to consider it. Never won in this class or at track.
TurnItUp has been consistently running well but not winning. Has never missed a place over this distance and 55kg after claim makes the horse well placed.
Back runners not suited by pace last start on the slow track so ignore My Bentleys run last up. Could come home strong.
The two we are interested in here are the two toppies.
Montgomery has run well recently at the track and won last start on slow. 59kg is a little harsh on the horse but does have the ability to win this.
Magnifique Soleil* is the one we like here. We just can’t be backing him on a slow track but will certainly be all over him if the track is Dead. 58kg is fine over this course and distance in this class. Will run another quality race with barrier 2 helping.
Confidence: 60%

Flemington Race 5
A tricky race.
Rue Maple deserves to be a short favourite on recent form running well on any type of ground. Comes into this with no weight on her back with 52.5kg so expect some fast times. Her first up 2.3L win was franked eariler in week with Silkstone Special also winning.
Prince Obama is a horse going under the radar. If you ignore the last four starts on his record, he has a perfect record with 4 wins and 8 places from 12 races. You also have to consider two of his last four races (pre break) were in WFA-G2 class. Last two starts been ridden out the back which this horse isn’t suited to. Expect Yendall to take him forward and stay on big time. They will probably scratch him if the track isn’t dead or better.
Verdasco is a horse with big raps on him. Ignore last start and the two runs before that have been quality. Could find best here with newitt onboard.
Wealthy Lad finally got a win last start. More quality and depth in this race. Will be suited by a slower course. That race was run in a really poor time.. expect a faster race that won’t suit.
I don’t like Tramuntana on recent form but worth considering with 52kg on it’s back from barrier 1.
Shock Value has been running solid races recently. 56.5kg looks about where he should be but has never won on anything apart from Good. Has never not missed a place on Dead or Slow in 4 starts. Will run a good solid race and be close.
Finally, ignore Perturbo’s first up run. Will run a better race here.
Confidence: 70%

Flemington Race 6
Philda looks to be well held off 58kg after claims here. Many people have been giving it a chance but I haven’t seen ayhting this start that would make me back him. Could be proven wrong back up to 1600.
Lord Pyrus has been solid this prep. Last two races finshed 2nd on slow/heavy… could be looking for a slow to dead track to find best. Barrier 11 a concern going forward.
Eraset won very well two back at Flemington and before that ran a nice 2nd. If the track is suiting runners from the back… Eraset could be big value here. Only concern is the weight in this class… will certainly be there at the end.
Our Pride and Joy is a horse full of quality and will run well here again. Has to improve big time from last run to win here but should show more than last start.
Ladramhas isn’t the worst in the race for sure. taken more forward last start from an inside barrier (similar this week) and similar weight to win. Big step up in class.
Gottino is the most interesting here. 54kg is a good weight for this horse. Ignore last start and look back to previous four runs. All were quality and this is an easier race than those. Could find best here.
Confidence: 60%

Flemington Race 7
Composing is an interesting runner. Chances are it doesn’t produce anything but did win well at Geelong by 5L. Down 6kg from that run in decent time over the 1300 and should enjoy the extra 100m. barrier 6 will suit also.
Cliques comes into this race with a good 3L run three back and then a nice 3rd 1.8L at Flemington before that. Times are sound from both runs. Went back last start and wasn’t suited by the 1200m. Has the ability to win this.
Dayita was massive down in class last start winning by 5L. From barrier 5 with Nolen on board, could do similar here.
Karacatis has run 5 times and never finished outside 2nd. Race times hold up but the horse has only ever raced in Adelaide and on Good ground. Quite a few questions here and looks harshly treated on the weights with 57.5kg.
The two to beat are at the top of the market here.
Manhattan Maid has been running well in lesser grades than this winning 2 from 2 at Flemington. Might not have enjoyed Caulfield in the trip between.
Club Command can be forgiven for run two back and we need to focus on last up 1.3L win on slow. Will enjoy a slow or dead track and runs out the front. Barrier 16 is a massive issue but can get over no problems from previous experience. 56.5kg is suitable.
Confidence: 65%

Flemington Race 8
Vintage Triumph was MASSIVE last start at Flemington in lesser class. Weighted well here with Dunn on board from barrier 7. Hayes has the ability to get these types of horses to go well first up. Ground may be the only issue but on times, gets in very well here.
Legions Belle ran well first up over the 1000m. Up to the 1200 should suit and will not be worried but the ground being slow or dead. Always goes close at Flemington.
Songbird Lane won well last up but times are a little too slow to consider.
Same as above with Pyreness Express
There has been some mail around for Charlottes Mint. Off the last run I can’t see the horse winning in this grade.
Rapidment won well last start beating Legions Belle. Barrier and jockey are to suit and should get a dream run. 1/1 on Flemington. Will be there at the finish.
Inablitz with Newitt onboard. Barrier 12 is fine as the horse will go back but get the feeling this grade is simply too strong for her once again.
Spurcific has had 4 starts this prep and not come closer than 1.5L. Starting a 4.40 favourite, I just think the horse is too short here. Happy to look elsewhere.
Gossip Girl is the final one we look at. Won in previous prep at course on a slightly longer distance. Not sure if it will be able to hold the front for the whole trip here on previous runs form. If dead track, consider.
Confidence: 60%

Rosehill Race 4
Eucumbene was super impressive last start winning a similar race by 4.8L. Barrier 1 will suit once again. 4KG rise is a little harsh but after a 3.3L win the run before in similar company also, it is deserved. Nothing in this race looks up to the same class.
Confidence: 90%

Rosehill Race 5
There is no doubt that the quality horse in this race is Adroitly. Has been running brilliantly as of late and seems suited here with Reuben Percival scratched. Only question is the extra 800m but doesn’t seem a problem.
Confidence: 85%

Rosehill Race 6
Havana Rey was brilliant last start winning at $60-1 for us. He is back down in class here from barrier 4 and will go forwardish. 57kg is suitable and everything seems positive.
Confidence: 75%

Ipswich Race 7
Belltone deserves to be favourite but the real class act coming over from New Zealand is Jetset Lad. Has run some massive times and won a Group 3 four back and 0.8L 4th in Group 1 class two back. Ignore first up run from back of field. Hopefully given a better ride at big odds.
Confidence: 70%

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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